United Rugby Championship Predictions – Round 6

Players will leave everything out on the park in the final round of United Rugby Championship action before the November Test window this weekend, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

The Bulls will start the South African surge in Treviso, where they tackle Benetton on Friday night, with the rest of the local sides set to take the field on Saturday.

The Stormers will cross swords with the Glasgow Warriors in Stellenbosch, the Sharks host Munster in Durban and the Lions face Leinster in a top-of-the-table clash in Dublin.

Scarlets v Zebre

Friday, 25 October – 20:35

The Scarlets will be high on confidence after their 23-22 come-from-behind win over the Bulls last Friday. The Welsh side were scrappy as they stayed in the fight and, helped by a dubious red card and a Bulls team that went off the boil after the break, they managed to upset last season’s runners-up.

There are work-ons for the Scarlets – they conceded needless penalties, put themselves under pressure with poor exits and can do with more variation on attack – but the win would’ve done wonders for them and makes them solid favourites this week.

Zebre, aided by wet conditions, almost upset the Lions last weekend in a performance that would’ve given them renewed hope. They played the smarter rugby and kicked better, particularly in the second half, and had they not squandered three opportunities at the death, they would’ve sealed their second win.

It’ll be tougher on the road this Friday and they’ll have to take their chances to have any shot at victory. At home, you’d have to fancy the Scarlets to come away with the spoils.

Prediction: Zebre +18.5 at 1.83.

Benetton v Bulls

Friday, 25 October – 20:35

Unbeaten no more, the Bulls will look to bounce back after their frustrating loss in Llanelli last Friday. Jake White’s men were on the wrong side of a controversial red card for the second week in a row, but they also had themselves to blame for the one-point defeat as they should’ve put the Scarlets to bed in the first 60 minutes.

The Pretoria outfit have been starting games well enough but lack killer instinct. They dominated the first half, yet the Scarlets would’ve been the happier side at halftime, trailing by just nine points. Again shocking in the second half, they scored just three points in this period and allowed the unfancied Welsh side to snatch victory.

Consistency is a real issue and that’ll be tested by a patient side like Benetton. They’ll also want to eliminate their inaccuracy in the red zone and work on making their driving maul, which has been a mess, a weapon again.

After a dreadful start, Benetton have won two in a row, following up their 38-10 thrashing of the Sharks with a 31-21 victory over the Dragons last weekend. The Bulls have won each of the four fixtures between the sides since their stinging 35-8 loss to the Italian side in the Rainbow Cup final in 2021 and should continue that trend if they stay disciplined.

Prediction: Bulls -4.5 at 1.83.

Stormers v Glasgow Warriors

Saturday, 26 October – 13:45

Their first home game signalled a fresh start for the Stormers as they jumped four places from the foot of the table to 12th with their 34-19 win over Munster last weekend.

Though they had serious lineout issues and were disjointed on attack, they won the collisions and closed out the game well to clinch their second win of the season and break their duck against their Irish rivals.

Though they came up four points short in Durban last weekend, the Warriors will take a lot of confidence into the Stellenbosch showdown. They were within one score against a Springbok-laden Sharks team up until the 65th minute and secured two bonus points with their two late tries.

If they improve their discipline, having conceded 12 penalties and a yellow card last weekend, they could be a handful for the Stormers. Having said that, the way the Stormers clicked into gear in the final quarter last weekend leaves them set to turn back Franco Smith’s troops.

Prediction: Stormers -7.5 at 1.84.

Ospreys v Edinburgh

Saturday, 26 October – 16:00

Whereas Edinburgh are starting to build momentum, the Ospreys are still stuck in first gear. The Welsh side have only managed a solitary win, their 37-24 triumph over the Stormers in Round Two, and are coming off a 36-12 hiding by Ulster.

After pushing Leinster close in the opening round and a tough South African tour, Edinburgh have banked big back-to-back wins over the Stormers (38-7) and Cardiff (27-8) and have too much muscle upfront and weapons at the back for the Ospreys to contend with.

Prediction: Edinburgh -6.5 at 1.83.

Sharks v Munster

Saturday, 26 October – 16:00

A different team with their slew of returning Springboks, the Sharks shot down the Warriors with their power and pace last weekend.

Their tight five did the business and their physicality overall was much improved. However, they’re aware there’s room for improvement and having had last weekend’s hit-out, you’d expect them to have better synergy this time around.

It’s needed on defence as they were twice found out on their right flank and gifted Glasgow two bonus points by switching off with five minutes to go.

Munster didn’t fire many shots in their 34-19 loss in Cape Town last weekend. There were passes to no one and others that didn’t go to hand. Their driving maul produced a try so that’ll be a weapon they’ll use, especially after Glasgow breached the Sharks’ line that way.

However, they won’t be able to hang with the Durbanites’ power, which should lead to a comfortable win for the hosts.  

Prediction: Sharks by 15.

Leinster v Lions

Saturday, 26 October – 18:15

The Lions go from one extreme to the next this week in the battle of the two remaining unbeaten teams. The rain in Palma required both them and Zebre to play a territory-based game, which the Pride ultimately pipped through dogged defence.

However, the conditions meant they had to repel one-off runners. It’ll be a completely different story this time around with Leinster being renowned for their ruck speed and ruthless efficiency on attack.

As solid as the Lions’ defence has been (they’ve conceded just 10 tries, the least in the league along with Leinster and the Bulls), they won’t be able to contain the free-flowing log leaders, whose 33-12 away triumph over Connacht last weekend was their fifth straight bonus-point win.

The Lions will put up a fight, but their undefeated streak will come to an end at the Aviva.

Prediction: Leinster by 17.

Connacht v Dragons

Saturday, 26 October – 20:35

Connacht have faced top-calibre competition so far aside from the Scarlets and are 2-3 as a result, with wins over the Scarlets away (24-23) and the Sharks at home (36-30) and losses to fellow Irish clubs Munster (35-33), Ulster (32-27) and most recently Leinster (33-12). 

This is thus their easiest match on paper and a golden opportunity for them to pick up maximum points against a Dragons’ side who’ve lost four on the trot. Connacht should canter to a comfortable win. 

Prediction: Connacht by 19.

Cardiff v Ulster

Saturday, 26 October – 20:35

It didn’t take long for cracks to appear in Cardiff’s foundation. After kicking off their campaign with wins over Zebre (22-17) and the Scarlets (24-15), they’ve crashed to three consecutive losses to the self-same Scarlets (25-19), Glasgow (52-36) and Edinburgh (27-8).

Ulster’s 36-12 win over the Ospreys last weekend was their third of the season following victories over Glasgow (20-19) and Connacht (32-27), with their losses coming to the Lions (35-22) and Bulls (47-21) in South Africa. They’re a cut above Cardiff and will leave the Welsh capital victorious.

Prediction: Ulster by 12.