Atletico Madrid v Sevilla – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Atletico Madrid host Sevilla at Estadio Wanda Metropolitano on Saturday evening in La Liga. The hosts are seven unbeaten in the league and have a two-point lead in the race for a top-four finish. The visitors sit 14^th in the table, just two points above the drop zone.

Atletico Madrid Form

Atleti have had a below-par season by their standards. Their first 16 matches saw five defeats and just eight wins as they languished 14 points behind Barcelona at that stage. They also finished bottom of a Champions League group that was hardly intimidating: Porto, Club Brugge, and Leverkusen. Things have improved a bit of late. After losing 1-0 at home to Barcelona in January, they’ve gone seven without losing in La Liga with no European commitments to distract them.

After a 3-1 Copa del Rey loss after extra-time to Real Madrid, they’ve got three 1-0 wins in the league and two 1-1 draws. They beat Athletic Bilbao 1-0 at home at then led 1-0 at Real Madrid last time out before conceding an 85th-minute equaliser with ten men from a corner.

Atletico Madrid Team News

Diego Simeone will be without forward Angel Correa for this one due to suspension, after his red card in the Madrid derby. Key defender Jose Maria Gimenez scored from the bench in that match and will return to the XI. Nahuel Molina is suspended for this match so Matt Doherty could be handed a starting place. Reinildo is out after a serious knee injury and Sergio Reguilon is set to be absent too.

Reinildo is a huge loss as he has been outstanding over the last year in a variety of roles. Left-back is now a serious issue and could be filled by Saúl Ñíguez or Hermoso could play there with Axel Witsel at centre-back. Alvaro Morata and Memphis Depay will both hope for starts after playing 14 and zero minutes respectively vs Los Blancos. Rodrigo de Paul is another who may miss this match.

Atletico Madrid Motivation

Confidence has returned somewhat to the squad. Over the last seven fixtures, they’ve picked up the second most points in the league and will play to win this match in their top-four race.

Recent matches have seen quite a circumspect approach with one goal scored per match and four clean sheets. Simeone has gone back to basics to a degree.

Sevilla Form

This has been a disastrous season for Sevilla. From the team who finished 3^rd, 4^th, and 4^th in their three seasons under Julen Lopetegui, they’re now in a relegation battle with just a two-point buffer to the drop zone. On the 10^th of November, they sat inside the relegation places after 14 matches with just two wins and seven losses.

Since then, Jorge Sampaoli has started to turn things around. They’ve got four wins and two draws in their last nine in La Liga with all the victories coming at home. They beat Mallorca 2-0 before thrashing PSV 3-0 at home in the Europa League. A 1-1 draw at Rayo Vallecano followed, before losing 2-0 at PSV and progressing 3-2 on aggregate. Their last match saw a damaging 3-2 home loss to Osasuna.

Sevilla Team News

Sampaoli is set to be without left winger Papu Gomez as his countryman continues to suffer from an ankle problem. Marcao and Karim Rekik are struggling in central defence and younger defender Loic Bade is also absent.

To make matters worse, Fernando was red-carded vs Osasuna and misses this fixture, weakening midfield significantly (although he has been covering in defence). Alex Telles and Marcon Acuna are set for recalls and the coach has tried a back three to cover all his injuries at the back.

Sevilla Motivation

Sampaoli is an attacking coach but he knows a draw here, with a defensive crisis, would be a huge result.

His side have been terrible in away matches of late and have only scored 11 goals in 12 fixtures on the road. He is set to play a back five out of possession to cover his lack of centre backs.

Key Stats

Atletico Madrid are unbeaten in 7 La Liga matches (four 1-0 wins and three 1-1 draws)

Atleti have scored 16 goals in 11 matches home La Liga fixtures 

Sevilla have scored just 11 goals in 12 away fixtures

Sevilla are winless in 6 away La Liga matches (L3, D3)

Sevilla are 6 away league matches without a clean sheet (11 conceded)

Verdict

Sevilla are improving but they’re still very much in a relegation dogfight and injuries at the back are worrying. Atletico are looking solid and consistent and could make it yet another 1-0 victory in this one.

Best Bet: Atletico Madrid win at 1.71
Alternative Bet: Atletico Madrid win and under 3.5 goals at 2.25
Correct Score Tip: Atletico Madrid 1-0 Sevilla at 5.50

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis