United Rugby Championship Predictions – Round 18

With much to play for, the United Rugby Championship regular season will reach a thrilling crescendo this weekend, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

Seven of the eight quarter-finalists have been confirmed, while the Sharks (46) have the inside track on nailing down the final spot ahead of Benetton (41). 

Leinster (79), Ulster (64), the Stormers (63), Glasgow Warriors (58), Munster (53), Connacht (49) and the Bulls (48) have punched their ticket to the playoffs, but who’ll be matched up in the last eight and where will be decided this weekend.  

Kicking off the action will be the Stormers, who’ll eye nothing less than a full house against Benetton in Stellenbosch on Friday night. 

In the first of Saturday’s games involving South African sides, the Lions will look to finish their campaign on a winning note against Zebre where after the Bulls will lock horns with Leinster in the double-header at Loftus Versfeld. 

Last up, the Sharks will know exactly what’s required of them when they welcome Munster to Kings Park. 

Stormers v Benetton

Friday, 21 April – 18:30

A storm is brewing in Stellenbosch where Benetton can expect a backlash from a disappointed and angry Stormers side who let second place – and a potential home semi-final – slip with their 26-24 loss to Munster last weekend. 

All the Capetonians, who trail Ulster by one, can do now is secure maximum points and hope Edinburgh upset Ulster to snatch back second position. Benetton, who’re ninth on 41, are all but out as they’re five points behind the eighth-placed Sharks and have a points’ difference of minus 77 to the Durbanites’ six. 

Seeing as though they have a European Challenge Cup semi-final meeting with Toulon next weekend, the Italians will likely opt to rest many of their frontline players on Friday. Either way, the Stormers are a lock for a big win, which will start up front. 

Prediction: Stormers by 21.

Ulster v Edinburgh

Friday, 21 April – 20:35

John Dobson has admitted he sees little chance of 12th-placed Edinburgh shocking Ulster to do them a favour and the Stormers coach is right. 

There is a glimmer of hope for the Capetonians as the Scottish side snapped a five-match losing streak in all competitions with a 45-21 win over the Ospreys last weekend, but the reality is Ulster are in a different class and will win comprehensively. 

Prediction: Ulster by 19.

Suggested Bet: Ulster -15.5 at 1.84.

Lions v Zebre

Saturday, 22 April – 13:00

After the heart-breaking loss to Leinster last weekend, it’s fitting that the Lions have this favourable fixture to finish what’s been a tumultuous campaign on and off the field. 

As long as they don’t throw the ball around from the first minute and earn the right to go wide, the Lions will control the contest and the floodgates will open as winless Zebre have little to nothing left as their season-heaviest hammering by the Bulls showed.

Prediction: Lions by 25.

Suggested Bet: Lions -23.5 at 1.84.

Dragons v Scarlets

Saturday, 22 April – 16:00

Fifteenth and 14th, it’s been a long season for both of these Welsh regions. The Scarlets have twice as many wins as the Dragons with six, including beating them 33-17 on new year’s day. Dead last in the shield by some distance, the Dragons have simply not measured up. 

With nothing to gain, the Scarlets could choose to rest their stars ahead of next weekend’s European Challenge Cup semi-final against Glasgow, so hold off until Dai Flanagan names his team. 

Prediction: Scarlets (if weakened) by 5.

Bulls v Leinster

Saturday, 22 April – 16:00

Two teams on a high meet on the Highveld. The Bulls whipped up a perfect storm to blow Zebre away 78-12 and book their playoff berth. Currently seventh with the possibility of finishing as high as fifth if the cards fall in their favour, the Pretoria side will be on a mission to seal the full five log points. 

A young Leinster side deserve a ton of credit for pipping the Lions despite trailing by 12 at one stage and conceding two yellow cards. However, the Bulls, who rediscovered their interlinking rhythm, have the game management the Lions lacked to build a lead and keep Leinster at bay to hand them their first loss. 

Prediction: Bulls by 10.

Ospreys v Cardiff

Saturday, 22 April – 18:15

In the bigger scheme of things, the Welsh teams have underwhelmed, but this is a high-stakes affair. It’s the Welsh Shield decider with entry into next year’s European Champions Cup also on the line. 

Cardiff have led the Welsh charge for most of the season and have a four-point lead over their hosts this weekend. Two log points will, therefore, see them hold onto top spot. The Ospreys won the last meeting 22-19, so everything points to a tight tussle. 

Cardiff have been in better form of late, having reached the European Challenge Cup quarter-finals, so I’m backing them to edge it.

Prediction: Cardiff by 3.

Suggested Bet: Cardiff -1.5 at 1.83.

Sharks v Munster

Saturday, 22 April – 18:15

If the Stormers beat Benetton as expected, the Sharks would be safe in eighth place and assured of a spot in the quarter-finals. Eighth place, though, will not be enough to qualify for next year’s European Champions Cup as that treasured berth will go to the highest-placed Welsh team.

The Durban side will also want to avoid a trip to Dublin to face Leinster in the quarter-finals, so they’ll leave everything on the Kings Park pitch to possibly work their way up the ladder as they can finish as high as sixth if they secure a bonus-point win and other results go their way.

After stunning the Stormers last weekend, Munster can move up from fifth to fourth if they claim a maximum haul and the Glasgow Warriors come up empty against Connacht, so it’s a huge game for both teams. 

The Sharks convincingly beat the Irish outfit 50-35 in the European Champions Cup Round of 16 and while they’re missing Eben Etzebeth and Jaden Hendrikse this time around, they have the power game to bring Munster back down to earth.

Prediction: Sharks by 7.

Suggested Bet: Sharks -5.5 at 1.84.

Glasgow Warriors v Connacht

Saturday, 22 April – 20:35

Four hosts seven in the final match of the regular season. Glasgow need a single log point to ensure they stay in fourth while Connacht could move up to fifth if they bag a bonus-point win and Munster fail to pick up at least one log point in Durban.  

The narrow 12-9 win over the Scarlets last weekend was the best thing that could’ve happened to the Warriors, a tense wake-up call of sorts to steel them for the knockout games ahead, which should translate into a narrow win over Connacht. 

Prediction: Glasgow Warriors by 4.