Barcelona v Real Madrid – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Barcelona host Real Madrid on Sunday night at Camp Nou. Blaugrana sits nine points clear of Los Blancos with 13 matches left to play. A win for the hosts here would all but end the title race, while a win for Carlo Ancelotti’s side would throw the title race wide open. Xavi’s side have beaten Real twice since the year of the year in Cup competitions.

Barcelona Form

Barcelona have lost just twice since October. After eight successive victories, they drew 2-2 with Man Utd in the first of the Europa League’s last 32 ties. They were beaten 2-1 at Old Trafford in the return leg and a poor 1-0 loss at Almeria followed to end a seven-match winning streak in the league.

Xavi rallied his side and ground out a 1-0 win at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu in the Copa del Rey semi-final despite just four shots and 35% possession. Their low-scoring wins have continued by beating Valencia and Athletic Bilbao 1-0.   

Barcelona Team News

Xavi is hopeful that Pedri could return for this match after a month on the sidelines. Ousmane Dembele remains absent on the right wing where Raphinha will start. Ronald Araujo missed the last match through suspension but will return for this one.

Jules Kounde could move back out to right back with Araujo centrally. Another option is to use the latter at right back, where he did a number on Vinicius Jr. in the recent Cup victory. Robert Lewandowski is back from injury up front so Ferran Torres could play on the left. Another option is to recall Franck Kessie and use Gavi as a left-winger.

Barcelona Motivation

This is the second of three meetings between the sides in five weeks. Barcelona will be highly motivated to win this match and take a big step towards the title.

In the end, this is a must-not-lose fixture and Xavi will be quite satisfied to avoid defeat and keep a nine-point buffer at the top of La Liga.

Real Madrid Form

Madrid’s title defence has faltered in recent months. After a 1-0 loss at Mallorca, they lifted the FIFA Club World Cup. Two La Liga wins and a 5-2 thrashing of Liverpool at Anfield followed. That result seems to have flipped their focus to winning the UEFA Champions League again. With their eye off the ball domestically, they could only draw 1-1 late on vs city rivals, Atletico.

A 1-0 home loss to Barcelona followed in the Spanish Cup semi-final first leg before a toothless 0-0 draw at Real Betis. They beat Espanyol in their last league match to regain some focus. In midweek, they beat Liverpool 1-0 to progress to the quarter-finals 6-2 on aggregate.

Real Madrid Team News

Carlo Ancelotti had Ferland Mendy back on the bench vs Liverpool. David Alaba is also nearing a return to action and a late decision will be made on whether to throw him into the XI here. Nacho is more likely to deputise for the duo at left-back.

Eduardo Camavinga is set to keep his place in midfield after a strong outing against The Reds. Aurelien Tchouameni could be among the subs unless Real Madrid Toni Kroos is given a breather. As always, the question is over whether Karim Benzema is fit to play, not least two matches in a week. Rodrygo would deputise if the Frenchmen isn’t able to start.

Real Madrid Motivation

This is a must-win for Madrid if they want to win the league. A victory closes the deficit to six points. A defeat would make retaining the title impossible.

They’ll want to win this match and that would also create some momentum ahead of the cup meeting in a couple of weeks.

Key Stats

Barcelona have won 10 of their last 11 matches to zero

Barcelona have won their last 2 matches vs Real Madrid

Barca’s last 11 matches have seen them score 1 or fewer goals on 8 occasions

Real Madrid have seen Both Teams to Score NO in 7 of their last 9 away La Liga matches

Real Madrid have won their last 2 La Liga matches away at Barcelona (both Over 2.5 goals)

Verdict

This match is hard to predict. Barcelona are incredibly strong defensively and seems to have the formula to stop Real Madrid. Los Blancos come off the back of a big Champions League match and their older legs may not be able to deliver another big display.

Best Bet: Barcelona win/draw double chance + under 3.5 goals at 2.00

Alternative Bet: Barcelona win at 2.15

Value Bet: Barcelona win to zero at 3.95

Goalscorer Tips: Lewandowski and Benzema to both score anytime at 5.60

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis