Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Atletico Madrid host Inter Milan in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday. The Nerazzurri won 1-0 in the first leg and are hoping to go deep in this competition as they did last year. Atleti have lost five of their last eight matches but hope to have Antoine Griezmann available again.

Atletico Madrid Form

Diego Simeone’s side started 2024 well. They won four successive matches and drew 1-1 at Real Madrid. Since then, their form has nosedived with five losses in eight matches. They lost 1-0 at home to Athletic Bilbao in the Copa del Rey and were beaten 1-0 at Sevilla. They lost 1-0 away to Inter Milan in the first leg as they allowed 19 shots and 2.30 xG.

A 2-2 draw at Almeria preceded a 3-0 humbling at Athletic Bilbao to exit the Copa del Rey 4-0 on aggregate. Their only win in the last five was 2-1 at home to Real Betis. On Saturday, they lost 2-0 at Cadiz with just eight shots attempted and 0.88 xG from 60% possession.

Atletico Madrid Team News

After missing four matches, Antoine Griezmann has returned to training. He may be fit enough to be thrown into action alongside Alvaro Morata up front. Jose Gimenez is a doubt in defence whilst Cesar Azpilicueta is ruled out.

Vitolo is out long-term, but Reinildo is back after a long injury to boost the left wingback options. Young midfielder Pablo Barrios is doubtful, and the match may come too soon for Thomas Lemar.

Atletico Madrid Motivation

The Rojiblancos have a two-point lead in La Liga in fourth place and host Barcelona over the weekend. That is a big match and may have some bearing on this one.

Atleti will try to keep things tight and score the first goal. A 1-0 win would take it to extra time, something they would prefer to avoid. Expect extra forward to be thrown on in the second half.

Inter Form

Inter are cruising to the Serie A title and their 28 league matches have seen 70 goals scored and just one defeat. They are currently on a 13-match winning streak which has seen just five goals scored and nine clean sheets. They went into the first leg having won 4-2 at Roma and 4-0 vs Salernitana.

The first meeting vs Atletico three weeks ago saw a 79th-minute winner in a 1-0 victory. They dominated with 2.30 xG and outshot their opponents 19-7. Since that victory, they’ve won 4-0 at Lecce, 4-0 at home to Atlanta, 2-1 vs Genoa, and 1-0 at fourth-placed Bologna on Saturday despite resting players.

Inter Team News

Wingback Juan Cuadrado is injured, and midfielder Stefano Sensi has an ankle problem which rules him out. Lautaro Martinez was given a full rest in the last match and will return to the XI.

Federico Dimarco was also rested for the last match, as was Benjamin Pavard. Centre-back Francesco Acerbi is available again after missing the first leg.

Inter Motivation

Inter are 16 points clear at the top of Serie A so they can give full attention to the Champions League.

After losing last season’s final, they are motivated to win this leg and progress deeper into the competition. They will look to be solid but also have possession to control the game.

Key Stats

Atletico Madrid have lost 5 of their last 8 matches

Atletico Madrid have conceded in 9 of their last 10 matches

Atleti have failed to score in 5 of their last 8 matches

Inter Milan have won 13 matches in a row (33 goals scored, 5 conceded)

Inter Milan have lost 1 of their last 31 matches

Inter Milan’s Lautaro Martinez has 26 goals this season

Verdict

Based on form, Inter should progress to the next round. Atletico are leaking goals so Inter should score and there is great value on this ending in a score draw.

Multiplier Leg: Inter Milan win/draw double chance (90 mins) at 1.41
Best Bet: Both Teams to Score (90 mins) at 1.68
Value Bet: Draw (90 mins) at 3.20

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis