Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Atletico Madrid host Real Madrid in La Liga on Sunday. Atleti are yet to lose this season, but three league draws mean they are already six points off the summit. Los Blancos have dropped points in two of their seven matches and have won just once in the last five Madrid derbies.

Atletico Madrid Form

Atletico Madrid ended last season strongly with five wins in their final six La Liga matches. This term began with a 2-2 draw at Villarreal and a 3-0 home win against Girona. A 0-0 draw with Espanyol was disappointing, given that they had 25 shots. They needed a 92nd-minute winner to secure three points at Athletic Bilbao afterward.

A more convincing display followed, with a 3-0 home win against Valencia, producing 3.24 xG. A 2-1 Champions League win over RB Leipzig also required a 90th-minute winner. However, they were below their best in a 1-1 draw at Rayo Vallecano, allowing 16 shots. On Thursday, another lackluster performance saw them needing a 90th-minute winner to take three points in a 1-0 victory at Celta Vigo.

Atletico Madrid Team News

Pablo Barrios is out with an injury in midfield, and Cesar Azpilicueta has suffered a thigh injury. Diego Simeone may opt for Axel Witsel to replace him in the back three. Rodrigo De Paul is expected to return to the starting XI in midfield.

Up front, Simeone will likely choose between Alexander Sorloth and Julian Alvarez to partner Antoine Griezmann. Alvarez, who scored midweek, may get the nod. Conor Gallagher should start in midfield alongside De Paul and Koke.

Atletico Madrid Motivation

Atletico need to play for a win in this match, as their title hopes could already look remote if Barcelona win.

Simeone’s side has been underwhelming in attack in the last two fixtures. A more defensive and physical approach is expected for this encounter.

Real Madrid Form

Real Madrid won the UEFA Super Cup to kick off the season, but their first three La Liga matches yielded just five points. They drew 1-1 at Mallorca and 1-1 at struggling Las Palmas. Successive 2-0 wins, at home to Real Betis and away at Real Sociedad, got them back on track.

Since then, the goals have started to flow. They beat Stuttgart 3-1 in the Champions League, despite allowing 17 shots and 1.94 xG. A 4-1 win over Espanyol saw an incredible 31 shots, 4.46 xG, and eight big chances. On Tuesday, Los Blancos beat Alaves 3-2, conceding two late goals that made for a nervy finish.

Real Madrid Team News

Carlo Ancelotti has been dealt a blow with Kylian Mbappe ruled out for this match. His place will likely go to either Arda Guler or Luka Modric. Jude Bellingham could play as a false nine, or Rodrygo may play centrally with Guler on the right.

Brahim Diaz and Dani Ceballos are also unavailable, and David Alaba remains out due to a serious knee injury. This match may come too soon for Eduardo Camavinga, though there is a small chance he could make the bench.

Real Madrid Motivation

Real Madrid needs a win, as Barcelona have started the season so strongly. The loss of Mbappe could make Los Blancos more compact and cohesive.

A third draw in just their eighth La Liga match would be seen as a poor result.

Key Stats

Atletico Madrid are unbeaten this season (5 wins, 3 draws)

Atletico have needed 90th-minute winners in 3 of their last 4 victories

Real Madrid have won just 1 of their last 5 matches against Atletico Madrid

The last 6 meetings between these clubs have seen 26 goals

Real Madrid are unbeaten in 39 La Liga matches

Verdict

Recent derbies have seen lots of goals; however, this one could be much tighter. Real Madrid seems to have the edge and could secure a narrow victory.

Best Bet: Real Madrid to win at 2.45
Alternate Bet: Real Madrid win/draw double chance + Under 4.5 goals at 1.76
Value Bet: Real Madrid win + Bellingham to score anytime at 5.22