AC Milan v Napoli – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

AC Milan host Napoli in the quarter-final of the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday night. Stefano Pioli’s side thrashed Partenopei 4-0 in Naples just ten days ago but that is Milan’s only win in their last six. Napoli have won on their last three tips to the San Siro but will have to play this match without their top scorer.

AC Milan Form

Milan have struggled badly for most of 2023. They began the year with a seven-match winless run that included four successive defeats with 13 goals leaked. The return of some key players in defensive areas saw them respond with a four-match winning run, including a 1-0 home win against Tottenham in their Champions League round of 16 first-leg tie.

However, that streak of wins have been followed by one win in six. They got a strong 0-0 draw away at Spurs to progress to the quarter-finals 1-0 on aggregate. After a 3-1 loss at Udinese, they suddenly produced an epic 4-0 away win at champions-elect Napoli with 2.10 xG produced from 39% possession. Over the weekend, they drew 0-0 at home with Empoli despite 23 shots and 1.99 xG.

AC Milan Team News

Coach Stefano Pioli has an injury doubt over veteran striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic. He is also sweating on the fitness of French defender Pierre Kalulu, who has a muscle problem. Olivier Giroud and Rafael Leao only played 20 minutes each vs Empoli and both will be fresh for this one.

If Kalulu can’t shake off a calf problem, then it will be a straight choice between Simon Kjaer and youngster Malick Thiaw to partner Fikayo Tomori in defence. Brahim Diaz got a goal and an assist against Napoli recently and should start down the right flank here.

AC Milan Motivation

Milan will be hugely motivated for this match. They will come into the match with some confidence having recently thrashed Napoli and will be boosted by the absence (as in that win) of Victor Osimhen.

Pioli’s side tends to lose at home to Napoli but will be determined to get at least a draw in this first leg.

Napoli Form

Napoli have won 11 of their last 13 matches but they have lost two of their last six in Serie A. They sit 16 points clear in the league and need a maximum of 12 points to secure the title. In Europe, they netted 20 goals in the group stage as they won five of their matches.

They reached this stage by beating last season’s Europa League winner Eintracht Frankfurt 2-0 away and 3-0 at home for a comfortable 5-0 aggregate win. After the latter victory, they won 4-0 at Torino before the shock 4-0 home loss to AC Milan. They won 2-1 at Lecce in their last match but they only produced 1.12 xG from 69% possession without Victor Osimhen up front.

Napoli Team News

Coach Luciano Spalletti has just two injuries to deal with, but one is a bitter blow. Serie A top scorer, Victor Osimhen has been ruled out. In another blow, his usual deputy Giovanni Simeone is also a serious question mark.

If both miss out, then on loan forward Giacomo Raspadori could start. He has just one Serie A goal to his name this season but four in the UEFA Champions League. The only other real decision to make it whether Eljif Elmas or Piotr Zielinski complete the midfield three. The latter is the usual pick and should start.

Napoli Motivation

Without Osimhen, Napoli tends to score fewer goals. They may need to focus on being more solid in this one and maybe more satisfied with a draw than they would usually be.

Spalletti has preached teamwork and cohesion in the absence of his top scorer and motivation should be high to avenge their recent 4-0 loss to Milan.

Key Stats

Milan have won just once in 6 fixtures (4-0 at Napoli, 10 days ago)

5 of Milan’s last 6 matches have seen 1 or fewer goals scored by Pioli’s team

Napoli have won their last 3 matches at the San Siro

Napoli have won 7 of their 8 UCL matches this season

Napoli have produced 22.1 xG in their 8 UCL matches, more than any other side

Verdict

This tie looked heavily stacked for the Partenopei when the draw was made. However, Milan’s recent thrashing of Napoli and Osimhen’s absence from at least the first leg has evened things up. The away side have enough to draw this one considering their fine record at the San Siro.

Best Bet: Draw at 3.05
Alternative Bet: Napoli win/draw double chance + Over 1.5 goals at 2.15
Anytime Goalscorer Options: Giroud at 3.10 or Kvaratskhelia at 3.40

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis