Argentina v Colombia – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Argentina face Colombia in the Copa America final in the early hours of Monday morning. La Albiceleste lifted this trophy in 2021 as well as the 2022 FIFA World Cup. Colombia are unbeaten in 28 matches since February 2022, but that defeat did come against Argentina.

Argentina Form

Argentina have only been beaten twice since July 2019. They won the 2022 FIFA World Cup despite losing to Saudi Arabia in the first match. After lifting the World Cup on penalties vs France, they won 14 of their next 15 matches with one loss to Uruguay. Their Copa America started with a 2-0-win vs Canada.

Two more wins followed in the Group Stage, beating Chile 1-0 and Peru 2-0. They needed penalties to beat Ecuador in the quarter-finals after a 1-1 draw as Emi Martinez saved two spot-kicks. The semis saw a 2-0 win over Canada with 2.20 xG produced.

Argentina Team News

Coach Lionel Scaloni has a very settled side and has only two big decisions to make. In attack, he must choose between Julian Alvarez and Lautaro Martinez as Leo Messi’s partner up front.

The other selection dilemma is over Angel Di Maria or Nicolas Gonzalez on the wing. Veteran left footer Di Maria is more likely to get the nod.

Argentina Motivation

Argentina are desperate to win this tournament and will do whatever it takes. Expect an aggressive approach with lots of fouls.

Scaloni will have a couple of good substitute options to turn things around if trailing.

Colombia Form

Colombia are in incredible form under coach Nestor Lorenzo. Since losing to Argentina in 2022, they’ve gone 28 matches without defeat. There were wins vs Brazil last November and vs Spain in March 2024 to boost belief. They beat Paraguay 2-1 to start this Copa America.

After a convincing 3-0 win against Costa Rica (2.90 xG), they drew 1-1 with Brazil in a match they dominated (13-7 shot count). The quarter-finals saw a 5-0 win over Panama from just seven shots at goal. In the semis, they remarkably bat Uruguay 1-0 despite having ten men for the second half.

Colombia Team News

Crystal Palace right-back Daniel Munoz is suspended for the final after he was sent off against Uruguay Santiago Arias is most likely to take his place.

Jefferson Lerma scored in the semi-final win after returning from a ban. Richard Rios is a doubt alongside the Palace man. Mateus Uribe is on standby to deputise. James Rodriguez and Liverpool’s Luis Diaz are the key men.

Colombia Motivation

Motivation is huge having won just one major tournament in their history (2001 Copa America).

Confidence is very high, and the team can play on the front foot or absorb pressure as they showed in the semi-finals.

Key Stats

Argentina have won 14 of their last 19 matches (15 clean sheets)

Argentina’s Messi has scored 28 goals in his last 26 appearances for his country

Colombia are 28 matches unbeaten since February 2022 (last defeat vs Argentina)

Colombia have lost just 1 of their last 5 matches vs Argentina (1 win, 3 draws)

Verdict

This will be a fierce battle. It’s hard to see anything separating the sides in 90 minutes especially as three of the last five clashes have ended level. Will Emi Martinez be the hero in a penalty shootout once again?

Best Bet: Argentina to win the cup at 1.51

Value Bet: Draw (90 mins) at 2.80

Correct Score Tip: 0-0 draw at 6.75