Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Atletico Madrid host Real Madrid at the Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano on Sunday night. Los Blancos have won all five of their La Liga matches this season whilst Atleti has seven points from four fixtures having lost heavily last weekend. Real won 2-1 on their last trip to their city rivals in August last season.

Atletico Madrid Form

Atletico have been inconsistent this season with just two wins in their five matches. They beat Granada 3-1 in their opening match with 2.42 xG produced. That was followed by a dour 0-0 draw at Real Betis with just five shots attempted and 0.47 xG. They went to Rayo Vallecano in round three and won 7-0 with four goals in the last 20 minutes (all of those from substitutes).

With injuries piling up, they were heavily beaten last weekend. They went to Valencia and lost 3-0 with their 63% possession only yielding three shots on target and 0.60 xG. In midweek, they travelled to Lazio in the UEFA Champions League. They gave a disciplined performance and led 1-0 going into added time. A header from Lazio’s goalkeeper in the 95th minute saw it finish 1-1. Their opponents had only produced 0.75 xG from 18 shots up to that point.

Atletico Madrid Team News

Diego Simeone has a few injuries to navigate ahead of this derby. Vitolo, Reinldo, Koke, and Thomas Lemar are all ruled out. Also absent is Rodrigo De Paul and Caglar Soyuncu will also play no part in this one. Memphis Depay is close to a return from injury and could be included on the bench.

Jose Gimenez is available in defence and could start after coming on at halftime in Rome. That would see Axel Witsel move into midfield and young Pablo Barrios drop down to the bench. Alvaro Morata will start up front and Stefan Savic will be preferred to Cesar Azpilicueta on the right of the back three.

Atletico Madrid Motivation

With their midfield and attacking injuries, Atleti may be a bit more pragmatic in this one. They’ve been much more attacking since the turn of the year but it’ll be a back five with at least one holding midfield here.

They will play to win but will also look to frustrate a Real Madrid side who have won all of their last four matches by a one-goal margin.

Real Madrid Form

Carlo Ancelotti’s side have won their first five La Liga fixtures. Jude Bellingham has netted five league goals already and notched again in midweek too. Their last four victories in the league and Europe have all been by one-goal margins as they struggle to score freely since Karim Benzema departed. They won 2-0 at Athletic Bilbao to start the season with just 0.99 xG. A 3-1 win at Almeria followed.

An 81st-minute goal from Bellingham sealed a 1-0 win at Celta Vigo before a 2-1 home win over Getafe as the same player netted in the 95th minute. After a 2-1 home win over Real Sociedad, they faced Union Berlin in the Champions League in midweek. They had 31 shots in the first 93 minutes without scoring before Bellingham’s close-range finish in the 94th minute turned a draw into a 1-0 win.

Real Madrid Team News

Carlo Ancelotti is without long-term injury victims Thibaut Courtois and Éder Militão. Both right-back Dani Carvajal and star winger Vinicius Jr are also ruled out. Fede Valverde is set to return to the lineup and Luka Modric could be the man left on the bench in this derby.

David Alaba may be selected at left back again with Nacho partnering Antonio Rudiger and Ferland Mendy left among the subs. Real Madrid will use their midfield diamond again with Bellingham playing behind Rodrygo and Joselu. Lucas Vazquez is set to cover for Carvajal at right back.

Real Madrid Motivation

The side have been pragmatic this season due to the loss of Benzema and the key injury of Vinicius Jr. They will try to control the game centrally and won’t be caught too open.

Madrid’s matches haven’t seen that many goals scored and Bellingham has bailed them out in three recent late wins. A draw would be a decent enough result on the road here.

Key Stats

Real Madrid have won all 6 of their matches this season

Madrid’s last 4 matches have all been by 1 goal margins

Real Madrid’s Jude Bellingham has six goals in six matches this season

Atletico Madrid have won 10 home La Liga matches in a row

Atletico lost 2-1 to Real Madrid in this fixture last season

5 of Atleti’s last 6 home matches have seen both sides scoring

Verdict

This could be a close match with how cramped the central areas will be. Atletico are supreme at home but injuries have hit them quite hard. Madrid have enough to eke out a point on their travels.

Best Bet: Both Teams to Score at 1.68
Value Bet: Draw at 3.30
Alternative Bet: Atletico Madrid win/draw double chance + Over 1.5 goals at 2.10
Anytime Goalscorers Tip: Jude Bellingham at 3.75

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis