United Rugby Championship Predictions – Round 10

The United Rugby Championship will serve up nothing but delectable derbies over the Christmas weekend, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

The action starts with South African showdowns in Durban and Cape Town, where the Sharks and Stormers host the Lions and Bulls respectively on Friday. 

Saturday’s lone fixture is an Italian affair with Benetton welcoming Zebre to Treviso while there are three matches on Boxing Day.

Sharks v Ospreys

Friday, 23 December – 17:00

Don’t sleep on the Lions. Yes, they have a dreadful record against fellow South African sides, but they’ll be convinced that they’ll spoil the Sharks’ homecoming. 

This is the type of game that’s tripped up the Durbanites so many times in the past – one they’re expected to win. The long journey to Bordeaux was a successful but taxing one that left them a step behind the Lions in terms of preparing for this derby. Not only that, they’ll likely have to rest some of their Springbok superstars, who’ve had a gruelling season. 

The Lions, buoyed by their 30-12 home win over Stade Francais, will test the temperament of the Sharks from the jump and how the hosts respond to that pressure will determine who comes out on top. The Sharks have the power to pierce the Lions through the gut and while I see them getting the W, it’s worth sprinkling a few pennies on the Lions. 

Prediction: Sharks by 9. 

Suggested Bet: Lions +11.5 at 1.83

Stormers v Bulls

Friday, 23 December – 19:15

The traditional North-South derby is the big one this weekend. For all they’ve achieved under former World Cup-winning Springbok coach Jake White, they haven’t been able to beat their arch-rivals, with the loss in last season’s URC final being particularly painful and the last time the teams met. 

To break that duck, White rested his frontline players over the last two weeks, fielding a ‘B’ team in the two European Champions Cup clashes, whereas John Dobson employed his big guns to get the win over London Irish last weekend.

It was a scrappy performance by the Capetonians, a week removed from their loss to Castres in France, and deepened their lock injury crisis. All these factors combined mean while the Stormers are rightful favourites, the fresh and fully-focused Bulls won’t get a better chance to get one over their biggest foes.

Therefore, they are value underdogs. 

Prediction: Bulls by 2. 

Suggested Bet: Bulls at 2.45.

Glasgow Warriors v Edinburgh

Friday, 23 December – 21:35

It’ll be cold and wet when the Scottish rivals square off. More than top spot in the Scottish/Italian Shield is on the line as it doubles as the first leg in the battle for the 1872 Cup, which is decided on aggregate. They split the series last season as both teams prevailed at home, with Edinburgh eking it 45-41 on aggregate.      

The men from the capital also hold a three-point lead over their arch-rivals at the top of the Shield rankings but have played one more game. They’ve dropped their last two URC matches but scored a confidence-building 31-20 win over Castres at the weekend. 

The Warriors have won three in a row in all competitions and home-ground advantage should see them squeeze out the win.

Prediction: Glasgow Warriors by 1.

Suggested Bet: Edinburgh +3.5 at 1.85.

Connacht v Ulster

Friday, 23 December – 21:35

It’ll be a slugfest in the rain in Galway as well. Connacht won’t shy away from a toe-to-toe fight as their set pieces have been among the best this season. Where Ulster – who did the double over their baby brother last season – have the advantage is cohesion, particularly with their relentless offence. 

With their big-name stars and superior depth, they should win the gain line battle, which will hold added importance in the wet conditions. Connacht, who find themselves at the foot of the Irish Shield, are also guilty of being hit and miss at the breakdown, so I expect Ulster to prevail. 

Prediction: Ulster by 7.

Suggested Bet: Ulster at 2.15.

Benetton v Zebre

Saturday, 24 December – 14:30

Benetton won last season’s meetings 39-14 and 39-17 and they’ll win by a similar margin here. Zebre know how to score tries but their defence has been a bottomless pit of sorrow. Still winless, they’re also set to be blown away at the breakdown. 

Prediction: Benetton by 15.

Suggested Bet: Benetton -11.5 at 1.84.

Dragons v Cardiff

Monday, 26 December – 16:15

Speaking of the breakdown, Cardiff have been the silent assassins of the season so far. Their 71 turnovers are the most in the league and they’ll feast at ruck time against the hosts, who rank eighth in this department with 54 turnovers.

What’s more, the Dragons can’t buy a win in this rivalry. Cardiff, who have a six-point cushion over them at the summit of the Welsh Shield, have won the last 15 matches between these two teams dating back to 2015 and they’ll continue that streak.

Prediction: Cardiff by 10.

Suggested Bet: Cardiff -4.5 at 1.83.

Ospreys v Scarlets

Monday, 26 December – 19:15

The basement battle of the Welsh Shield won’t attract many South African eyeballs but it’s intriguing on the betting front as they played to a 23-all draw in Round One. The Scarlets let that encounter slip as they conceded a late try that resulted in the stalemate. 

They won both of their European Challenge Cup games (39-7 against Bayonne and 45-26 against the Cheetahs) over the last fortnight but the Ospreys’ 21-10 upset victory over Montpellier away from home in the European Champions Cup is a monumental result and I’m backing them to ride that wave to the URC win column. 

Prediction: Ospreys by 2. 

Suggested Bet: Scarlets +6.5 at 1.85.

Munster v Leinster

Monday, 26 December – 21:35

Traditionally, this is a humdinger that could go either way. Munster haven’t been the powerhouse of years past this season, however, their recent European Champions Cup heroics – which saw them give French giants Toulouse a real go (losing 18-13) and upset the Saints 17-6 in Northampton – give them a glimmer of hope.

Having said that, unbeaten log leaders Leinster’s dominance extended to the European showcase. Leo Cullen’s charges crushed Racing 92 42-10 and Gloucester 57-0 and there’s nothing to suggest there’s an upset on the cards in rainy Limerick.  

Prediction: Leinster by 12.

Suggested Bet: Leinster -4.5 at 1.83.