Arsenal v Brentford – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Arsenal host Brentford at the Emirates Stadium on Saturday in the English Premier League. The Gunners have lost successive matches in the league and cup but still hold a five-point advantage over Man City at the top of the log. The Bees are unbeaten in nine league matches with five wins in their last seven, placing them seventh in the table.

Arsenal Form

The Gunners saw a 13-match unbeaten streak in the league end last weekend. If we include an FA Cup exit, it’s too losses in a row without scoring. A 0-0 home draw with Newcastle was frustrating, but Arsenal bounced back to win 2-0 at Tottenham and then 3-2 at home against Man United, scoring in injury time to take a deserved three points (2.99 Expected Goals difference).

Since then, they’ve lost 1-0 at Man City in the FA Cup – with a few players rested – and 1-0 at Everton in a shock league defeat. Mikel Arteta’s side produced just 0.91 xG from 70% possession in a really disappointing performance where they were out-fought.

Arsenal Team News

Arteta has a few injuries to deal with but only one to a starter in Gabriel Jesus. He has not played in months and Eddie Nketiah will continue to deputise. Squad players Reiss Nelson, Emile Smith Rowe, and Mohamed Elneny join him on the sidelines.

There are not expected to be any changes to the XI from the Everton defeat. Leandro Trossard, Jorginho, and Takehiro Tomiyasu are the foremost options to freshen up the side but all are more likely to feature as substitutes.

Arsenal Motivation

This is a must-win match for Arsenal to bounce back from their defeat last weekend. After this match, they host Man City in midweek so they will be desperate to go into that one with a five-point lead.

Arteta will throw on extra attackers if drawing this one and probably extra defenders (like Rob Holding) to help defend any set-plays if his lead is leading.

Brentford Form

Thomas Frank’s side are in sensational form right now. Their first 14 league matches only yielded three wins and 24 goals conceded. Their season looked on the fetch after a 5-1 loss at Newcastle and a 4-0 defeat to Aston Villa in October. However, they ended off with a 2-1 win at Man City before the World Cup break thanks to a 97th-minute winner.

They have won four and drawn two of their six matches since the resumption albeit with a few kind fixtures. A 2-0 win at West Ham preceded a fine 3-1 home win against Liverpool. They then beat Bournemouth 2-0 at home before a 0-0 draw at Leeds. Last time out they beat bottom-placed Southampton 3-0.

Brentford Team News

There are three injuries for the Bees to deal with. Pontus Jansson is injured at centre back. Shandon Baptiste and Frank Onyeka are both on the verge of returning from injury to bolster midfield but this match may come too soon.

Coach Thomas Frank used a back five vs Liverpool and Leeds and a back four vs Bournemouth and Southampton last time out. It’ll probably be three centre-backs for this one with Kristoffer Ajer coming in as a third central defender. Yoane Wissa could drop down to the bench with only two spots available in a 3-5-2 setup.

Brentford Motivation

The Bees’ approach is often clear from their team selection. When they use a back five, they’re usually more transition-focused and use their extra defender as a weapon on set pieces. When they go to a back four, it means a more front-foot approach.

The former setup is expected and Brentford will look to force Arsenal into mistakes and take advantage on the counter-attack or from dead-ball situations.

Key Stats

Arsenal have won 11 of their last 14 PL matches (D2, L1)

Arsenal have won 11 of their last 12 home PL matches (35 goals scored)

Arsenal have won their last 2 matches vs Brentford (2-1 at home, 3-0 away)

Brentford are unbeaten in 9 Premier League matches (5 wins, 4 draws)

The Bees have scored 2+ goals in 3 of their last 4 away EPL matches

Verdict

This should be a good game because Brentford are in great form and have beaten Man Utd, Liverpool, and Man City this season. Arsenal desperately needs a win ahead of hosting Man City and should have just about enough to result in the odd goal.

Best Bet: Both Teams to Score at 1.90
Alternative Bet: Arsenal win and over 2.5 goals at 2.10
Value Bet: Arsenal to win by 1 goal at 3.55
Multiplier Leg: Arsenal win/draw double chance + over 2.5 goals at 1.95

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis