Atalanta v Liverpool – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Atalanta host Liverpool in the Europe League quarter-finals on Thursday. The Bergamo club holds a 3-0 first-leg lead after a sublime performance at Anfield last week. The winner of this tie will face one of Marseille or Benfica in the semi-finals. It would be Atalanta’s first European semi since 1988.

Atalanta Form

Gian Piero Gasperini’s team are not in the best form overall. Their last 11 matches have brought just three wins. That streak has seen a 4-0 loss at Inter Milan and a 3-0 victory away at Napoli to highlight their inconsistent form.

They went into the first leg after successive losses, 1-0 at Fiorentina in the Coppa Italia and 2-1 at Cagliari in Serie A. Last week’s match saw 3.22 xG and seven ‘big chances’ produced. On Monday, Atalanta could only draw 2-2 at home vs Hellas Verona as a 2-0 lead was thrown away.

Atalanta Team News

Defender Giorgio Scalvini is set to miss out with an injury, but Sead Kolasinac is available again to boost options. Martin de Roon is expected to return to the XI in the back three having sat out the match on Monday.

Davide Zappacosta is another who was rested vs Verona but who will start this one. Ademola Lookman was given no minutes at Anfield and may have to settle for a place on the bench once again.

Atalanta Motivation

Gasperini’s side are quite attacking usually but they may be more circumspect here.

They don’t need to open up and would take a 1-0 loss as long as they reach the next stage.

Liverpool Form

The Reds have looked a bit tired of late and their late eight fixtures across all competitions have only yielded three wins. Their last six matches have seen three losses. A 4-3 defeat at Old Trafford to Man Utd saw their FA Cup hopes shattered as they allowed 3.93 xG.

Successive home league wins saw Brighton dispatched 2-1 and Sheffield United 3-1. A 2-2 draw at Man Utd in the league was very damaging as Liverpool missed five ‘big chances. After last week’s dire 3-0 home loss to Atalanta, the Reds were beaten 1-0 at home by Crystal Palace this weekend. They had 2.81 xG and missed four ‘big chances.

Liverpool Team News

Jurgen Klopp is still without Joel Matip and Thiago Alcantara. Conor Bradley has injured his ankle and will play no part until May. Alisson is fit again in goal after a long injury.

The coach is set to play his best XI and try to perform a miracle. Mo Salah will start and Trent Alexander-Arnold could come into the XI as an inverted right back. Cody Gakpo and Diogo Jota are options to freshen up the attack.

Liverpool Motivation

The Reds will have a belief that they can turn this time around. They will have seen Atalanta concede twice in four minutes of Monday and take encouragement from that.

An early goal would open up the tie and Liverpool will look to start at breakneck speed if their energy levels allow it.

Key Stats

Atalanta have won just 3 of their last 11 matches

Atalanta’s Gianluca Scamacca has scored 7 goals in his last 8 matches.

Liverpool have lost 3 of their last 6 matches.

Liverpool won 5-0 at Atalanta in 2020

Liverpool have scored 10 goals in their last 3 away matches

Verdict

This tie is far from over. Liverpool have what it takes to turn it around but they’re a good bet to get some sort of victory. Mo Salah’s return to Italy should see him motivated to score, even though he only has one career goal in seven matches vs Atalanta.

Best Bet: Liverpool win at 1.66

Alternate Bet: Liverpool to win (-1 handicap) at 2.50

High-Value Bet: Liverpool to progress at 5.75

Goalscorer Tip: Salah to score anytime at 1.90

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis