Brighton v Liverpool – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Brighton host Liverpool at the AMEX on Saturday in the Premier League. The Seagulls sit just one point behind the Reds and drew 3-3 at Anfield earlier this season in Roberto de Zerbi’s first match in charge. Jurgen Klopp’s side have lost two of their five matches since the World Cup break and are looking to get back on track here.

Brighton Form

After going winless in his first five matches in charge, including a 3-3 draw at Anfield, De Zerbi has Brighton in the outstanding form right now. His side have six wins in nine matches in all competitions, whilst scoring 24 goals. After beating Chelsea 4-1 at home, they won 3-2 at Wolves and then 3-1 at Arsenal in the Carabao Cup. A shock 2-1 home loss to Aston Villa followed prior to the World Cup break.

Since the resumption, they’ve won 3-1 at Southampton and lost 4-2 at home to Arsenal in the league. They immediately bounced back by thrashing Everton 4-1 at Goodison Park and then winning 5-1 at Middlesbrough in the FA Cup.

Brighton Team News

Jakub Moder remains out long-term in midfield and Leandro Trossard is very doubtful to play due to a calf injury. De Zerbi has Adam Webster back from a long injury at Middlesbrough but Levi Colwill is set to keep his place alongside Lewis Dunk for now.

The coach may hand young striker Evan Ferguson another chance after scoring in successive Premier League matches, whilst Deniz Undav is back in attack to boost options too. Alexis Mac Allister should start after being eased back after his World Cup success. He netted two goals against Middlesbrough from the bench.

Brighton Motivation

De Zerbi’s side will play on the front foot, looking to build up and press high and use the quick tempo he prefers. They will play to win this match and won’t set up for a point.

A draw would be a good result but is not one they will settle for at any point.

Liverpool Form

The Reds have lost four of their last ten league matches and sit seventh in the table, seven points off the top four. After the defeat at Nottingham Forest (0-1) and at home to Leeds (1-2), Klopp’s side won four league matches in a row. There was some fortune in those results as their 2-1 win at Tottenham and their 3-1 win at Aston Villa saw their opponents create plenty.

That Villa win came after a 3-2 Carabao Cup exit after the World Cup break. A 2-1 home win against Leicester followed (again, giving up lots of good chances) before losing 3-1 at Brentford after being exposed on set plays and counter attacks. Their last match saw a 2-2 home draw in the FA Cup against a heavily-rotated Wolves side. Liverpool were fortunate not to lose after a late Wolves goal was incorrectly ruled offside.

Liverpool Team News

The Reds are without long-term injury victim Luis Diaz as well as defensive lynchpin Virgil Van Dijk. Joel Matip will partner with Ibrahima Konate at centre back. Darwin Nunez should shake off a knock to start alongside Mohamed Salah and Cody Gakpo in the front three.

Roberto Firmino and James Milner have been carrying knocks but should be fit for the bench once again. Midfield is the question mark with Fabinho out of form. It could be Jordan Henderson in the holding role with Harvey Elliot or Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain completing the trio.

Liverpool Motivation

Klopp’s side will go all out for three points to close the gap to the top four. The loss of Van Dijk may force a more circumspect approach to protect his backline.

A draw would be seen as a poor result and Klopp will chase the result by adding extra attackers if needed. That may open them up to counters from Brighton, a weakness for Liverpool defensively this season.

Key Stats

Brighton have scored 24 goals in their last 9 matches (all comps)

Brighton have conceded in 10/11 PL matches under De Zerbi (20 conceded)

Brighton have won 4 of their last 6 matches (PL)

Liverpool have lost 4 of their last 10 PL matches

LFC have conceded in 7 PL matches in a row (10 goals leaked)

LFC have dropped 7 points in their last 5 PL matches vs Brighton (DLDWD)

Verdict

This should be a really good match. Brighton tend to score and concede plenty whilst Liverpool look a mess defensively right now. It’s quite possible we could see a goal-fest in this match.

Best Bet: Over 3.5 goals at 2.35
Alternative Bet: Brighton Win at 3.20
Multiplier Leg: Brighton/draw double chance + over 2.5 goals at 3.10
Anytime Goalscorer: Salah at 2.65

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis