URC Predictions – Round 11

The URC is back in full swing this weekend, and the major interest is in Saturday’s derbies on the South African Highveld, with the Lions hosting the Stormers in Johannesburg and the Bulls hosting the Sharks in Pretoria.

Edinburgh v Zebre

When: Friday, 14 February – 21:35

Edinburgh will look to restore the status quo after the shock results of the previous round that saw them succumb 30-24 to the Scarlets and Zebre stun Ulster 15-14.

It snapped their three-match winning streak in all competitions, while the Italians ended a six-match losing run in all competitions. Knowing they can’t take their visitors lightly, Sean Everitt’s side will be fully switched on and should prevail.

Prediction: Edinburgh by 12.  
Suggested Bet: Zebre +19 at 1.90.

Ospreys v Leinster

When: Friday, 14 February – 21:35

The Ospreys are down in 12th place, but they’re a team with momentum. Unbeaten in their last five games in all competitions and fresh off blanking Benetton 43-0, they’ll be confident that they can hand log-leading Leinster their first loss.

The Irish giants made a serious statement in their first game without their Six Nations stars last time out, smashing the Stormers 36-12 in an impressive showcase of their depth. The Ospreys will be brave, but Leinster roll so deep that they’ll keep their flawless record intact.

Prediction: Leinster by 15.
Suggested Bet: Leinster -12 at 1.90.

Lions v Stormers

When: Saturday, 15 February – 14:30

Two of the teams fighting to get into the top eight collide at Ellis Park.

On 19, the Lions are five points behind eighth-placed Edinburgh in 13th position but have two games in hand. The Stormers, meanwhile, are 10th on 23 points, so expect a fierce battle.

Ivan van Rooyen’s side have run into difficulty and have won just two of their last eight games in all competitions. Coming off a 37-22 loss to the Bulls in their own backyard, they cannot afford to lose another derby at home.

The Stormers showed great fight to put themselves in a position to beat the Bulls last weekend, but wayward kicking cost them in the end. Gutted by injuries, the Capetonians have lost a lot of creativity and flair and have had to do things the hard way.

It’s not pretty, but I’ve been ultra-impressed by their fighting spirit, which, aside from last weekend’s nailbiter, saw them slay the Sharks in the return fixture after coming within a score of defeating them in Durban.

As far as the Lions are concerned, they beat them 29-10 in December to make it six straight wins in their rivalry and with the fight in their squad, I’m backing them to come good as the underdogs.

Prediction: Stormers by 2.
Suggested Bet: Stormers at 2.62.

Bulls v Sharks

When: Saturday, 15 February – 17:00

After their good fortune in Cape Town last weekend, the third-placed Bulls will want to leave nothing to chance when they welcome the fourth-placed Sharks to Loftus Versfeld.

The Pretoria side had so much dominance early on in the North-South derby, particularly in the set pieces, but didn’t convert it into points as well as they should have.

They then put themselves under pressure with ill-discipline and were fortunate to escape with a 33-32 win. For Jake White’s troops, this week will be about writing those wrongs and being more composed and controlled.

The Sharks’ 42-22 triumph in Cardiff last time out was their first since their 20-17 home win over the Bulls in December. Like the Stormers, the Durban outfit have had more than their fair share of injuries but have greater depth.

Apart from it being in Pretoria, the key difference in this return fixture is Willie le Roux’s recent switch to flyhalf. The Bulls are really onto something having the veteran playmaker at pivot, and he should help them pick up the win.

Prediction: Bulls by 6.
Suggested Bet: Sharks +7 at 1.90.

Benetton v Ulster

When: Saturday, 15 February – 19:15

It’s all about redemption for both of these sides after their Round 10 embarrassment.

Whitewashed 43-0 by the Ospreys, Benetton have to come up with a response in front of their home crowd, while Ulster will look to put their 15-14 loss to Zebre behind them.

This is a really tough one to pick. Many will back Benetton because of their home ground advantage, but I just can’t throw my weight behind them after their shambolic last showing.

Prediction: Ulster by 2.
Suggested Bet: Ulster at 1.72.

Munster v Scarlets

When: Saturday, 15 February – 19:15

This clash offers seventh-placed Munster an opportunity to find consistency and leapfrog their visitors on the log.

Having traded wins and losses in their last six games in all competitions, the Irish outfit are out to make it two in a row for the first time since early December following their 38-19 away triumph over the Dragons in the previous round.

As hearty as their six-point home win over Edinburgh was last time out, the Scarlets struggle on the road. They’ve lost their last four away games on the trot in all competitions, plus, they haven’t beaten Munster since 2019. Thus, the hosts are a safe bet.

Prediction: Munster by 10.
Suggested Bet: Scarlets +11 at 1.90.

Connacht v Cardiff

When: Saturday, 15 February – 21:35

Currently in fifth place, Cardiff are one of the teams expected to drop down the table significantly during the Six Nations. They’re winless in their last four games in all competitions and were beaten by 20 by the Sharks at home last time out.

Connacht pushed the Glasgow Warriors close in their most recent match, losing by three points. More notably, they toppled Cardiff 28-19 away from home in the EPCR Challenge Cup last month and should repeat the feat at home.

Prediction: Connacht by 14.
Suggested Bet: Cardiff +17 at 1.90.

Dragons v Glasgow Warriors

When: Sunday, 16 February – 16:00

The final clash of the round is a foregone conclusion as it pits the basement-dwelling Dragons against the second-placed Warriors. The embattled Welsh region have managed just a solitary win this season and bent the knee by 38-19 to Munster last time out.

Glasgow, who were made to work for their 22-19 win over Connacht in the previous round, are in a different class than the Dragons and should secure the full five log points.  

Prediction: Glasgow Warriors by 15.