Bayern Munich v PSG – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Bayern Munich hosts PSG at the Allianz Arena on Wednesday night in the UEFA Champions League. The first leg was settled by a Kingsley Coman goal against his former club, handing Die Roten a 1-0 win in Paris. Bayern have lost just twice in the competition since 2019 and PSG faces the tough task of overturning the deficit without some key players.

Bayern Form

The German giants are unbeaten at home all season and they’ve only lost twice on the road. After a loss at Augsburg in September, they responded with 12 wins in the next 13 fixtures. After the two-month World Cup break, they returned to action with three successive draws. Die Roten were back to their best going into the first PSG leg (after successive league wins) and took a 1-0 win in France.

A bit of a Champions League hangover affected them a few days later in losing 3-2 at Borussia Monchengladbach albeit played 82 minutes with ten men after Dayot Upamecano’s red card. A 3-0 win at Union Berlin preceded a 2-1 win at Stuttgart in their last match to take Bayern back to the top of the Bundesliga.

Bayern Team News

Bayern are without Manuel Neuer due to injury whilst Lucas Hernandez and Noussair Mazraoui are also out. Benjamin Pavard was red-carded in the first leg so Julian Nagelsmann has some tough decisions in his backline.

He could decide to draft Daley Blind into a back three with Joao Cancelo as a right wingback, though the Portuguese have fallen out of favour of late. Sadio Mane is back from injury and pushing for a start, but Kingsley Coman, Serge Gnabry, and Leroy Sane are more match fit and could get the nod ahead of the Senegalese.

Bayern Motivation

Bayern have to approach this match carefully. They need to attack and get another goal but they also won’t want to allow space to Mbappe on the break.

Nagelsmann’s team will have to pick their moments carefully. They will especially not want to expose their right side by over-committing. A draw is enough to progress.

PSG Form

PSG have been far from their best since the turn of the year. They’ve lost three of their last nine Ligue 1 fixtures have still have an eight-point lead at the top of the table. They went into the first leg against Bayern in poor form having lost 2-1 to Marseille in the Coupe de France and 3-1 at Monaco in the Ligue 1.

The first leg in Paris vs Die Roten saw a poor first half with just one shot and 0.10 xG produced. They improved in the final 30 minutes but couldn’t find an equaliser. PSG have won three league matches in a row since then, scoring 11 goals (with Mbappe scoring five of those goals and Messi three). Their weekend result was a 4-2 home win against Nantes with the best available XI selected.

PSG Team News

The big difference from the first leg is that Kylian Mbappe is fit again and ready to start. His introduction in the first leg changed that game completely. Neymar has been ruled out for the reason of the season so it’ll be Mbappe and Lionel Messi in the front two.

In defence, Presnel Kimpembe is out so Sergio Ramos and Danilo Pereira could form a back three with Marquinhos. Achraf Hakimi could be fit to start after a hamstring complaint otherwise Nordi Mukiele could deputise. Marco Verratti is suspended for this match in midfield, a big blow. Galtier could use a 4-4-2 diamond but a 3-5-2 is more likely.

PSG Motivation

PSG will be 100% motivated and focused on this match. The Champions League is the holy grail for the club and most of the players have been pacing themselves in league action to be ready for this tie.

The Parisians are 1-0 down and have no choice but to attack. They’ll defend in numbers with eight outfield players behind the ball with Messi and Mbappe staying high to conserve energy for attacks.

Key Stats

Bayern have won 5 of their last 6 matches vs PSG

Bayern have scored 2+ goals in their last 4 home matches vs PSG

Bayern-PSG matches have seen over 2.5 goals in their last 3 meetings in Germany

PSG have scored in their last 7 away UCL matches

PSG have seen Both Teams Score in 11 of their last 12 away matches in UCL

Verdict

There should be goals in this match, although we said that in the first leg. PSG are not at their best in recent months and the losses of Neymar, Kimpembe, and Verratti are significant. Bayern should be too strong at home.

Best Bet: Bayern Munich win at 1.83

Alternative Bet: Over 3.5 goals at 2.00

Value Bet: Bayern Munich win and Both Teams to Score at 2.85

Goalscorer Tip: Mbappe anytime scorer at 2.60

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis