United Rugby Championship Predictions – Round 6

The Bulls will look to exorcise some travel demons and get their campaign back on track when they start off Round Six of the United Rugby Championship against Benetton in Treviso on Friday night, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

On Saturday, the rugby matches continue with the Lions and Sharks who welcome Glasgow and Ulster to Johannesburg and Durban respectively, while the Stormers are in the Welsh capital for a clash against Cardiff.

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Benetton v Bulls

Friday, 21 October – 18:30

Coming off humiliating losses, these two teams will be driven by desperation. What was thought to be a one-off howler turned into two for the Bulls in Limerick last weekend.

Jake White has presented a picture of calmness, but the brutal manner of the 31-17 loss to Munster was such a horror show that serious introspection is needed.

Benetton are no easy out, even if Edinburgh made it look like they are with their 58-3 rout. They’re particularly tough customers at home, where the Bulls will have flashbacks of the 35-8 pummelling they endured in the PRO14 Rainbow Cup final last year.

Looking at the last two weeks, you wouldn’t think the Bulls have the more powerful pack but they do. It’s all about attitude for the men from Pretoria after being criminally passive of late.

It won’t be pretty as getting out of their static offensive slump will be further complicated by wet conditions, but I expect the Bulls to bring the fire they’ve been lacking to finish their tour on a positive note. 

Prediction: Bulls by 5. 

Suggested Bet: Bulls -3.5 at 1.85.

Connacht v Scarlets

Friday, 21 October – 20:35

The Scarlets will fancy their chances after sealing their first win of the season over Zebre (36-12) while Connacht were shut out (10-0) by Leinster last weekend.

Home ground advantage could be the deciding factor on a rainy night but then again, Connacht couldn’t get on the board against the log leaders in similar circumstances. With a league-low 59, points have, indeed, been hard to come by for the hosts.

They’re still favoured (1.40 outright and -6.5 at 1.86) but with the Scarlets having a slightly stronger scrum and steadier lineout, I’ll be sprinkling a few pennies on them as my underdogs of the week

Prediction: Scarlets by 2. 

Suggested Bet: Scarlets at 2.80.

Zebre v Edinburgh

Saturday, 22 October – 14:00

After their above-mentioned 24-point loss to the Scarlets, Zebre have lost all the zest they had in the first two rounds and they’ll endure another heavy defeat at the hands of Edinburgh, who put 50 past the better of the two Italian sides in a Duane van der Merwe-inspired mauling. 

Prediction: Edinburgh by 28. 

Suggested Bet: Edinburgh -13.5 at 1.80.

Lions v Glasgow Warriors

Saturday, 22 October – 16:05

Usually, hyenas pounce to pick the meat off carcasses hunted by other predators, but this weekend it’s the Lions’ opportunity to sink their teeth into a Glasgow team who suffered a shark attack in Durban.

Make no mistake, the visitors are still kicking, but the bruising 40-12 defeat they were dealt by the Sharks has teed it up perfectly for a game Lions team to capitalise.

While they did go down 39-37 to Ulster last weekend, much of it was their own doing as the Irishmen scored 19 points while the Lions were down to 14 men.

The rain will favour the Warriors, but the energy and fighting spirit the Lions have brought to every game so far, along with their scrum that got the better of Ulster, should enable them to bounce back.

Prediction: Lions by 5. 

Suggested Bet: Glasgow Warriors +7.5 at 1.85.

Sharks v Ulster

Saturday, 22 October – 18:15

The match of the weekend from a South African perspective will play out in Durban, where the Sharks face their stiffest test of the season to date. The bonus-point triumph at Ellis Park was Ulster’s first on South African soil in the URC (post-PRO14), so the Irish outfit will be high on confidence.

After ending a successful tour with a heavy loss to Leinster, the Sharks’ homecoming served as a hard reset as the Springbok-bolstered side put the Warriors to the sword.

The blockbuster signing of Eben Etzebeth paid immediate dividends and the feared enforcer will have a pivotal role to play again in what’ll be a significantly more physically intense battle than last weekend. 

Having shown what they’re capable of with their Springboks in the mix, this is the perfect assignment for the star-studded Sharks to show they plan on delivering on their rich potential this season. Lose this one and the public perception will revert to them being highly-paid title pretenders.

Ulster are excellent at the breakdown, a point Duane Vermeulen underlined against the Lions, lethal if allowed to establish rhythm and dangerous on the counter attack. The keys to victory for the hosts are to win the battle upfront and stay disciplined, especially with rain showers possible.

They’re set to unleash their strongest possible team and the Springbok-laden pack should power them over the line.   

Prediction: Sharks by 7. 

Suggested Bet: Sharks -5-5 at 1.84.

Leinster v Munster

Saturday, 22 October – 1815

Munster desperately needed the type of performance they produced against the Bulls to give themselves a shot against their arch-rivals.

They looked more like the title contenders they were expected to be with their hustle and muscle, which makes the big Irish derby far more interesting on the betting front.   

Leinster were forced into a dog fight by Connacht but still left a wet and windy Galway with a 10-0 win to make it a perfect five from five.

The log leaders have all their ducks in a row whereas Munster are still finding their way, so expect a power-based wet weather win for Leinster.

Prediction: Leinster by 10. 

Suggested Bet: Munster +11.5 at 1.85.

Cardiff v Stormers

Saturday, 22 October – 20:35

Cardiff will be buoyed that their countrymen the Ospreys held the Stormers to a draw last weekend and have registered back-to-back wins.

Those, though, were over fellow Welsh sides the Scarlets (16-10) and Dragons (31-14), not exactly championship teams like the one they’ll face this weekend. Let’s also not forget they lost 31-18 to the Lions in Round Three. 

Still, the defending champions will have to do more than just show up to get the win. One can’t be too critical of their last performance given the torrential rain but their lineout woes are a course for concern while they’ll seek to be sharper after they were blown out of the water at the breakdown.

They’ll be better for the storm they negotiated in Swansea from a game-management perspective and will welcome the drizzle in Cardiff by comparison. They’ll be smarter, slicker, and stronger and will leave the Welsh capital with their unbeaten record intact.

Prediction: Stormers by 10.

Suggested Bet: Stormers -5.5 at 1.84.

Dragons v Ospreys

Sunday,23 October – 16:00

We close out the round with a Welsh derby. Should the Stormers prevail as we’re predicting, a win here will see the Ospreys overtake Cardiff at the top of the Shield standings

The stalemate with the Stormers was the Ospreys’ second of the season while they also have a big win over the Warriors. The Dragons haven’t shown the same grit or potential. They were blown out in three of their four losses and a thunderstorm won’t help them turn the tide. It will soften the blow, though.

Prediction: Ospreys by 7. 

Suggested Bet: Ospreys -2.5 at 1.86.