Aston Villa v Arsenal – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Aston Villa host Arsenal at Villa Park in Saturday’s lunchtime kickoff in the Premier League. Unai Emery had a superb start to his reign as Villa coach but has lost his last two fixtures. Arsenal are winless in four matches in all competitions with three defeats and have lost the top spot in the league table.

Aston Villa Form

Since Unai Emery replaced Steven Gerrard, he has largely done a very good job. The side sits 11^th in the table, 10 points above the drop zone and just seven points off the top six. His first seven Premier League matches in charge brought five wins, including against some of the top sides. A 3-1 home win against Man Utd his first match preceded a 2-1 win at high-flying Brighton. A 3-1 home loss to Liverpool followed.

The Villains got back on track right away, winning 2-0 away at Tottenham in a superb defensive display. A 1-1 home draw with Wolves came before successive victories, at home to Leeds (2-1) and at Southampton (1-0). However, the last two matches have seen some problems defensively as they conceded four at home to Leicester in a 4-2 defeat and then lost 3-1 at Man City last time out. They did manage to ‘win the second half’ in that fixture having gone in 3-0 down at the break.

Aston Villa Team News

Tyrone Mings is touch-and-go for this match at centre-back whilst big-money summer signing Diego Carlos is still absent at the back. Callum Chambers struggled in a rare start at Man City and will need to do better against his former club if called upon.

Returning loanee Bertrand Traore is the only other injury concern. Emery could make a couple of changes though with Alex Moreno perhaps set to replace Lucas Digne at left back in the XI. Philippe Coutinho is also hoping for a start although he looks ill-suited to the defensive work required of the wide men in the coach’s 4-4-2 system.

Aston Villa Motivation

Emery will be hugely motivated to beat his former club and show them they were wrong to sack him. He is an expert at setting his side up in big games and will make life very difficult for the Gunners here.

A very compact shape is expected, with Watkins and Bailey leading counter attacks. Villa are not expected to have more than about 40% of the ball. They will play to win but will also be very satisfied to take a point.

Arsenal Form

Mikel Arteta’s side are hitting the blip/slump that everyone said would come eventually. A run of 11 wins and two draws saw them look like Champions elect, not least after winning 2-0 at Tottenham and a superb performance to beat Man Utd 3-2 at home: 25 shots and 3.25 Expected Goals created, albeit an injury-time winner was required.

Since then, they’re winless in three league matches and also lost 1-0 away to Man City in the FA Cup. That loss saw a half of the best XI rested but the same can’t be said for a 1-0 loss at Everton where a paltry 0.91 xG was put up. A 1-1 home draw with Brentford followed as a VAR error allowed a second-half equaliser for the Bees. In midweek, the Gunners performed very well but still lost 3-1 at home to Man City, who leapfrogged them in the table. It was an 11^th straight league loss to City.

Arsenal Team News

The Gunners will pray that Thomas Partey recovers from a muscle injury to play this match, but that looks unlikely. Jorginho could once again anchor the midfield in his absence. Mohamed Elneny and Emile Smith Rowe miss out but Reiss Nelson was back amongst the subs vs Man City.

Gabriel Jesus is still injured up top. Arteta could finally be set to shuffle his pack. Leandro Trossard looks likely to get a start, either up front or down the left as both Gabriel Martinelli and Eddie Nketiah have suffered a drop in form. Kieran Tierney and Ben White could also come into the back four for their fresh legs and minds.

Arsenal Motivation

This feels like a huge mental test for Arsenal. A win takes them back to the summit and gets things back on track in their title challenge, but a loss or even a draw would ramp up pressure and sow doubts in the players.

Arteta will go all out to win, will use every trick in the book to motivate his players and won’t settle for a point. This feels like a must-win.

Key Stats

Aston Villa have lost 2 of their last 4 home matches

Villa have gone 5 home EPL matches without a clean sheet (10 goals conceded)

Aston Villa have lost their last 3 matches vs Arsenal

Arsenal have lost 3 of their last 4 matches (all competitions)

Arsenal have conceded in their last 5 matches (8 goals leaked)

Arsenal have won 8 of their 11 away EPL matches, conceding just 7 goals

Verdict

This match is certainly a banana skin for the Gunners. Anything less than a win and their mentality and title credentials will be under severe scrutiny. Emery is one of the worst coaches to face when you’re desperate for a win but Arsenal should just about scrape three points by the odd goal.

Best Bet: Arsenal win at 1.83
Alternative Bet: Arsenal win to zero at 3.10
Multiplier Leg: Arsenal win/draw double chance + under 3.5 goals at 1.71

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis