URC Predictions – Round 14

The Stormers kick off the action on Friday night in Belfast, where they battle Ulster, with the rest of the local sides taking to the field on Saturday.

The Bulls take on Zebre at Loftus Versfeld, the Sharks tackle table-topping Leinster at Kings Park and the Lions face the defending champion Glasgow Warriors in Scotland.

Ulster v Stormers

When: Friday, 28 March – 21:35 SAST

With their x-factor players Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu and Damian Willemse back, the Stormers were a different team against the Scarlets last weekend and left Llanelli with a 29-17 win, their first in Europe since October.

Feinberg-Mngomezulu gives the Capetonians direction and plenty of options with his complete skillset and he’ll be pivotal again in this one. Their scrummaging was as impressive as their flair and while Frans Malherbe is a big loss, Neethling Fouche is a more than capable replacement.

Ulster were made to work for their 34-30 away win over the last-placed Dragons, which moved them up to ninth place, one spot below the Stormers. Vulnerable is perhaps the best way to describe the men from Belfast this season. It won’t be easy, but the window of opportunity is there for the Stormers to finish their tour strong and I sense they’ll make the most of it.

Prediction: Stormers by 3.
Suggested Bet: Stormers at 1.72.

Edinburgh v Dragons

When: Friday, 28 March – 21:35 SAST

Edinburgh were seconds away from beating Benetton with 14 men last weekend before the Italians found the opening they needed and scored the match-winning try.

Now back home, the 11th-placed Scots will eye nothing less than a full house against the bottom of the log Dragons. The embattled Welsh region looked as if they were going to break their drought for most of the match against Ulster last weekend but couldn’t hang on.

That said, they won’t come close in the Scottish capital.   

Prediction: Edinburgh by 16.
Suggested Bet: Dragons +18 at 1.90.

Bulls v Zebre

When: Saturday, 29 March – 14:45 SAST

Having snatched victory from the jaws of defeat against Leinster last weekend, the Bulls will want to be more assertive, accurate and disciplined this week to make it easier on themselves.

Zebre showed in their near-upset of the Sharks last weekend how dangerous they can be if given opportunities, especially on transition, so it would serve the Bulls well to be direct and physical.

The Italians, who’d won three in a row going into the previous round, have grown a lot this season. They no longer panic if they trail early and have developed great fight, as they showed in Durban.

However, the Bulls should power to a comfortable win.   

Prediction: Bulls by 14.
Suggested Bet: Zebre +20 at 1.90.

Connacht v Munster

When: Saturday, 29 March – 16:30 SAST

There will be a different feel to this Irish derby with Connacht taking the contest to Castlebar’s MacHale Park in a ground-breaking move. Whether that comes back to bite them remains to be seen as the Sportsground has been integral to them beating Munster, having done so in the last three meetings at their regular home ground.

Both teams are coming off narrow away losses, 12th-placed Connacht to the Ospreys (43-40) and sixth-placed Munster to the Glasgow Warriors (28-25). It’s a tricky one to call, but Ulster were able to beat Connacht on the road, so Munster – given how badly they’ll want to stay in the top six – should be able to do the same.

Prediction: Munster by 5.
Suggested Bet: Munster -3 at 1.90.

Scarlets v Ospreys

When: Saturday, 29 March – 17:00 SAST

After a slow start against the Stormers last weekend, the Scarlets had their moments but suffered a big blow as they left empty-handed in a 12-point defeat. They’re down in 14th place and if they drop a second home game in succession, and a fourth game on the trot, you’d have to think they’ll be out of the playoff race.

Sitting seventh, the Ospreys have hit good form. They’ve won three of their last four matches and are fresh off a 43-40 win over Connacht. Former Cheetahs hooker Marnus van der Merwe’s breakdown brilliance will help the hosts, but it’s the visitors who should leave as the winners of the west Wales derby.

Prediction: Ospreys by 4.
Suggested Bet: Ospreys at 2.40.

Sharks v Leinster

When: Saturday, 29 March – 19:15 SAST

After surviving a massive scare against Zebre last weekend, the Sharks know they’ll have to up their game significantly to beat log leaders Leinster, who showed at Loftus Versfeld that even without their Irish internationals, they’re a force to be reckoned with.

For the Sharks, this game is all about tightening up on defence as Leinster will leave them in the dust if they’re as charitable on D as they were against Zebre. Structure will be key, while they also need more energy and intensity.

The Durbanites will want to use their powerful scrum that dominated last weekend and they’ll be wise to take a page out of the Bulls’ playbook and go to their driving maul given that it yielded two tries for the Herd.

This is one of the games in which the Sharks have to step up and show they’re serious title contenders. Expect a better performance from John Plumtree’s troops and a relatively hard-fought win.

Prediction: Sharks by 7.
Suggested Bet: Leinster +8 at 1.90

Benetton v Cardiff

When: Saturday, 29 March – 21:35 SAST

Hanging on by the skin of their teeth for a vital 20-17 victory over the Lions last Friday, Cardiff jet off for a tough assignment in Treviso.

The Welsh side deserve credit for weathering the storm in the first quarter, limiting the Lions to just seven points, and for capitalising on the visitors’ mistakes.

They’ll take confidence from the fact that they won the kicking game, effectively slowed the Lions’ ball down and finished on the right side of a close contest.

However, Benetton have banked five wins in a row at home in all competitions, including last weekend’s 21-18 triumph over Edinburgh, and should continue that streak.

Prediction: Benetton by 4.
Suggested Bet: Cardiff +8 at 1.90.

Glasgow Warriors v Lions

When: Saturday, 29 March – 21:35 SAST

After costly errors and controversial calls cost them dearly in Cardiff last weekend, the Lions will put a premium on decision-making and accuracy this week.

Their own worst enemies in the three-point loss in the Welsh capital, the Pride were plagued with soft moments, including allowing the hosts to trot over for an easy try that undid the visitors’ first-quarter dominance, and the intercept try that proved decisive.

They showed they can troubleshoot and adapt, which was encouraging, as they changed tactics in the second half by being more direct on attack after being far too lateral in the first half. Glasgow would’ve noted that they had issues under the high ball, so we could see a bit more kicking from the Scottish side.

The Warriors showed their champion mettle to pip Munster 28-25 in a game that took them 76 minutes to take the lead for the first time. The Lions will see that as a chance to pounce, but Franco Smith’s side’s class should see them fend off Ivan van Rooyen’s men.

Prediction: Glasgow Warriors by 10.
Suggested Bet: Lions +13 at 1.90.