United Rugby Championship Predictions – Semi-Finals

The Stormers will fly the South African flag and strive to keep their title defence alive in the United Rugby Championship semi-finals on Saturday, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

Joining John Dobson’s side in the final four are three Irish outfits. The Capetonians will host Connacht in the first semi-final at DHL Stadium, while arch-rivals Leinster and Munster meet in the second showdown at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin.

Stormers v Connacht

Saturday, 13 May – 16:00

These two teams come almost full circle after having faced off in the second round back in September. The Stormers scored a 38-15 bonus point win on that occasion in Stellenbosch, but Connacht have come a long way since then. 

Their successful campaign has been characterised by grit – a hard-nosed desire to play for one another and out-will teams who have greater budgets and star power. 

Surprising playoff qualifiers in seventh position, the smallest of the Irish clubs punched above their weight to stun second seeds Ulster 15-10 in Belfast last weekend and will back themselves to do the same against the Stormers.

Their brilliance at the breakdown was key to the Kingspan upset and is an area they’ll target again come Saturday. From a Stormers point of view, one of the most pleasing aspects of their 33-21 quarter-final win over the Bulls would therefore have been Deon Fourie’s return from injury and Evan Roos’ added impact in this department, with both seizing two turnovers. 

The visitors’ other strengths are their set pieces. Ranked second at lineout time (87% success rate) and fourth in the scrums (94% success rate), they are super clinical and it’s no surprise that they prefer to play set piece to set piece as opposed to a free-flowing game like the Stormers. 

While the Cape side do favour fast-paced, attack-minded rugby, they showcased their tactical astuteness to dictate terms against the Bulls. Given Connacht’s style, they’ll revert to a ball-in-hand approach and look to punish the men in green with their superior interlinking whilst respecting the importance to play in the right areas of the pitch. 

All in all, the Stormers have their bases covered in the set pieces and rucks and have more fluidity and firepower in the backline, which should see them seal the deal with a bit of breathing room to reach their second successive final. 

Prediction: Stormers by 10.

Suggested Bet: Connacht +13.5 at 1.84.

Leinster v Munster

Saturday, 13 May – 18:30

Leinster flexed their class and depth to dispose of the Sharks with a mix-and-match team. Leo Cullen hardly needed the superstar-loaded bench as the second-stringers he’d entrusted to start in certain positions all came through to put them in an ideal situation moving forward. 

As a semi-final and local derby, Cullen will go with his strongest possible line-up and his reinstated frontline players will be that little bit less banged up than their Munster counterparts who had to scratch and claw their way past the Warriors in Glasgow. 

On one hand, one may think Munster have the best chance of all to upset Leinster given their familiarity and history. Also, their mean-spirited defence at the Warriors’ Scotstoun fortress was exactly the type of intensely resolute effort required from a side to give themselves a shot against the demolition squad from Dublin. 

That said, the rivalry between the Irish powerhouses has resembled that of the South African North-South derby that’s been dominated by the Stormers in recent years. Leinster have won four on the trot against their arch-rivals and 10 of their last 11 encounters. 

The last was a 20-19 victory in Munster’s backyard, which followed a convincing 27-13 win in the most recent meeting at the Aviva. In other words, they’ve had Munster’s number for years. 

They’ve looked bulletproof all season and after crashing out at this stage last year, they’ll be ultra-focused to avoid the same fate and march on to a home final. 

Prediction: Leinster by 12.

Suggested Bet: Munster +15.5 at 1.83.

Quintin van Jaarsveld

Quintin Van Jaarsveld is a former MDDA-Sanlam SA Local Sports Journalist of the Year and a former three-time Vodacom KwaZulu-Natal Sports Journalist of the Year. Formerly the sports editor and Outstanding Journalist of the Year award winner at The Fever Media Group, deputy editor at eHowzit, editor at SARugby.com and senior staff writer at Rugby365.com, he boasts over 15 years’ experience and is currently a freelance sports writer.