AS Roma v Napoli – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Roma host Napoli at the Stadio Olimpico on Saturday evening in Serie A. The hosts sit eighth in the table but they’re just two points off the defending Scudetto winners. Partenopei are unbeaten in three tips to AS Roma without conceding a goal.

Roma Form

Jose Mourinho’s side are not having a stellar season. They’re currently eighth in Serie A with five defeats in 16 matches. At home, they’ve been beaten just once and have taken 17 of their 25 points on their own turf. After losing 1-0 at Inter Milan in late October, they strung together a five-match unbeaten run in Serie A.

After winning 2-1 at ten-man Sassuolo in the league, they surrendered a 1-0 lead at home to Fiorentina in a 1-1 draw. AS Roma ended the clash with nine men. A 3-0 home win over Sheriff was only enough to finish second in their Europa League group. Last Sunday, they lost 2-0 away to Bologna in a tight affair.

Roma Team News

The good news for Mourinho is that Lukaku’s red card vs Fiorentina only carried a one-match ban. He therefore returns to lead the line in this one. It’s a big deal because Tammy Abraham is still on the mend after knee surgery and Paulo Dybala is also ruled out in attack.

In midfield, Houssem Aouar is injured, and Renato Sanches is expected to be left out after being subbed just 20 minutes after his introduction against Bologna. Chris Smalling is a key loss due to injury in defence. Evan N’Dicka and Diego Llorente will continue their run of starts in central defence.

Roma Motivation

The Giallorossi are just three points off a Champions League spot and will play to win this game.

Mourinho won’t open up at all and don’t be surprised to see 30% possession with quick counters to Lukaku as their main strategy.

Napoli Form

SSC Napoli are a massive 14 points off the log leaders after a dire defence of their title thus far. After three losses in eight, Rudi Garcia was fired, and Walter Mazzarri returned to take charge. He immediately oversaw a 2-1 win at Atalanta, but it proved a false dawn as three defeats followed for Napoli.

A 4-2 defeat at Real Madrid preceded a very poor 3-0 home loss to Inter Milan. A few days later, they lost 1-0 away to Juventus despite having 66% possession. There was some good news as a 2-0 home win over Braga secured progress to the round of 16 in the Champions League. Last weekend, a goal and assist from Victor Osimhen sealed a 2-1 home victory over Cagliari with 21 shots at goal. On Tuesday night, a fringe Napoli XI were dumped out of the Coppa Italia, 4-0 at home to Frosinone.

Napoli Team News

Walter Mazzarri has two injuries for this match. Left back Mathias Olivera is ruled out but Mario Rui is available again on that flank and should replace Natan at fullback. Elif Elmas is out injured too as rumours swirl over his future.

Key midfielder André-Frank Zambo Anguissa took a knock in the last match and is doubtful for this one. Piotr Zielinski is on standby to deputise, should he shake off a knock of his own.

Napoli Motivation

Mazzarri’s side are just a point off Bologna in fourth spot. They will see this one as a must-not-lose clash.

Napoli are likely to dominate possession but will need to guard against counters. They will initially play to win but may settle for a point in the second half.

Key Stats

Roma have won 5 of their last 6 home Serie A matches (1 draw)

Roma have conceded in 6 of their last 7 league matches

Roma have lost 5 of their 16 Serie A matches this season

Napoli have lost 5 of their last 8 matches in all competitions

Napoli are unbeaten in 3 away matches vs Roma without conceding (2 wins)

Verdict

A very tight game is expected. Napoli are a different beast when Osimhen is fit, and they could go to Roma and win this clash.

Best Bet: Napoli win at 2.55
Alternate Bet: Napoli to keep a clean sheet at 3.10
Value Bet: Napoli win and Osimhen to score anytime at 4.50

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis