United Rugby Championship Predictions – Round 4

The South African sides will seek to strike gold in enemy territory in the fourth round of the United Rugby Championship this weekend, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

The coastal teams conclude their overseas tours, while the Gauteng outfits start theirs.

Saturday will see the Sharks take on Benetton in Treviso, the Stormers square off against Edinburgh in the Scottish capital and the Bulls battle the Ospreys in Swansea, while the Lions face the Dragons in Newport on Sunday.

Glasgow Warriors v Zebre

Friday, 11 October – 20:35

The Warriors ran rampant in their 56-32 win over Cardiff last weekend and beat Benetton 42-10 the previous week, so they’ve shifted into high gear quickly.

Zebre, meanwhile, were brought back down to earth by the Stormers last weekend. Unable to recapture the magic of the previous week’s upset of Munster, they crashed to a 36-5 loss.

This will be one-way traffic with the defending champions claiming the full five log points.

Prediction: Glasgow Warriors by 38.

Suggested Bet: Glasgow Warriors -27.5 at 1.84.

Benetton v Sharks

Saturday, 12 October – 16:00

The Sharks will want to get out of their own way after they made life hard for themselves at Rodney Parade last weekend.

Poor discipline, including conceding two yellow calls, and a number of unforced errors almost saw the Durbanites go down to the Dragons for the first time.

After getting out of jail with a last-gasp 33-30 win, they know they need to be much better going forward. For them, it’s all about sharpening up and capitalising on their strong scrum again.

Benetton are yet to get out of the blocks. One of three winless teams, they find themselves at the bottom of the log and endured a 35-5 home hammering at the hands of Leinster last weekend.

They can be tricky when their kicking game comes off and the Sharks need improvement, but the door is open for John Plumtree’s men to pick up a second win on tour and are value underdogs.

Prediction: Sharks by 3.

Suggested Bet: Sharks at 2.20.

Cardiff v Scarlets

Saturday, 12 October – 16:00

Cardiff will be keen to get right back on the horse after their unbeaten run was ended by the Warriors last weekend. The strongest of the Welsh teams put up a good fight but were outgunned by the defending champions in the end.

The Scarlets, meanwhile, are winless and coming off a 24-23 loss to Connacht. More importantly, Cardiff beat the Scarlets 24-15 in Round Two and stand to win even more comfortably in this return fixture.

Prediction: Cardiff by 12.

Suggested Bet: Cardiff -6.5 at 1.84.

Edinburgh v Stormers

Saturday, 12 October – 18:15

The Stormers showed smarts followed by some much-needed sizzle to seal their first win of the season in Parma last weekend.

They showed patience to build an innings, punishing Zebre for their indiscipline with the boot before unlocking their defence for the first time just before halftime. Rather stale on attack, that changed when Warrick Gelant came on and helped them wrap up the four-try bonus point and a 31-point win.

The Capetonians will be desperate to cut out the unforced errors that cost them field position last weekend and will turn to their powerful scrum to help them play in the right areas of the field.  

Blown off the park in record-breaking fashion by the Lions in the first half last weekend, Edinburgh showed heart to outscore the hosts three tries to one and defend their driving mauls in the second stanza.

The 55-21 loss was a case of things going from bad to worse for the Scottish side, who are winless after three games and in need of answers. They’ll draw on the positives of their second-half performance but need more attacking spark and structure on defence if they are to come good.

John Dobson and his men will know they’ll be up against a different Edinburgh outfit at home and have to earn the right to go wide. They’ve never lost to Edinburgh, boasting three wins while their only previous meeting in the Scottish capital ended in a 20-all stalemate.

It’ll be close, but Edinburgh are ripe for the picking and the Stormers have the goods to keep their streak going.

Prediction: Stormers by 3. 

Suggested Bet: Stormers at 2.45.

Leinster v Munster

Saturday, 12 October – 18:45

Expect high energy and big hits when the Irish giants collide.

Leinster have gotten off to a perfect start and are the early pacesetters with three straight bonus-point wins, while Munster are third despite their shock loss to Zebre in Round Two.

They bounced back from that 42-33 defeat with a 23-0 shutout of the Ospreys last weekend, missing out on a bonus point but showing up well on defence. This, of course, will be a serious step up and a true test of how well they’ve covered the cracks.

Consistency is king and Leinster have been consistently clinical thus far, so I don’t see them tripping up. 

Prediction: Leinster by 10.

Suggested Bet: Munster +13.5 at 1.83.

Ospreys v Bulls

Saturday, 12 October – 20:35

The Bulls will be determined to build on their dominant display against Ulster last weekend.

The Springbok-laden pack flexed their muscles, destroying the Irishmen at scrum time and outclassing them in the lineouts and at the breakdown. In terms of forward dominance, it was as emphatic as it gets as they powered to a 47-21 win.

Having had a taste of that power and control, the men from Pretoria will be hell-bent on pushing on. They’ll also want to tighten up on defence, particularly their first-time tackling.

Kept scoreless by Munster last weekend, the Ospreys are 1-2 with their lone win coming over the Stormers in Round Two. They won’t be able to stand up to the physicality of the Bulls, whom they’ve never beaten, so bank on Jake White’s charges to start their tour on a winning note.

Prediction: Bulls by 10.

Suggested Bet: Bulls -7.5 at 1.83.

Ulster v Connacht

Saturday, 12 October – 21:00

A response is needed from Ulster after they were bullied by the Bulls last weekend.

There was little they could do given how they were manhandled and the fact that they almost got a four-try bonus point, showing an ability to score some excellent five-pointers despite being on the back foot, was a positive they could take away from the Loftus mauling.

It’s not only their bodies but also their egos that are bruised, so they’ll be determined to man up physically and will grow an extra arm and leg being back home after a winless South African tour. All the focus this week will be on strengthening their set pieces.

After a narrow opening-round loss to Munster (35-33), Connacht have managed close wins over the Sharks (36-30) and Scarlets (24-23) and will fancy their chances in this second Irish derby of the weekend.

The local rivals have each won five of the last 10 meetings between them with Ulster edging last year’s corresponding fixture 20-19. It should be tightly contested again with home-ground advantage seeing Ulster through.

Prediction: Ulster by 2.

Suggested Bet: Connacht +4.5 at 1.83.

Dragons v Lions

Sunday, 13 October – 15:30

The Lions will be full of confidence after putting Edinburgh to the sword last weekend. The Pride produced a first-half performance unlike any the URC had seen before, roaring to a record 48-0 lead at halftime and winning 55-21 in the end.

Firing on all cylinders, they showcased supreme continuity and we’re lethal in transition. Given their magic on attack, it would be easy to forget that they dominated the lineouts as well. The work-ons this week will be the scrum and driving maul, while they’ll look to sustain the effort levels in the second half.

It was a case of so close, yet so far for the Dragons against the Sharks last weekend. They were good on the ground, had success with their kicking game early on and showed enterprise on attack to score three first-half tries.

After losing and regaining the lead, their composure came into question and was found wanting as they conceded seven straight penalties at the death before finally conceding the 85th-minute try that cost them the game.

That lack of mental fortitude spells danger for them against the rampant Lions, who should leave Newport with a win.

Prediction: Lions by 9.

Suggested Bet: Lions -7.5 at 1.83.