United Rugby Championship Predictions – Round 5

The Sharks and Stormers will want to make home-ground advantage count when they host the champions of the last two seasons in the fifth round of the United Rugby Championship this weekend, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

The Durbanites host the defending champion Glasgow Warriors at Kings Park and the Capetonians meet Munster at DHL Stadium on Saturday in a repeat of the 2022-23 grand final.

Before that, the Bulls square off against the Scarlets in Llanelli on Friday night and the Lions tackle Zebre in Parma on Saturday afternoon.

Scarlets v Bulls

Friday, 18 October – 20:35

Play for 80 minutes. That’ll be the Bulls’ mission this weekend after blowing the Ospreys away in the first half and going off the boil in the second last weekend.

Seemingly out to make a statement, the Herd scored four tries in the first half to lead 26-5 at halftime. However, they dropped off in intensity and lost their discipline after the break, conceding a red card and two yellows and adding just three points to their tally for a 29-19 win.

Nevertheless, they’ll take a full house to start their tour but as a title-chasing team, last season’s runners-up will be out for an improved, complete performance. That will be needed against a plucky Scarlets side coming off their first win of the season, a surprise 25-19 away triumph over Cardiff.

They lost to the self-same Cardiff (24-15) and Connacht (24-23) in their home games and drew 20-all with Benetton in the opening round. They beat the Bulls 37-21 in the only previous meeting between the sides in Wales, so the men from Pretoria know they’ll have to work for the win. Injuries will complicate their task. However, they have the depth to remain undefeated this season. 

Prediction: Bulls by 10.

Suggested Bet: Scarlets +12.5 at 1.84.

Ulster v Ospreys

Friday, 18 October – 20:35

Ulster put their winless South African tour behind them with a 32-27 win over Connacht last weekend, their second victory of the season after their 20-19 opening-round triumph over the Glasgow Warriors.

After being outclassed by the Bulls last weekend, the Ospreys are now on a two-match losing skid with their only win being a 37-24 triumph over the Stormers in Round Two.

Unable to do much, even when the Bulls were down to 12 men, the Welsh side will come up well short in Belfast.  

Prediction: Ulster by 16.

Suggested Bet: Ulster -14.5 at 1.84.

Zebre v Lions

Saturday, 19 October – 13:30

The Lions showed in their 23-19 win in Newport last weekend that they’re not just a running team. Yes, they’re at their best when they’re playing high-octane offensive ball but that’s not necessarily all they’re capable of.

Against the Dragons, they showed in the second half that they can play a calculated kicking game and rely on their defence to hold firm. The game also highlighted the depth they are building with their replacements making an impact. Having said that, they’ll look to be more lethal with ball in hand this weekend.

Having lost their last two games by 31 (against the Stormers) and 30 points (against the Glasgow Warriors) respectively, Zebre’s shock 42-33 win over Munster in Round Two suddenly feels like a lifetime ago and with the weapons at the Lions’ disposal, the Pride should roar to victory.

Prediction: Lions by 24.

Suggested Bet: Lions -13.5 at 1.83.

Sharks v Glasgow Warriors

Saturday, 19 October – 15:45

The Sharks will be happy to be back home after their three-match tour came to a crushing end in Treviso last weekend.

Lacklustre and error-strewn, they let in two soft tries and suffered a 14-point swing after an overthrow at a lineout on Benetton’s 5m line, which saw them trail 24-3 at halftime.

They showed a bit more urgency in the second half but had little sting in their attack, made plenty of basic handling errors and lost the ball in contact throughout the match, things they will no doubt work on this week following their 38-10 defeat.   

After a 20-19 loss to Munster in the opening round, the Warriors have recorded three convincing victories over Benetton (42-10), Cardiff (52-36) and Zebre (33-3) to sit in second place, a full 12 spots ahead of the Sharks. They’ve been superb on attack, scoring a league-leading 22 tries, so defence will be at the top of the Durbanites’ agenda.

The Sharks are 1-2 against the defending champions but won the only previous clash at Kings Park 40-12 in 2022. Reinvigorated by their homecoming and set to be boosted by a few returning Springboks, the Sharks should turn the tide. 

Prediction: Sharks by 7.

Suggested Bet: Sharks -6.5 at 1.84.

Stormers v Munster

Saturday, 19 October – 18:00

Narrow margins (having two tries disallowed) and costly errors – many unforced – led to a disappointing 38-7 defeat for the Stormers in the Scottish capital last weekend.

Under the pump from the kick off, they did well to keep Edinburgh out initially but then conceded two tries in quick succession. They used their scrum as a weapon for as long the starters were on, but the Capetonians put so much pressure on themselves with mistakes and poor decision-making that they never looked like troubling the hosts. Their exits also need a lot of work.  

Fortunately for the Stormers, who find themselves at the foot of the table, they’re back home where they are a different beast. Munster, meanwhile, are 2-2 having lost both of their away games. The first was the shock loss to Zebre and the second was last weekend’s 26-12 defeat to Leinster.

That said, they’ve had the Stormers’ number. The Irish outfit are undefeated against John Dobson’s men and famously edged them 19-14 in Cape Town in the 2022-23 grand final. With that type of history and the fact that the Stormers won’t be welcoming back any Boks, Munster are value underdogs. 

Prediction: Munster by 3.

Suggested Bet: Munster at 2.65.

Edinburgh v Cardiff

Saturday, 19 October – 18:15

Edinburgh redeemed themselves as they went from trailing 48-0 at halftime against the Lions the previous week to leading 14-7 at the same stage against the Stormers and ran out emphatic 38-7 winners to break their duck last weekend.

Sean Everitt’s men looked like a team transformed, one with power and patience on attack, a good kicking game and a proud defensive line, all of which will make them tough to beat in their backyard. The lineout is one area Cardiff can target, though.

Done in 25-19 by the Scarlets in a game they were expected to win at home, Cardiff are licking their wounds. They’ve lost the last three encounters against Edinburgh and that streak will continue.

Prediction: Edinburgh by 14.

Suggested Bet: Edinburgh -12.5 at 1.84.

Connacht v Leinster

Saturday, 19 October – 20:35

Can Connacht stop the Leinster express? It’s unlikely. The smallest of the four Irish clubs were competitive against Munster in Round One and Ulster last weekend, losing 35-33 and 32-27. They do have home-ground advantage this time, but that’s helped little as Leinster have won nine straight in this rivalry.

Leo Cullen’s charges have been imperious out of the gate and are top of the table having claimed a full house of 20 log points from their four games. Connacht are fifth with a 2-2 record. Expect the hosts to put up a fight, but Leinster are too well-balanced to trip up.

Prediction: Leinster by 10.

Suggested Bet: Leinster -8.5 at 1.83.

Dragons v Benetton

Saturday, 19 October – 20:35

The Dragons were game in their four-point loss to the Lions last weekend. Perhaps things could’ve been different if they’d made better use of their opportunities in the first half. In with a shot until the end, they just didn’t have the cattle to land the knockout blow and continue to be haunted by handling errors at crucial times.

After three consecutive losses, Benetton came good in style against the Sharks last weekend. They used their opportunities to race into a commanding lead, their contestable kicking was top notch, and they had good line speed and physicality in defence. If anything, they defended too much in the second half but managed to wrap up the bonus point with 12 minutes to spare and won by 28 in the end.

Coming off a morale-boosting win and boasting better depth, bank on Benetton to prevail.

Prediction: Benetton by 5.

Suggested Bet: Benetton -4.5 at 1.83.