Arsenal v Brentford – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Arsenal host Brentford at the Emirates Stadium on Saturday in the Premier League. The schedule has meant long gaps between matches for the Gunners of late and they will hope for their strong home form to lead to three more points. Brentford is in something of a freefall, especially on the road. Their last eight away Premier League matches have seen at least two goals leaked per game. However, they did beat Arsenal at home on the opening day of this season.

Arsenal Form

The Gunners have had a recent dip in results but most of those winless matches have been in cup competitions. They have lost three of their last six with two of those coming in cup games (1-0 to Nottingham Forest and 2-0 to Liverpool in the Carabao Cup semi-final).

Their league form is generally a lot better. Consecutive defeats to Man Utd (3-2) and Everton (2-1) were followed by four wins on the bounce with 10 goals scored and just one conceded. However, they’ve since struggled to score. A 2-1 home loss to Man City came in a very strong performance before a 0-0 home draw against Burnley. Their most recent match brought a crucial 1-0 win at Wolves. They played the final 21 minutes with ten men but defended resolutely.

Arsenal Team News

Arsenal has two injury doubts for this match and one suspension. Bernd Leno has had COVID-19 but should return, whilst Takehiro Tomiyasu is nearing a return for a calf injury. If he fails to recover, then Cedric Soares could start once again.

Gabriel Martinelli is suspended for this match on the left wing after his red card. Emile Smith Rowe is a natural replacement in that role. The rest of the Arenal side should pick itself.

Arsenal Motivation

Nothing less than three points will do from this match. Arsenal has no cup games to distract them to the only focus is on getting a top-four finish.

The Gunners will be quite structured and look to keep another clean sheet but they will also want to kill this game off instead of leading 1-0 going into the final 30 minutes.

Brentford Form

Brentford is struggling and could be described as being in freefall. After a 2-1 home win against Aston Villa to start 2022, they’ve taken one point from six league matches. They were thrashed 4-1 at Southampton and 3-0 at Liverpool. A 3-1 home defeat to Man Utd came next but they put up 2.0 xG to 2.2 xG for their opponents and deserved a draw.

Defeats to Wolves (2-1 at home) and Man City (2-0 away) came after that. Their most recent match saw them stop the rot with a 0-0 home draw with Crystal Palace. Even without Ivan Toney, they had 1.7 xG to 0.7 xG for Palace and would have been worthy of a win.

Brentford Team News

The Bees were without Ivan Toney for the last match but he should return for this one upfront. Christian Eriksen is not expected to be risked having only trained for a short while. After his involvement at the AFCON with Nigeria, Frank Onyeka should return in the midfield three.

Julian Jeanvier and Zanka are both expected to be missing at center back for this one due to injuries. Left-winger Tarique Fosu is out due to a hamstring injury.

Brentford Motivation

Brentford needs something from this match. They would certainly take a draw but would set up defensively to play for one.

Their performances of late have been quite enterprising but without the goals, their chance creation has deserved. They will try to attack Arsenal in this one.

Key Stats

Arsenal kept clean sheets in 5 of their last 6 home PL matches

Arsenal have lost just 1 of their last 10 PL home matches

Arsenal have seen Both Teams To Score – No in 3 of their last 4 PL games

Brentford have conceded at least 2+ goals in their last 8 away PL matches

Brentford have lost their last 4 away PL matches (losing at HT and FT)

The Bees have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 away PL matches

Verdict

Arsenal is playing well thanks to a solid defence. They should have enough to win this match against a struggling Brentford. The visitors don’t often score on the road so a win to nil looks a good bet, as does Arsenal to win on the spread due to Brentford leaking 2+ goals in their last eight away matches.

Best Bet: Arsenal win (-1 spread) at 2.30
Alternative Bet: Arsenal win to zero at 2.15
Multiplier Leg: Arsenal win/draw double chance + over 1.5 goals at 1.43
Value Score Tip: Arsenal 2-0 Brentford at 6.00

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis