Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid: Preview and Betting Tips | UCL 2025

Los Blancos hold a narrow 2-1 lead from the first leg. Atletico suffered a damaging La Liga defeat this weekend but they’ve lost just two of their last eight clashes with their city rivals.

Match: Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid
When: Wednesday, 12 March 2025, 22:00
Where: Riyadh Air Metropolitano

Atletico Madrid Form

Atletico are not on the best run of form right now. Their last 13 matches have seen just six wins with three defeats and four draws. A 1-0 loss at Leganes was followed by four wins in the next five fixtures. A 1-1 draw at Real Madrid preceded a 1-1 home draw vs Celta Vigo.

After a 3-0 win at Valencia, they played out a chaotic 4-4 draw at Barcelona, having led 2-0. After grinding out a 1-0 home win over Athletic Bilbao, they’ve lost their last two matches. A 2-1 first-leg loss at Real Madrid saw just 0.20 xG produced. On Sunday, they lost 2-1 at Getafe having led 1-0 after 87 minutes.

Atletico Madrid Team News

Atletico have a major doubt over Koke in central midfield. Rodrigo De Paul went off injured on Sunday and is doubtful for this one. Clement Lenglet is also a doubt in defence.

Conor Gallagher and youngster Pablo Barrios could play as the midfield two. Alexander Sorloth and Angel Correa will again be the two impact subs from the bench.

Atletico Madrid Motivation

Atletico have seen their confidence knocked in recent weeks. They have nothing to lose here and will take the game to their rivals.

An early goal would change the tie totally and Atleti can’t afford to concede first. They will gradually play their way into this match.

Real Madrid Form

Real Madrid have lost just twice in 16 matches. A loss in February was followed by a 1-1 home league draw vs Atletico Madrid and a 3-2 win at Man City. They drew 1-1 at Osasuna before beating Man City 3-1 to reach this stage of the Champions League.

After two more domestic wins, they lost 2-1 at Real Betis ahead of the first leg against Atletico. A 2-1 win at home saw just 0.68 xG produced as they took a key advantage. On Sunday, they beat Real Vallecano 2-1 at home despite allowing their opponents to have 20 shots.

Real Madrid Team News

Carlo Ancelotti is without four players for this match. Dani Carvajal, Eder Militao, Jesus Vallejo and Dani Ceballos will play no part.

Jude Bellingham returns from suspension to start with Brahim Diaz set to drop down to the bench. Fede Valverde is again set to cover at right back despite the availability of Lucas Vazquez.

Real Madrid Motivation

Madrid are competing on both the league and Champions League fronts. All attention will go to this clash with the weekend trip to Villarreal not entering their minds.

Carlo Ancelotti will set up pragmatically and look to ensure his side score first on the night. A draw would be a great result and Los Blancos won’t feel like they need to win this second leg.

Key Stats

Atletico Madrid’s last 9 meetings vs Real Madrid have seen 33 goals

Atletico Madrid have lost their last 2 matches (1 loss in 26 matches before that)

Real Madrid’s Mbappe has scored 19 goals in his last 22 matches

Real Madrid have won just 2 of their last 8 matches vs Atletico Madrid (four 1-1 draws)

Verdict

A tense match awaits in the capital. Real Madrid look in better form and Bellingham’s return is a boost. They have enough to get a draw in 90 minutes.

Best Bet: Real Madrid win/draw double chance + BTTS Yes at 2.37
Value Bet: Draw at 3.60
Correct Score Tip: Atletico Madrid 1-1 Real Madrid at 6.25
Anytime Goalscorer Tip: Mbappe at 2.30