Atletico Madrid v RB Leipzig – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Atletico Madrid host RB Leipzig in the UEFA Champions League on Thursday. Diego Simeone’s side reached last season’s quarter-finals, while the Red Bulls were knocked out by Real Madrid in the round of 16 despite having 34 shots over the two legs.

Atletico Madrid Form

Atletico Madrid have had a peculiar 2023-24 season. They entered their Champions League quarter-final against Dortmund with six losses in 12 matches. They won the first leg against BVB but lost 4-2 away, leading to a 5-3 aggregate exit. However, the season ended on a positive note with five wins in their final six La Liga matches. This season began with a 2-2 draw at Villarreal.

Four clean sheets have followed. They beat Girona 3-0 at home, then played out a 0-0 home draw with Espanyol despite having 25 shots and 2.47 xG. A 92nd-minute winner earned them a 1-0 victory at Athletic Bilbao. Their most recent match saw a 3-0 home victory over Valencia, producing 3.24 xG.

Atletico Madrid Team News

Pablo Barrios is Atletico Madrid’s only injury concern. The starting XI is quite settled, with José Giménez forming a strong backline alongside new signing Robin Le Normand and veteran César Azpilicueta.

In midfield, Conor Gallagher will start in a combative trio, with Marcos Llorente continuing at right wingback. Diego Simeone must choose between the physicality of Alexander Sørloth and the movement of Julián Álvarez to partner Antoine Griezmann in attack.

Atletico Madrid Motivation

Atletico will be eager to start well at home, especially with tough away fixtures against Benfica and PSG in two of their next three Champions League matches.

They will aim to attack without leaving themselves exposed to counter-attacks, and we can expect a high-energy, abrasive approach.

RB Leipzig Form

Despite a strong performance away at Real Madrid last season, where they registered 20 shots, RB Leipzig failed to progress in the tie. After their UCL exit, they ended the season on a 10-match unbeaten run in the Bundesliga, with six wins and four draws. This season began with a 4-1 cup win over Rot-Weiss Essen.

They followed that with a 1-0 win over Bochum in their league opener, and then a dramatic 3-2 comeback victory at Bayer Leverkusen after trailing 2-0. They were outshot 26-8 in that smash-and-grab win. On Saturday, Marco Rose’s side could only manage a 0-0 draw at home to Union Berlin, despite having 68% possession and 15 shots, with Lois Openda missing a penalty.

RB Leipzig Team News

Central midfielder Xaver Schlager is out with a serious knee injury, and young midfielder Forzan Assan Ouedraogo is a doubt. Marco Rose has shifted tactics this season, moving from a 4-2-2-2 to a 3-4-3 formation following Dani Olmo’s departure.

There is a chance that Benjamin Šeško will drop to the bench in favor of a natural winger, such as Antonio Nusa. New signing Lutsharel Geertruida made his debut on Saturday and is expected to continue on the right side of a back three.

RB Leipzig Motivation

The Red Bulls will stick to their high-octane style of football and aim for a win in Spain.

A draw would not be a bad result, but they are unlikely to settle for one, as it’s not in their nature to play conservatively.

Key Stats

Atletico Madrid have kept 4 consecutive clean sheets.

Atletico Madrid have won their last 5 home matches in the UCL, scoring 15 goals.

RB Leipzig are unbeaten in their last 15 matches across all competitions.

Both Teams to Score (Yes) has occurred in RB Leipzig’s last 4 away UCL matches.

RB Leipzig’s last 13 away UCL matches have seen 57 goals (28 scored, 29 conceded).

Verdict

The stats suggest an exciting match with both teams likely to score. Atletico look like a well-oiled machine at the moment and should win this clash at home.

Best Bet: Atletico Madrid to win at 1.76
Value Bet: Atletico Madrid to win and both teams to score at 3.30
Alternate Bet: Griezmann to score anytime at 2.50

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis