Atletico Madrid vs Dortmund – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Atletico Madrid host Dortmund in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday. BVB have lost their last Bundesliga fixture and have dropped out of the top four in Germany. Diego Simeone is unbeaten in 16 home matches in Spain in the knockout stages of the Champions League with 10 wins.

Atletico Madrid Form

Atletico Madrid’s form is poor. Their 12 matches since the start of February have yielded just four wins. They reached this stage after overturning a 1–0 away defeat to Inter Milan as they allowed 2.30 xG. Two more defeats followed in the next four, 3-0 away to Athletic Bilbao in the Cup and 2-0 at Cadiz.

Atleti rallied to beat Inter Milan 2-1 in the second leg and then won on penalties. They Inter 23-15 and produced 2.73 xG. A 3-0 home thrashing by Barcelona followed. They last played 10 days ago and scored in the 87th minute to win 2-1 at Villarreal.

Atletico Madrid Team News

Memphis Depay is almost certain to miss this match through injury. He scored the dramatic late goal as Atletico knocked out Inter Milan. Alvaro Morata will partner Antoine Griezmann.

Nahuel Molina and Rodrigo de Paul are both available after domestic suspensions. Thomas Lemar and Vitolo are set to miss out with injury. Saul Niguez is pushing to start after his winner vs Villarreal.

Atletico Madrid Motivation

The Rojiblancos are only two points clear in the race for the top four. Nevertheless, their full focus will be on the Champions League.

Diego Simeone’s side are very strong at home and will play to win. They will still use a deep defensive line but play with aggression and physicality.

Dortmund Form

Dortmund are fifth in the Bundesliga after losing 1-0 at home to VfB Stuttgart in their last match. Before that, it was just one loss in 16 matches in all competitions, but eight league draws have proven costly. They reached the quarter-finals after a 1-1 away draw vs PSV and a 2-0 home win over the Dutch log leaders.

After that latter victory, they came from 1-0 down to beat Eintracht Frankfurt 3-1 at home with two late goals. A fine 2-0 win away to Bayern Munich followed to end a 10-match winless run vs those opponents in the Bundesliga. The Stuttgart loss followed despite putting up 1.63 xG in the 2nd half.

Dortmund Team News

Dortmund are without Dutch winger Donyell Malen due to a hip injury. With five goals in his last seven matches, that is a real loss. Karim Adeyemi could be the beneficiary down the left wing.

Marco Reus is hoping for a recall to the XI but it is far from guaranteed. Left-back Ramy Bensebaini will play no part due to a serious knee injury.

Dortmund Motivation

BVB knows how strong Atletico are at home and the German club doesn’t travel particularly well. They would see a draw as an amazing result.

Realistically, a defeat by just one goal would give Dortmund a good chance in Germany.

Key Stats

Atletico Madrid have lost 7 of their last 11 matches (1 clean sheet in 13)

Atletico are unbeaten in 16 home UCL KO matches in Spain under Simeone (10 wins, six draws)

Atletico Madrid have lost just 2 of their 33 home matches (26 wins)

Dortmund have lost just 2 of their last 17 matches.

Dortmund have won just 1 of their last 10 away UCL Knockout matches (8 losses)

Verdict

Atletico have a fearsome home record under Simeone in the Champions League knockout stages. It looks wise to back them to win the first leg, but it may only be by a one-goal margin.

Best Bet: Atletico Madrid win at 1.80
Value Bet: Atletico Madrid to win by exactly 1 goal at 3.60
Alternate Bet: Griezmann to score anytime at 2.70

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis