AC Milan v Napoli – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

AC Milan hosts Napoli on Tuesday in Serie A. The hosts sit well below Gli Azzurri, who are at the top of the table under Antonio Conte. Milan is unbeaten in five matches against Napoli, with three wins and two draws.

AC Milan Form

After earning just two points from their first three Serie A matches, Milan has improved significantly. In their last five league matches, they’ve claimed four wins and also broke their Champions League losing streak. A 2-1 victory over Inter Milan was a key result, followed by a 3-0 win against Lecce. Two defeats followed, with a 1-0 loss at Bayer Leverkusen despite an even shot count of 16-16.

A 2-1 loss at Fiorentina was tough, as David De Gea saved two of Milan’s penalties. However, they bounced back with a 1-0 win over Udinese despite playing with ten men for an hour. A 3-1 win over Club Brugge followed, where they played against ten men for 50 minutes. Milan’s weekend match was postponed due to flooding.

AC Milan Team News

Milan has several absences. Theo Hernandez and Tijjani Reijnders are suspended, as their bans were not served against Bologna due to the postponed fixture. Filippo Terracciano and Ruben Loftus-Cheek are expected to start instead.

Tammy Abraham and Luka Jovic are both doubtful. Christian Pulisic may play alongside Alvaro Morata. In defense, Matteo Gabbia is injured, so either Malick Thiaw or Strahinja Pavlovic will likely start next to Fikayo Tomori.

AC Milan Motivation

Milan is currently eight points behind Napoli with a game in hand. A defeat would make a title challenge seem distant.

Fonseca’s team is expected to attack and aim for a win, as a draw would not be particularly satisfying.

Napoli Form

SSC Napoli sits atop Serie A with seven wins in their nine matches under Antonio Conte. Since a surprising 3-0 loss to Verona on the opening day, they’ve dropped points only once in a 0-0 draw at Juventus. Afterward, they won 5-0 in the Coppa Italia over Serie B side Palermo, then beat Monza 2-0 in Serie A.

A 3-1 home win over Como came with just 40% possession. Napoli then won 1-0 at Empoli. On Saturday, they had to be patient against Lecce’s low block, eventually winning 1-0 after 24 shots and 65% possession.

Napoli Team News

Conte has recently favored a 4-3-3 formation over his usual 3-4-3 system. Stanislav Lobotka, who was injured against Lecce, should be fit to return.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia was a substitute over the weekend but is expected to start this match. David Neres or Cyril Ngonge will likely drop to the bench. Billy Gilmour is set to keep his place in midfield after a strong creative performance.

Napoli Motivation

Conte’s side is flexible, able to play defensively with low possession or press on the front foot. For big matches, they often adopt a more conservative approach.

A draw would not be a disaster for Napoli, but they will play to win, aware that their lead at the top of Serie A is fragile.

Key Stats

Napoli is winless in their last five matches against AC Milan (3 losses, 2 draws).

Napoli has won 8 of their last 9 matches in all competitions.

Napoli’s Kvaratskhelia has scored 4 goals this season.

Milan has conceded 20 goals in their last 13 matches.

AC Milan has won 4 of their last 5 Serie A matches.

Verdict

This match promises excitement. Milan’s injuries could play a significant role, as they’re weakened in several areas. A narrow Napoli win or a low-scoring draw seems likely.

Best Bet: Napoli win/draw double chance at 1.62
Value Bet: Napoli win at 2.90
Goalscorer Tip: Kvaratskhelia to score anytime at 3.70