Bayern Munich v Real Madrid – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Bayern Munich face Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League semi-final first leg on Tuesday. Die Roten coach Thomas Tuchel is looking to make a third final in the last five years. Los Blancos are unbeaten in seven matches versus Bayern with three successive victories in Germany against them.

Bayern Form

After three successive defeats, Bayern’s last 12 matches have seen just two losses. A 2-0 home loss to Dortmund preceded a 3-2 defeat at newly promoted FC Heidenheim. They drew 2-2 at Arsenal in the first leg of their UEFA Champions League quarter-final.

A 2-0 home win over Cologne preceded a fine 1-0 home win over Arsenal in the second leg. Bayern limited the Gunners to just two shots in the second half. Since then, Die Roten have won at Union Berlin and 2-1 vs Eintracht Frankfurt on Saturday. 

Bayern Team News

Bayern have Alphonso Davies available at left-back after suspension. Sacha Boey and Bouna Sarr are out injured in defence. Dayot Upamecano has been carrying a knock and Matthijs de Ligt was injured in the last match and is doubtful here.

Kingsley Coman is set to miss out whilst Leroy Sane is doubtful. Serge Gnabry is tipped to shake off an injury to play some part. Konrad Laimer twisted his ankle in the last match and that could force a rejig with Joshua Kimmich moving back into midfield.

Bayern Motivation

Bayern and Tuchel are very eager to end this season on a high. They feel they can win this tie and reach the final.

This first leg will be crucial and they need to take risks to try to win ahead of travelling to Spain.

Real Madrid Form

Los Blancos have only been beaten twice all season and just once in La Liga. They are unbeaten in 10 matches in the UEFA Champions League. A 2-0 home win over Athletic Bilbao preceded a crazy 3-3 home draw vs Man City in Europe. A 1-0 win at Mallorca followed in La Liga between the two City legs.

A 1-1 draw at Man City was followed by a win on penalty kick. Real Madrid were outshot 33-8 over 120 minutes in that match. Following that success on penalties, a late goal brought a 3-2 home win over Barcelona in El Clasico. Their last match saw them grind out a 1-0 win at Real Sociedad.

Real Madrid Team News

Carlo Ancelotti is without Dani Carvajal at right back with Lucas Vazquez set to deputise. Both Rodrygo and Vinicius Jr. were given breathers on Friday night and will return to start here.

Goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois and David Alaba will play no part but Eder Militao is pushing to start at the back after his long-term injury. Aurélien Tchouaméni is available having served a suspension in the quarter-final second leg.

Real Madrid Motivation

Madrid will be pragmatic and shrewd in this match. They won’t care about possession or defending high up the pitch.

A draw in Germany would be a great result and Carlo Ancelotti may set up not to lose this first leg.

Key Stats

Bayern are winless in 7 games against Real Madrid (lost 6)

Bayern have lost just 1 of their last 24 home games in the UCL (20 wins, 3 draws)

Bayern Munich have conceded in 14 of their last 17 matches

Real Madrid have lost just 2 matches all season (1 loss in the last 41)

Real Madrid have conceded in 8 of their last 10 away UCL matches

Madrid have also won each of their last 3 away games vs Bayern

Verdict

This first leg should see both sides on target. Madrid have the experience and know-how to leave Bavaria with a draw.

Best Bet: Both Teams to Score at 1.51

Value Bet: Draw at 3.50

Goalscorer Tip: Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham to both score anytime at 5.75

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis