Bayern Munich faces Dortmund in the Bundesliga on Saturday evening. Die Roten have lost just three matches all season but have parted ways with coach Julian Nagelsmann and appointed former Dortmund and Chelsea coach, Thomas Tuchel. BVB goes into this match with a two-point lead at the top of the table.
Bayern Form
Bayern’s decision to sack Nagelsmann came as a huge surprise. They have only won five of their last ten league matches and have lost two of their last five, though. After winning 1-0 at PSG, they were beaten 3-2 at Borussia Monchengladbach. Three successive wins followed that shock loss, starting with a 3-0 thrashing of another title rival in Union Berlin.
Die Roten then went to Stuttgart and won 2-1 before beating PSG 2-0 at home to progress to the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals. Four goals scored in 31 minutes in their next league match made light work of Augsburg in a 5-3 win. Last time out, they produced just 0.95 Expected Goals in a 2-1 loss at Leverkusen.
Bayern Team News
Thomas Tuchel will be without two long-term injury victims in goalkeeper Manuel Neuer and defender Lucas Hernandez. Striker Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting has 10 Bundesliga goals this season and could return from a recent back problem.
In the recent past, Tuchel has favoured a 3-4-3 formation and Bayern used that in the Leverkusen defeat. It could be a similar back seven to that match but both Jamal Musiala and Serge Gnabry will hope for recalls after their half introductions last time out.
Bayern Motivation
Bayern will see this as a must-win and not just for their title chances and to regain the top spot. After the big call to sack the coach, the board will expect to see a real improvement in results and performances.
Tuchel’s sides tend to favour plenty of possession and control so they will always have an eye on Dortmund’s counters. The coach will be very eager to beat his former employers.
Dortmund Form
BVB lost three of their six league matches before the World Cup, but have been outstanding since then. They won their first 10 matches after the resumption with 25 goals scored. That included a 1-0 first-leg win against Chelsea in the UEFA Champions League round of 16 and a 2-1 win against title challengers RB Leipzig to temporarily move to the summit.
Since that league win, they’ve had a slight dip. They lost the second leg 2-0 to Chelsea as they conceded 2.00 xG and only produced 0.87 xG from 60% possession at Stamford Bridge. A 2-2 draw at Schalke in their next match saw two leads squandered despite 20 shots and 66% of the ball. They put those blips behind them with a 6-1 thrashing of FC Koln in their last match, leading 4-0 after 36 minutes.
Dortmund Team News
This match is expected to come too soon for speedy winger Karim Adeyemi, forward Youssoufa Moukoko, and young winger Jamie Bynoe-Gittens. Sebastien Haller has started to score regularly again and will lead the line. Winger Donyell Malan is fully back from injury now and could play down the right with Julian Brandt still on the comeback trail from a torn muscle.
Centre-back Nico Schlotterbeck was ruled out of German action but is set to be fit to start this one. The return to fitness of Mahmoud Dahoud should see him preferred to Salih Özcan whilst Emre Can return from suspension so Raphael Guerreiro could revert to left back once again after deputising.
Dortmund Motivation
This is a huge match for Dortmund who can establish themselves as title front-runners with a victory. A draw would keep them at the summit and would also be a good result.
Edin Terzic’s team are pretty open and won’t sit back. They may gain extra motivation from facing their former coach, Thomas Tuchel.
Key Stats
Bayern are unbeaten in 19 home Bundesliga matches (form: DDWWW)
Bayern Munich have scored 2+ goals in 7 of their last 9 home league matches
The last 7 meetings between these sides have seen 33 goals
Dortmund have won 9 of their last 10 matches (Bundesliga)
BVB have scored 2+ goals in 6 of their last 7 away league matches
Dortmund have lost their last 9 away Bundesliga matches vs Bayern Munich
Verdict
This fixture tends to have loads of goals. Bayern have a superb home league record against Dortmund and are tipped to get off to a winning start under Thomas Tuchel.
Best Bet: Bayern Munich win and over 2.5 goals at 1.90
Value Bet: Bayern Munich win and over 3.5 goals at 2.65
Alternative Bet: Bayern Munich (-1 handicap) at 2.10
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