Atalanta v Milan – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Atalanta take on Milan in Serie A on Sunday evening in Bergamo. The hosts need a win to secure a second-place finish whilst the visitors need a victory to secure Champions League football for next season if Juventus win their match. The hosts have thrashed Milan in two of their last three meetings with Pioli’s side having the best away record in Italy with 15 wins in their 18 matches on the road.

The Nerazzurri have enjoyed another great season. In Serie A, they have won 13 and drawn three of their last 17 matches with just one defeat – to champions, Inter Milan. Gian Piero Gasperini’s side have scored 90 Serie A goal, more than any other side.

After being eliminated from the UEFA Champions League by Real Madrid, Atalanta went 10 matches unbeaten in the league (eight wins) but they lost their last match in the Coppa Italia Final to Juventus, meaning their near 60-year wait for a trophy goes on. Their goalscoring form in recent matches is impressive with 18 scored in their last six matches.

Atalanta Team News

Centre back Rafael Toloi was fit to start against Juventus in midweek but was substituted and then sent off from the bench late on. He will miss this match due to suspension. Gasperini surprisingly left Mario Pasalic amongst the subs against Juventus and he should be recalled.

Serie A’s second top scorer in Luis Muriel may have to settle for a spot on the bench once again, as will Josip Ilicic as Ruslan Malinovskyi is currently being preferred. There is plenty to play for so the coach will pick his best XI.

Atalanta Motivation

Atalanta have secured a top four finish but a victory from this match will mean they finish second. That is significant motivation for the side even though there is real disappointment as losing in the cup final in midweek and morale may be a little low.

Atalanta will attack relentlessly as usual in this match having beaten Milan 5-0 and 3-0 on the last two occasions that they’ve faced them.

Milan Form

Milan have had a decent season but over the last 16 Serie A matches, they have only picked up the seventh most points with eight wins, three draws and five defeats. After 21 matches, they were top of the log.

After a 2-1 home defeat to Sassuolo, Milan were thrashed 3-0 at Lazio. They bounced back by winning three Serie A matches on the bounce including a 3-0 win at Juventus and a 7-0 destruction of Torino. They could have secured a Champions League place in their last match but could only draw 0-0 at home with a Cagliari side who had been drinking beers prior to kickoff after security safety.

Milan Team News

Milan have Zlatan Ibrahimovic injured up front and missing for this crucial clash. Ante Rebic will lead the line again although he is more naturally a winger. He scored a hattrick recently against Torino. Mario Mandzukic is fit and an option up front off the bench.

The rest of the team picks itself with the same starting XI in place as for the Cagliari match.

Milan Motivation

Milan have to win this match because anything less, and a Juventus win, will see Stefano Pioli’s team in the Europa League next season. They know the attacking power of Atalanta so will have to sit back and use the pace of Rebic on the counter attack.

Motivation is extremely high and although they lost 5-0 in Bergamo last season and 3-0 at home to Atalanta this term, they could call on the pace of Fikayo Tomori in defence.

Key Stats

Atalanta have won 8 of their last 11 matches (D2)

Atalanta have scored 18 goals in their last 6 matches

Atalanta’s Luis Muriel has scored 22 Serie A goal this season

Atalanta have scored a league-high 90 goals this season in Serie A

Milan have Serie A’s best away record with 15 wins in 18 matches

Milan have Serie A’s best away attack and defence away defensive record

Milan have kept 4 clean sheets in a row

Milan are three matches without a win against Atalanta (0-5, 1-1, 0-3)

Prediction

This should be a great match to watch. Atalanta want to secure second place and Milan are desperate for a victory to qualify for the Champions League. Milan’s sensational away form gives them real hope and they may just surprise everyone by nicking a shock away win.

Best Bet: Milan win at 2.55

Value Bet: Milan to win and both teams to score at 3.45

Alternative Bet: Draw with goals at 4.15