Bayern Munich v Bayer Leverkusen – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Bayern Munich face Bayer Leverkusen in a top-of-the-table clash on Friday night. Both sides have taken nine points from three Bundesliga fixtures. Xabi Alonso’s side won the last meeting between these teams back in March and new striker Victor Boniface has netted four goals already. The Nigerian will be looking to outshine Harry Kane in this clash.

Bayern Form

Die Roten have won all three of their Bundesliga matches this season. Before that, they were humbled 3-0 in the German Super Cup final by RB Leipzig. They had 67% possession and missed all six of their ‘big chances’ in that loss. Their opening league match brought a 4-0 victory at Werder Bremen thanks to three goals in the final 20 minutes.

A dominant 3-1 home win over Augsburg came next as Bayern put up 2.90 xG and 19 shots. Their final match before the FIFA break saw an 87th-minute winner in a 2-1 victory away at Borussia Monchengladbach. Thomas Tuchel’s side were dominant as they outshot their opponents 25-7 and created 2.37 xG. At home, they have lost just one league match since January 2022.

Bayern Team News

Veteran goalkeeper Manuel Neuer is back in full training but this match may come too soon for him. Sven Ulreich will deputise once again. Jamal Musiala is fit again after a hamstring injury suffered against Werder Bremen. Raphael Guerreiro has a calf injury after his move from Dortmund but he could be back amongst the subs in this one. Joshua Kimmich is a doubt with a muscle injury.

Thomas Tuchel must decide between Serge Gnabry and Thomas Muller for the final spot in support of Harry Kane. Noussair Mazraoui will play at right back again with midfielder Konrad Laimer as the only other option.

Bayern Motivation

They will go all out to win this match. Tuchel will look to control the tempo and not commit too many men forward.

A draw would not be a disaster but a win would show that the coach is making progress and Bayern won’t settle for a point unless they’re down to ten men.

Leverkusen Form

Xabi Alonso’s side have won all of their league matches this season having finished sixth last term. Their season started with an 8-0 win over minnows Teutonia Ottensen in the DFB Pokal before a fine 3-2 win over RB Leipzig to start the Bundesliga in an even affair. A resounding 3-0 win at Borussia Monchengladbach as they outshot their opponents 24-12 and put up 2.74 xG.

Their final match going into the FIFA break saw Leverkusen thrash freshly promoted Darmstadt 5-1 at home. Striker Victor Boniface netted a second successive brace in a one-sided clash. Alonso’s team had 72% possession, 25 shots, and 2.83 Expected Goals.

Leverkusen Team News

The team is very settled right now in their 3-4-2-1 shape. Big-name striker Patrik Schick is out injured after groin surgery whilst key centre-back Piero Hincapie is yet to play this season having broken his ankle last term. Winger Amine Adli returns to the fray after suspension but he will have to settle for a place on the bench.

Right back Arthur is ruled out for three months with a hamstring injury sustained on international duty with Brazil under 23s. Newly signed forward Nathan Tella may make his debut from the bench after his £20m move from Southampton.

Leverkusen Motivation

Die Werkself play an expansive game with their wingbacks bombing forward. They will take the game to Bayern and try to get a very rare win in Bavaria.

A draw would be a good result too having lost this fixture 4-0 last season. Xabi Alonso won’t approach the match with designs on a one-point haul though.

Key Stats

Bayern have won 21 of their last 26 home matches against Leverkusen (all competitions).

Bayern’s last 7 home Bundesliga matches have seen Over 2.5 goals

Bayern Munich have scored in each of their last 30 league matches

Leverkusen have seen Over 2.5 goals in 12 of their last 14 matches vs. FC Bayern

Leverkusen’s Boniface has scored 4 goals this season in 3 outings

Bayer Leverkusen have won just once in 5 away Bundesliga matches (DDDLW)

Verdict

This should be a high-quality game. Bayern’s matches have plenty of goals and they haven’t kept many clean sheets of late. Backing both teams to score and a home win looks like great value. The goalscorer market could also prove lucrative with Kane and Boniface on fire.

Best Bet: Bayern Munich win and Over 2.5 goals at 1.95

Alternative Bet: Bayern Munich win and Both Teams to Score at 2.45

Goalscorer Tip: Kane and Boniface to both score anytime at 5.16

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis