AC Milan v AS Roma – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

AC Milan host Roma in the Europa League quarter-final first leg on Thursday. The hosts are on a seven-match winning streak and are nine matches unbeaten vs AS Roma with six wins. The Giallorossi have lost just once in the last 11 games under Daniele De Rossi.

AC Milan Form

Milan have been beaten just twice in 16 matches. Successive defeats in February have been followed by seven victories in a row in all competitions. They beat Slavia Prague 4-2 at home in the Europa League and won 3-1 away from home in the second leg.

Since the latter win, they’ve won 3-1 at Verona and 2-1 at Fiorentina in Serie A. On Saturday, they beat Lecce 3-0 at home. They played the entire second half vs ten men and had 64% possession in the victory.

AC Milan Team News

Stefano Pioli is only missing a couple of players for this match. Malick Thiaw is doubtful with a foot injury but should be available at the back. Pierre Kalulu is ruled out in defence with an injury. Fikayo Tomori is suspended and if Thiaw misses out, Simon Kjaer and Matteo Gabbia will both start.

Tommaso Pobega will play no part in midfield due to a hamstring complaint. Ruben Loftus-Cheek is set to return in the number ten role. That could see Christian Pulisic move back out to the right wing with Samuel Chukwueze dropping to the bench.

AC Milan Motivation

Milan are out of the Serie A title race but they’re secure in the second spot. That allows full attention to go on winning the Europa League.

Pioli is set to select his best XI. He will target a home win in the first leg and look to attack Roma.

AS Roma Form

Roma’s form has picked up significantly since Jose Mourinho was sacked in January. Daniele De Rossi’s first 11 matches at the helm saw just one defeat, a 4-2 home loss to Inter Milan. They won three Serie A matches in a row before thrashing Brighton 4-0 at home in the Europa League.

After a 2-2 draw at Fiorentina, they lost 1-0 at Brighton in the second leg to progress 4-1 on aggregate. Clean league clean sheets have followed. AS Roma beat Sassuolo 1-0 at home and drew 0-0 at Lecce. On Saturday, they claimed bragging rights in a 1-0 home win in the Rome derby vs Lazio.

AS Roma Team News

AS Roma are without Evan N’Dicka in defence due to suspension. Houssem Aouar is doubtful due to an illness and Sardar Azmoun will play no part in the attack after a hamstring injury.

After 10 months out injured, Tammy Abraham is back to boost bench options. On the left wing, it could be a more defensive approach in Nicola Zalewski or the more attacking Stephan El Shaarawy.

AS Roma Motivation

A lot will be dictated by the team’s formation. De Rossi can use a 4-3-3 or go to a 3-4-1-2 setup with a back-five when defending.

A draw from this first leg will be a fine result ahead of next week’s second leg.

Key Stats

Milan’s Loftus-Cheek has scored 4 goals in his last 4 Europa League matches.

Milan have won their last 7 matches.

Milan are unbeaten in 9 matches vs Roma (6 wins, 3 draws)

Roma have lost just 1 of their last 11 matches.

Roma have kept 3 clean sheets in a row.

Verdict

Based on the historical record between these sides, Milan could edge this first leg. A low-scoring affair is perhaps more likely and potentially a one-goal winning margin.

Best Bet: AC Milan win at 1.80
Value Bet: AC Milan to win by 1 goal at 3.35
Goalscorer Tip: Loftus-Cheek to score anytime at 3.50

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis