AC Milan v Liverpool – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

AC Milan host Liverpool on Tuesday in the UEFA Champions League. The Rossoneri have had a challenging start to the season, earning just five points from four Serie A matches. Meanwhile, the Reds began with three successive wins before suffering a shock defeat. These teams last met in this competition in 2021, when Liverpool won both home and away.

Milan Form

Milan endured a difficult end to last season, losing both legs of their Europa League tie against AS Roma. Their final seven league matches yielded just one victory, during which they conceded 15 goals. This poor run of form led to the dismissal of coach Stefano Pioli.

New coach Paulo Fonseca has not had an easy start. Milan needed two late goals to salvage a 2-2 home draw against Torino on the opening day, followed by a 2-1 defeat at Parma despite controlling 61% of possession. A 2-2 draw at Lazio saw Milan concede five ‘big chances’. After the FIFA break, they responded with a 4-0 home win over Venezia, scoring all four goals in the opening 29 minutes.

Milan Team News

Coach Paulo Fonseca will be without center-back Malick Thiaw. Fikayo Tomori was dropped for the weekend match, and captain Davide Calabria is doubtful due to injury.

Alessandro Florenzi and Ismael Bennacer are also unavailable. Alvaro Morata returned from injury over the weekend and will compete with Tammy Abraham for the striker position.

Milan Motivation

Milan have three winnable home matches remaining in this competition, but some tough away fixtures ahead.

They would likely be satisfied with a draw in this match, but with little to lose, they may look to attack and play with freedom.

Liverpool Form

Liverpool’s pursuit of four trophies last season ended with some disappointing results, including a 3-0 home loss to Atalanta and a 2-0 defeat to Everton. However, Jurgen Klopp’s side finished the season on a positive note, beating Tottenham 4-2, drawing 3-3 at Aston Villa, and defeating Wolves 2-0 in Klopp’s final three matches in charge. This season began with a 2-0 win at Ipswich Town.

Liverpool then secured a 2-0 home win against Brentford, generating 19 shots and 2.65 xG. A commanding 3-0 victory followed away at Manchester United. However, they suffered a surprising 1-0 home defeat against Nottingham Forest in their last match, despite having 69% possession and only producing 0.94 xG, with just one ‘big chance’ created.

Liverpool Team News

Harvey Elliott is sidelined with an ankle injury. The only other injury concern is Federico Chiesa, who is expected to be fit enough for a place on the bench.

Manager Arne Slot is unlikely to make many changes to his starting XI. Alexis Mac Allister and Luis Díaz may be candidates for a rest after their long international flights last week.

Liverpool Motivation

With a tough group draw that includes matches against Real Madrid, RB Leipzig, and Bayer Leverkusen, Liverpool will be eager to start with a win.

Slot’s team will look to exploit AC Milan’s struggling defense and play for all three points.

Key Stats

AC Milan have won just 2 of their last 9 matches in the Champions League.

Milan have conceded 12 goals in their last 6 matches.

Liverpool have won their last 2 matches against AC Milan, with both teams scoring.

Liverpool have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 5 matches.

Verdict

Liverpool are expected to bounce back and secure a win in Milan. They have too much attacking firepower for AC Milan’s leaky defense to contain.

Best Bet: Liverpool to win at 1.90
Value Bet: Liverpool to win and both teams to score at 3.35
Goalscorer Tip: Mo Salah to score anytime at 2.30