AC Milan v Dortmund – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

AC Milan host Dortmund in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday night. The reverse fixture ended in a dull 0-0 draw but both sides won on matchday four and have a chance of progression to the round of 16. BVB have lost two of their last four matches whilst Milan have been beaten in three of their last seven.

AC Milan Form

The Rossoneri began their European campaign with successive 0-0 draws, at home to Newcastle and later away at Dortmund. A 1-0 home loss to Juventus preceded a 2-0 defeat to PSG on matchday three to leave their hopes of progression hanging by a thread. A 2-2 draw at Napoli (from 2-0 up) and a 1-0 home loss to Udinese made it four matches without a win.

Things have looked a little peachier in the last three fixtures. Milan beat PSG 2-1 at home on matchday four despite a paltry 31% possession. However, a 2-0 lead at Lecce ended in a 2-2 draw. On Saturday, a penalty by Theo Hernandez sealed a much-needed 1-0 home win over Fiorentina.

AC Milan Team News

Stefano Pioli has plenty of injury problems for this key clash. Not least, explosive winger Rafael Leao is ruled out. In his absence, Christian Pulisic and Samuel Chukwueze will play on the flanks. Olivier Giroud served a weekend suspension and will be fresh to start up front.

Mattia Caldara, Marco Pellegrino, Marco Sportiello, defender Pierre Kalulu, and forward Noah Okafor are all ruled out. Ismael Bennacer is nearing a return after a long-term injury, but this match comes too soon for him.

AC Milan Motivation

Milan sit four points off Dortmund and a defeat could mathematically end their qualification hopes. A draw keeps things alive but only if they win at Newcastle on matchday six.

Therefore, Pioli’s side have to go full-tilt for the three points in this match.

Dortmund Form

Dortmund lost just once in their first 14 matches of this season. That setback came on matchday one of the Champions League in a 2-0 loss at PSG. They followed that up with four successive Bundesliga victories before a 0-0 home draw vs AC Milan. After more league wins, they went to Newcastle and won 1-0 on their travels.

Going into the return fixture against the Magpies, BVB had lost 4-0 at home to Bayern Munich. They responded with a strong 2-0 home victory over Newcastle in Germany. Prior to the international hiatus, they surprisingly lost 2-1 at Stuttgart. On Saturday, Edin Terzic’s side came from 2-0 down to beat Borussia Monchengladbach 4-2 at home.

Dortmund Team News

BVB have a few doubts and knocks for this match. Right backs Thomas Meunier and Mateu Morey are back from injuries, but Julian Ryerson is set to get the nod instead. Sebastien Haller and speedster Karim Adeyemi have been down with illness but could return.

Young forward Julien Duranville is absent and so is midfielder Felix Nmecha. Niklas Sule is set to remain on the substitutes bench. English teenager Jamie Bynoe-Gittens is hoping to start after a goal and assist against Borussia Monchengladbach.

Dortmund Motivation

BVB sits top of the group with two games left. A draw here would be a good result and leave qualification in their hands at home to PSG on matchday six.

Dortmund won at Newcastle in a smart, relatively controlled display. They won’t open up too much in Milano.

Key Stats

Milan have conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches

AC Milan have lost 3 of their last 7 matches

Dortmund have lost 5 of their last 8 away matches in the Champions League

BVB have kept 1 clean sheet in 12 away UCL matches

Verdict

These teams played out a stalemate in the first meeting but this one should see goals. Both teams to score looks like a sensible bet but BVB have enough to leave with a point.

Best Bet: Both Teams to Score at 1.68
Value Bet: Draw at 3.50
Goalscorer Tip: Olivier Giroud to score anytime at 2.65