United Rugby Championship Predictions – Round 3

The South African teams will be keen to kick on in the third round of the United Rugby Championship this weekend, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

All four local sides are in action on Saturday when the Gauteng outfits will seek to build on their successful starts while the coastal franchises will look to register their first wins on tour.

The Lions face Edinburgh at Ellis Park, the Bulls battle Ulster at Loftus Versfeld, the Sharks take on the Dragons in Newport and the Stormers tackle Zebre in Parma.

Scarlets v Connacht

Friday, 4 October – 20:35

Winless after a 20-all opening-round draw with Benetton and a 24-15 home loss to Cardiff last weekend, it’s been a slow start for the Scarlets, and they have another tough task in front of them.

Connacht pushed Munster close away from home in Round One, losing 35-33, and came back from 27-7 down to beat the Sharks 36-30 last weekend. The Irish outfit have shown a lot more than the Scarlets have, they have momentum on their side and have won the last three games between the sides, so they should clinch it.

Prediction: Connacht by 7.  

Suggested Bet: Connacht -5.5 at 1.83.

Cardiff v Glasgow Warriors

Friday, 4 October – 20:35

A low-key cracker is in store in the Welsh capital.

Cardiff are one of just two teams who’ve won both of their opening games, following up a 22-17 win over Zebre with the above-mentioned nine-point win over the Scarlets last weekend to sit second of the log.

After falling just short of picking up a win in Belfast, the Warriors bounced back with an emphatic 42-10 win over Benetton last weekend, showing the sharpness on attack and edge on defence that took them to the title last season.

With superior firepower on both sides of the ball, Glasgow should hand the hosts their first loss.

Prediction: Glasgow Warriors by 5.

Suggested Bet: Cardiff +7.5 at 1.84.

Lions v Edinburgh

Saturday, 5 October – 13:45

The Lions produced a polished first performance as they beat Ulster 35-22. They dominated at scrum time, their lineout functioned like clockwork and their driving maul proved nearly unstoppable and earned them two tries.

The interplay between their forwards and backs was fantastic, they got their counter-rucking going in the second half and the way Quan Horn bossed things from the back was a big positive sign for them. While they’ll look to build on these strengths, their key focus this week will be on their defence after they leaked four tries last weekend.

Edinburgh missed a golden opportunity to leave Loftus with a win last weekend. They simply didn’t take their chances and paid the price with a 22-16 defeat. Things will only be tougher this weekend. Without the set-piece dominance they enjoyed against the Bulls, they’re bound to struggle to get on the front foot and will battle to contain the fast-running Lions.

Their discipline failed them at the death last weekend and with the pressure the Lions will put on them with their high-octane game, I expect the Scots to concede at least one yellow card. Edinburgh will try to make it an arm wrestle, but the Lions should run free and win rather comfortably. 

Prediction: Lions by 12.

Suggested Bet: Lions -8.5 at 1.84.

Bulls v Ulster

Saturday, 5 October – 16:00

Clean up their act. That will be the Bulls’ mission statement after a scrappy six-point win over Edinburgh last weekend.

They were their own worst enemies. Their set pieces were shambolic and their discipline not much better, conceding a plethora of penalties and two yellow cards.

That they were still able to pull off the victory despite being well below their best was pleasing but failing to earn the four-try bonus point was a missed opportunity for the men from Pretoria.

Ulster took forever to get into the game against the Lions last weekend but got themselves right back into it with tries right before and after half-time. They then went off the boil again but didn’t lie down and managed to collect a bonus point in the end.

They require more consistency in concentration and effort and have to get their hands on the ball more if they want to have a chance against the Bulls. That said, expect Jake White’s men to be much sharper and prey on the visitors’ poor maul defence to bank the full five log points.

Prediction: Bulls by 14.

Suggested Bet: Bulls -12.5 at 1.80.

Benetton v Leinster

Saturday, 5 October – 18:15

Boy, Benetton have gotten off to a poor start. Held to a draw by the Scarlets at home in week one and walloped by 30 points by the Warriors away last weekend, the Treviso side have their work cut out for them as they tackle the table-toppers.

After a narrow 33-31 away win over Edinburgh, Leinster ran riot in their first home game last weekend to pick up a dominant 34-6 victory over the Dragons. Set to be boosted by new recruit RG Snyman, the Irish giants will whisk past the struggling Italians.

Prediction: Leinster by 15.

Suggested Bet: Leinster -13.5 at 1.83.

Dragons v Sharks

Saturday, 5 October – 18:15

The Sharks started like a house on fire against Connacht last weekend, but a 100-minute Currie Cup semi-final, 82-minute final and the trip to Ireland caught up with them in the second half as they let a 20-point lead slip and succumbed 36-30.

Two key issues were that they were found wanting at the rucks and couldn’t stop the hosts’ driving maul. The first can be put down to running out of steam, but the second needs technical work to rectify. 

As expected, the Dragons were no match for Leinster last weekend, going down by 28 points, but are back home where they edged the Ospreys 23-21 in Round One.

The Sharks have won all three previous meetings between the teams, including a 20-19 triumph at Rodney Parade in 2022, and should keep that streak going.

Prediction: Sharks by 4.

Suggested Bet: Dragons +7.5 at 1.84.

Munster v Ospreys

Saturday, 5 October – 20:35

Munster will be out for blood after their shock 42-33 loss to Zebre last weekend. While the men from Parma deserve credit, Munster also shot themselves in the foot by overlooking the perennial wooden spoonists. That won’t be the case here.

The Ospreys were patient and stuck to their guns against the Stormers last weekend and it paid dividends as they came away with a 37-24 win. One moment of magic aside, they didn’t show much on attack that would strike fear into teams, but their grit is already apparent.

They’ll want to stay in the fight again for as long as possible to give themselves a shot of snatching victory. However, Munster will channel their anger and frustration and should make up for last weekend’s blunder.

Prediction: Munster by 9.

Suggested Bet: Ospreys +11.5 at 1.83.

Zebre v Stormers

Saturday, 5 October – 20:35

What would’ve been considered a gimme has turned into a potentially tricky tie for the Stormers after their travel woes continued in Wales and Zebre’s stunning upset of Munster last weekend.

After a solid enough first half against the Ospreys that saw them enter the sheds leading 16-13, the Capetonians dropped off significantly, especially in the third quarter, and lost by 13 in the end.

They made far too many soft mistakes, were outgunned on the deck and battled under the high ball. To turn things around, they’ll need to work on these areas, up their physicality and ask more questions on attack.  

Zebre were on fire and did everyone a favour with their shock nine-point triumph over Munster. As dangerous as they can be on attack, they do concede a lot of points and haven’t managed to beat the Stormers.

I just can’t see the Italians replicating last weekend’s performance, which, along with an improved showing by John Dobson’s troops, should see the visitors leave with the spoils.

Prediction: Stormers by 7.

Suggested Bet: Zebre +9.5 at 1.84.