URC Predictions – Round 12

The much-anticipated all-South African showdowns take place on Saturday. First up is a predatory clash between the Lions and the Sharks in Johannesburg, followed by the North-South derby between the Bulls and the Stormers in Pretoria.

Munster v Edinburgh

When: Friday, 28 February – 21:35 SAST

Teams in contrasting form face off in Limerick.

Munster have made their way up to fifth place following back-to-back wins over Welsh opposition (the Dragons and Scarlets), while ninth-placed Edinburgh have suffered successive losses to the Scarlets and lowly Zebre.

The Scots will be out for redemption, but Munster’s superior depth should carry them to another victory.

Prediction: Munster by 9.

Suggested Bet: Edinburgh +11 at 1.90.

Zebre v Dragons

When: Friday, 28 February – 21:35 SAST

The two teams at the bottom of the log lock horns in Parma.

Zebre are on quite a roll for their standards, having upset Ulster 15-14 and Edinburgh 22-17 away from home in their last two outings to double their win tally to four.

The last-placed Dragons, meanwhile, have still only won a single game this season and their 45-20 loss to Glasgow in the previous round extended their losing streak to 10. Bank on Zebre to add to their woes.

Prediction: Zebre by 12.

Suggested Bet: Zebre -7 at 1.90.

Lions v Sharks

When: Saturday, 1 March – 14:30 SAST

The key lessons the Lions, who’re sitting 12th, would’ve learned from last weekend’s 31-19 loss to the Bulls are that they can’t afford to be slow out of the blocks, they have to improve their discipline, and they have to tidy up their offence.

That’s not to say they should be more predictable with the pill but rather be more accurate with the basics after they had two tries disallowed due to a lack of accuracy.

The fourth-placed Sharks were sublime last time out as they upset the Bulls at Loftus. They were clever and clinical and will aim to replicate that performance against the Pride.

The Durbanites should have the ascendency in the set pieces, while they’ll also likely win the kicking and aerial battles and are as lethal on the counter-attack as the Lions, so I fancy them coming away with the spoils.

Prediction: Sharks by 3.

Suggested Bet: Sharks at 2.30.

Bulls v Stormers

When: Saturday, 1 March – 17:00 SAST

The third-placed Bulls impressed in patches against the Lions last weekend to bounce back from the previous week’s shock home defeat to the Sharks.

Any coach will take a bonus-point win, but for a team chasing a top-two finish, the men from Pretoria have to strive to deliver an 80-minute performance.

That means maintaining the intensity and accuracy you start with and cutting out silly individual mistakes that allow teams back into a game. For a team with big goals, they’ll also have to do a better job of turning 22 entries into points than they have as of late.

The Stormers have lost three in a row and are coming off a 30-23 defeat to the Lions in which they really underwhelmed. They’ll forget about that and rather focus on the previous week’s performance when they went hammer and tongs with the Bulls and should’ve pipped them after Ben-Jason Dixon’s late try, only for Clayton Blommetjies to miss the decisive conversion.

John Dobson has called this return fixture a must-win for his team, who head into the weekend in 10th place, if they want to make it to the playoffs, so the Capetonians will throw everything at their arch-rivals.

However, the Bulls have the power advantage and will be fueled by their home crowd. With better game management than in the previous meeting, they should win a bit more comfortably this time around. 

Prediction: Bulls by 7.

Suggested Bet: Stormers +14 at 1.90.

Leinster v Cardiff 

When: Saturday, 1 March – 17:00 SAST

Unbeaten log leaders Leinster are such juggernauts that they’re held to a higher standard than any other team in the league. Thus, when they’re not completely dominant, opposing sides sense there could be an opportunity to trip them up.

With the Irish giants coming off a 22-19 away win over the Ospreys, sixth-placed Cardiff will have hope. However, Leinster will set the record straight in front of their home crowd.

Prediction: Leinster by 15.

Suggested Bet: Cardiff +18 at 1.90.

Ulster v Scarlets

When: Saturday, 1 March – 19:15 SAST

This is a highly compelling clash as Ulster have had a tough season and have been dreadful without their Irish internationals. Down in 14th place, they were stunned 15-14 by Zebre at home and battered 34-19 by Benetton away in their last two games.

Sitting eighth, the Scarlets have more to play for. After clinching wins over the Dragons and Edinburgh, they were cooled down by Munster, who won in commanding fashion (29-8). That means this one could go either way.

As poor as the Scarlets’ away record is, Ulster are in such shambles that I’m leaning towards the underdogs from Wales.

Prediction: Scarlets by 2.

Suggested Bet: Scarlets at 2.80.

Connacht v Benetton

When: Saturday, 1 March – 21:35 SAST

Connacht haven’t looked like they’re playoff contenders this season. They share a 4-7 record and 24 log points with the Stormers, with the Capetonians having a slightly better points difference. Lying 11th, they simply have to win home games like these to give themselves a shot of making the top eight.

They have some momentum thanks to their 24-19 victory over Cardiff in the last round, and the added significance of the fixture should inspire them to a close win over an erratic Benetton outfit.

Prediction: Connacht by 6.

Suggested Bet: Benetton +13 at 1.90.

Glasgow Warriors v Ospreys

When: Saturday, 1 March – 21:35 SAST

The Warriors have managed just fine without their Scottish internationals, following up a 22-19 win over Connacht with a 25-point triumph over the Dragons since the start of the Six Nations.

Their mission is to cling on to second place and with the Bulls just two points behind them, they can’t afford to slip up, especially at home. The 13th-placed Ospreys pushed Leinster close last time out, losing 22-19, but that was in their own backyard.

They couldn’t beat Zebre away, so the chances of an upset are slim.

Prediction: Glasgow Warriors by 12.

Suggested Bet: Ospreys +15 at 1.90.