United Rugby Championship Predictions – Round 12

The South African sides face a challenging start to 2023 as they come up against tough opposition and wet European conditions in Round 12 of the United Rugby Championship this weekend, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

All four local sides look set to battle it out in the rain. The Highveld outfits are up first on Friday night with the Bulls taking on the Dragons in Newport and the Lions meeting Munster in Limerick. 

The Sharks collide with Connacht in Galway on Saturday while the Stormers are in the Scottish capital for a clash against the Glasgow Warriors on Sunday.

Dragons v Bulls

Friday, 6 January – 21:35

Discipline. That’ll be the main focus for the Bulls after two yellow cards saw their hopes of beating the Sharks go up in smoke before they saw red late to rub salt in the wounds. Yes, they’re coming off big back-to-back losses but those were against fellow top-five teams.

The Dragons lost 33-17 to a Scarlets side who played with 14 men for 47 minutes last weekend. They’re winless in their last six games in all competitions and languish in 14th position. They’re very much a home team – all three of their wins were in their backyard but even so, they lost their last two ties at home.  

This is a gut check for Jake White’s men. It won’t be easy by any means but this is the type of game they must win if they want to stay in the playoff picture. I’m expecting the fight that fuelled their late hot streak all the way to the final last season to come to the fore and lead them to victory in the rain.

Prediction: Bulls by 2.

Suggested Bet: Dragons +8.5 at 1.88.

Munster v Lions

Friday, 6 January – 21:35

From a psychological perspective, the Lions will put their heavy defeats to the Sharks and Stormers down to their dreadful record against South African sides. Unfortunately for the pride of Johannesburg, it runs deeper than that, with injuries also playing a part.

To make matters worse, they’re running into Munster at the worst possible time. Graham Rowntree’s team are hitting their straps and won’t undo their 15-14 away win over Ulster by underestimating the Lions. Because of the rain, I’m going with the visitors on the plus.

Prediction: Munster by 16.

Suggested Bet: Lions +17.5 at 1.93.

Benetton v Ulster

Saturday, 7 January – 15:00

Ulster’s heart-breaking last-minute loss to Munster was the worst possible result for Benetton. The Irish club, whose only previous defeats were against unbeaten Leinster, will be fully switched on as a result and sidestep the banana peel in Treviso that tripped up Glasgow and Edinburgh early in the season. The Italian side banked maximum points in their derbies against Zebre in recent weeks but Ulster are too big of a step up for them to make it three in a row.

Prediction: Ulster by 10.

Suggested Bet: Ulster -4.5 at 1.82.

Edinburgh v Zebre

Saturday, 7 January – 17:00

Edinburgh are in a foul mood after surrendering the 1872 Cup and lead in the Scottish/Italian Shield to Glasgow over the last fortnight and they’ll start to claw their way back with a bonus-point victory over winless Zebre, who started well but crashed to a 40-17 loss to Benetton after Lorenzo Pani saw red in the first half. With rain on the cards, I don’t see Edinburgh covering the spread.

Prediction: Edinburgh by 15.

Suggested Bet: Zebre +23.5 at 1.87.

Connacht v Sharks

Saturday, 7 January – 19:15

Whereas the Sharks emphatically won their festive season derbies, Connacht lost both of theirs. They staged a late fightback to nearly snatch a draw against Ulster, succumbing 22-20 at home, and were no match for Leinster last weekend, taking a 41-12 drubbing in Dublin.    

As with all teams hosting South African visitors this weekend, their knowledge of the local conditions and vastly greater experience of playing wet-weather rugby give them a key advantage, but the Sharks have the Springbok-loaded pack to power onwards and upwards to their sixth straight win under Neil Powell. 

Prediction: Sharks by 3.

Suggested Bet: Sharks at 1.74.

Cardiff v Scarlets

Saturday, 7 January – 19:15

Sione Kalamafoni’s first-half red card galvanised the Scarlets as they overcame the numerical disadvantage in style to claim a 33-17 victory over the Dragons. It was just their second win of the season, so don’t expect too much from them. 

Cardiff will be kicking themselves for dropping their derby against the Ospreys, Jarrod Evans missing a last-gasp penalty goal that would’ve salvaged a draw, but they still have a five-point lead atop the Welsh Shield and have too much class for the Scarlets. 

Prediction: Cardiff by 9. 

Suggested Bet: Cardiff -8.5 at 1.80.

Ospreys v Leinster

Saturday, 7 January – 21:35

The Ospreys pack stood up and delivered in a big way against Cardiff and the nail-biting 22-19 upset will give them belief as they welcome the undefeated log leaders. However, they don’t have the stamina to go 80 hard minutes against Leinster, who’ll pull away.  

Prediction: Leinster by 15.

Suggested Bet: Leinster -12.5 at 1.80.

Glasgow Warriors v Stormers

Sunday, 8 January – 17:00

Both sides dazzled last weekend, Glasgow romping to a 32-25 away win over rivals Edinburgh – the second in as many weeks to reclaim the 1872 Cup – and the Stormers lashing the Lions 40-8. 

Franco Smith’s men are on a five-match winning streak overall and are in better shape than the Stormers considering the Cape side’s ever-growing injury list. 

Given Glasgow’s form and that the Stormers are without Frans Malherbe, Evan Roos, Herschel Jantjies, Ruhan Nel, Gary Porter, Nama Xaba, Salmaan Moerat, Adre Smith and Seabelo Senatla, I have to side with the hosts. 

Prediction: Glasgow Warriors by 3. 

Suggested Bet: Glasgow Warriors at 1.95.