URC Predictions – Round 8

The South African focus is on Saturday’s local showdowns in Cape Town and Durban, where the Stormers square off with the Lions and the Sharks battle the Bulls respectively.  

Ulster v Munster

When: Friday, 20 December – 21:35 SAST

A hard-hitting Irish affair gets the derby action underway on Friday night. Both teams have underperformed thus far and are outside of the top eight, Ulster lying 10th and Munster 11th, both with a 3-4 record.

However, where Ulster’s woes are worsening, Munster are showing real improvement. Ulster’s heavy Champions Cup defeats to Toulouse (61-21) and Bordeaux-Begles (40-19) have stretched their losing streak to four and widened the cracks in their foundation.

Munster, meanwhile, won their first two games after Graham Rowntree’s departure and pushed Castres close last weekend, succumbing 16-14 away from home. Thus, form suggests the visitors will come away with the win.

Prediction: Munster by 5.
Suggested Bet: Munster at 2.00.

Benetton v Zebre

When: Saturday, 21 December – 15:00 SAST

While not much was expected from perennial wooden spoonists Zebre, Benetton have been very disappointing this season. Down in 12th position, their execution has been off and their energy is lacking compared to last season.

Having said that, their 22-21 win over Premiership leaders Bath in the Champions Cup last weekend was huge for them. It snapped a three-match losing streak in all competitions and should serve as a boost to ensure they send 15th-placed Zebre home empty-handed.

Prediction: Benetton by 12.
Suggested Bet: Zebre +15.5 at 1.83.

Stormers v Lions

When: Saturday, 21 December – 15:45 SAST

The Lions smell blood and are looking to pounce on a wounded and struggling Stormers side who’ve lost their last four games in all competitions.

The Pride have impressed in the URC so far and find themselves in fifth place thanks to a greater tactical appreciation than in seasons past. With a timely 43-35 win over Pau in the Challenge Cup last weekend, they have momentum and confidence on their side.

Their famous 37-19 win in Cape Town in 2021 is fresh in many fans’ memories, but the Stormers have won all five meetings between the sides since. John Dobson’s men are down in 13th place with just two wins from their six outings and are coming off a 53-16 loss to Harlequins in the Champions Cup last weekend.

The injury-hit Capetonians are expected to welcome back some big-name players this week and are favourites as a result, but I see real value in the more cohesive Lions as underdogs.

Prediction: Lions by 2.
Suggested Bet: Lions at 2.10.

Sharks v Bulls

When: Saturday, 21 December – 18:00 SAST

There will be a Test-like atmosphere, intensity and physicality at Kings Park as the Bok-laden Sharks battle the Bulls.

The visitors are third, three places above the hosts, but the Durbanites have key advantages that suggest they’ll emerge victorious.

Firstly, they’ll be a much fresher team, having sent a second-string side to England to lose to Leicester while the Bulls’ ‘A’ team were battered and beaten by the Northampton Saints last weekend.

Secondly, they have superior depth, which should make an especially big difference when the replacement props come on given how the Bulls’ scrum creaked after the starters departed last weekend.

And thirdly, they’re at home and more used to the humidity and slippery ball, which must be a concern for Bulls’ fans after their team’s high knock-on rate last weekend.

These factors are, at the same time, motivation for the Bulls to go to Durban and show what they’re really all about and upset the star-studded Sharks. One shouldn’t write off the visitors, but you have to think the Sharks will have too much in the tank.

Prediction: Sharks by 7.
Suggested Bet: Sharks -5.5 at 1.84.

Ospreys v Scarlets

When: Saturday, 21 December – 19:15 SAST

Hamstrung by inconsistency, the 14th-placed Ospreys have traded wins and losses in their last five games in all competitions. They’re due a win this weekend according to that trend as they lost 59-15 at Montpellier last weekend.

More importantly, they’ve won their last two home games, besting Edinburgh 22-13 and the Lions 30-14. That, coupled with the fact that they haven’t lost to the Scarlets since January 2021, should see them pip their ninth-placed visitors.

Prediction: Ospreys by 3.
Suggested Bet: Scarlets +5.5 at 1.83.

Leinster v Connacht

When: Saturday, 21 December – 19:30 SAST

Sitting pretty at the top of the log and undefeated in all competitions, Leinster have been unstoppable thus far but didn’t have it all their own way in the Champions Cup last weekend.

The Irish giants were made to work hard for their 15-7 win over Clermont and Connacht will take inspiration from the successes the French outfit had as they look to upset the applecart.

Leinster eased to a 33-12 win in their previous meeting with Connacht in October and they should coast to another convincing victory.

Prediction: Leinster by 17.
Suggested Bet: Leinster -14.5 at 1.84.

Glasgow Warriors v Edinburgh

When: Sunday, 22 December – 17:00 SAST

The battle for the 1872 Cup begins again. The two Scottish clubs compete for the trophy with the aggregate score of their two league games determining the winners.

Holders Glasgow have shown great form and are second on the log with five wins and two losses. The defending URC champions even almost beat Toulon in France last weekend, going down 30-29.

Seventh-placed Edinburgh are fresh off a 52-12 Challenge Cup win over Bayonne, but are too inconsistent to back as underdogs. The Warriors should have it their way.

Prediction: Glasgow Warriors by 12.
Suggested Bet: Glasgow Warriors -10.5 at 1.84.

Dragons v Cardiff

When: Thursday, 26 December – 19:15 SAST

These two Welsh clubs have to wait until Boxing Day to duke it out. Cardiff are the top-ranked Welsh side in fourth place while the Dragons are dead last.

The Dragons, however, scored a morale-boosting 22-14 away win over the Newcastle Falcons in the Challenge Cup last weekend and only eight points separated the sides in their previous meeting in Cardiff, with the hosts winning 31-23.

So, it should be closer than you’d initially think.   

Prediction: Cardiff by 4.
Suggested Bet: Dragons +4.5 at 1.84.