Ajax vs PSV – Preview, Predictions, And Best Bets

Ajax host PSV in the Eredivisie on Saturday evening. The hosts trail Rood-Witten by eight points at the top of the table, with PSV winning all 10 league matches so far. Ajax are winless in their last seven matches against PSV, suffering five defeats and two draws.

Ajax Form

Ajax are rebuilding after last season’s struggles. They rallied to finish fifth in the 2023-24 table, thanks to just one loss in their final 11 league matches (five wins, five draws). This season has started well, with only one loss in 17 fixtures across all competitions. In the Europa League, they have seven points from their first three matches.

After a 1-1 draw at Slavia Prague with ten men, they put together four successive league wins. They defeated Groningen 3-1 at home and Heracles 4-3. In Europe, they secured a 3-0 win against nine-man Qarabag. Their last two results included a 1-0 victory over Willem II and an impressive 2-0 win at Feyenoord last weekend, where they were outshot 15-8 but defended stoutly.

Ajax Team News

Coach Francesco Farioli has four injury concerns for this match. Young winger Amourricho van Axel Dongen and defender Gaston Avila are expected to return, but midfielders Kristian Hlynsson and Sivert Heggheim Mannsverk are likely to miss out.

Chuba Akpom is set to play on the right wing, with Bertrand Traore on the left. Wout Weghorst will lead the line, with Brian Brobbey on the bench. Weghorst has scored four goals in his last five matches.

Ajax Motivation

This is a crucial game for Ajax, who are nine points behind PSV with a game in hand. A win here would open up the title race, while a defeat could be devastating, even at this early stage.

They’re unlikely to take too many risks and will likely focus on controlling the midfield with their experienced players, as they did in their recent win at Feyenoord.

PSV Form

The defending champions have started this season with 10 straight league wins. In the Champions League, they have one loss and two draws. After a 3-1 defeat to Juventus, they secured two league wins. On matchday two, they surrendered a 1-0 lead to draw 1-1 at home against Sporting Lisbon.

PSV then won 2-1 against both Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar. An impressive 1-1 draw at PSG followed, although they were outshot 26-8 and conceded 2.57 xG. Last Saturday, they thrashed ten-man PEC Zwolle 6-0 at home, allowing only 0.10 xG to their opponents.

PSV Team News

Coach Peter Bosz has some significant absentees. Sergino Dest is out long-term, and top assist provider Joey Veerman is a major loss in central midfield. Speedy winger Hirving Lozano may return, but midfielder Jerdy Schouten is ruled out.

Three changes were made between the PSG and PEC Zwolle matches. Rick Karsdorp returned from injury to start at right back. Both Luuk De Jong and Johan Bakayoko, who came on as substitutes last weekend, are expected to return to the front three, despite Ricardo Pepi’s brace and Ivan Perisic’s strong performance on the wing.

PSV Motivation

PSV play a very attacking style with a high defensive line under Bosz. They know that a win here could all but eliminate Ajax from the title race.

They’re unlikely to settle for a draw and will look to attack throughout the match.

Key Stats

Ajax have lost just 1 of their 17 matches this season (all competitions).

Ajax’s Wout Weghorst has 4 goals in his last 5 matches.

PSV have won all 10 of their Eredivisie matches this season.

PSV have won 5 and drawn 2 of their last 7 matches against Ajax.

PSV’s Luuk De Jong has scored 7 goals this season.

Verdict

An exciting match is expected. Based on current form and recent encounters, PSV are strong favorites. There is also value in the goalscorer markets.

Best Bet: PSV win at 2.30
Safe Bet: PSV win/draw double chance + Over 1.5 goals at 1.68
Anytime Goalscorer Market: Weghorst at 2.75 or De Jong at 2.45