United Rugby Championship Predictions – Round 2

South African sides will seek to set the record straight in the second round of the United Rugby Championship, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

With the Lions emerging from the opening round as the lone victors among the local teams, the rest of the South African outfits will look to turn their fortunes around. 

To further complicate their tasks, the foursome’s set to get their first taste of wet and windy European conditions. In fact, rain is expected to affect all but the two matches taking place in Italy. 

Redemption will drive the Bulls when they take on Connacht in Galway on Friday night, while the Lions will look to make it two from two when they square off against Scarlets in Llanelli at the same time.

The Sharks battle the Glasgow Warriors on Saturday afternoon before the Stormers have the daunting challenge of going up against Munster in Limerick that evening.

Scarlets v Lions

Friday, 1 October – 20:35

Last Friday’s fixture in Parma was the perfect launchpad for the Lions as they not only got the win first-up but also found out how challenging it can be to keep European teams down as Zebre fought back gallantly. Panic notably set in but they avoided disaster and deserved their 38-26 win. 

Littered with Test stars, Scarlets are a significantly stronger side than the lowly Italians and won’t gift the Lions such a head start. They also showed in their 26-22 away loss to Edinburgh that their fight matches their class as they stayed in touch and threatened an upset right up to the end. 

It’ll serve the pride of Johannesburg well to target the rucks where the Welshmen were lackadaisical, both in terms of ball protection and clearing from the base, which Edinburgh exploited brilliantly to snatch a turnover and score through Darcy Graham.  

Better on paper and determined to win their first home game under Dwayne Peel, the hosts should do exactly that.  

Prediction: Scarlets by 10.

Suggested Bet: Lions +13.5 at 1.82.

Connacht v Bulls

Friday, 1 October – 20:35

Best believe Connacht can expect a backlash from a Bulls side who were embarrassed in Dublin. The men from Pretoria are a proud bunch and will be hell-bent on sending a message to the remaining teams at Connacht’s expense. The 31-3 scoreline suggested there were little positives to take out of the loss, but that’s not the case. 

The way they pressured Leinster in the second quarter following the nightmare start would’ve reinforced their belief that they are capable of hanging with the very best Europe have to offer when they play to their potential. Winning away on their maiden voyages will be challenging for the local teams wherever they go, but this is a real opportunity for the Bulls to get off the mark. 

Connacht were soundly defeated by Cardiff, the 33-21 scoreline flattering Jarrad Butler and company. The Bulls backs will be licking their lips after seeing the Irish side sliced open through the centres and on the wings, while they also conceded two tries off maul plays, all of which are strengths of Jake White’s side.  

Prediction: Bulls by 9. 

Suggested Bet: Bulls at 2.40.

Benetton v Edinburgh

Saturday, 2 October – 14:00

Benetton did exactly what was needed to survive the scare the Stormers gave them, staying calm and changing their points of attack to seal their come-from-behind win. Now comes a serious threat – a familiar foe with a new mastermind. 

Edinburgh were made to work hard but gave Mike Blair a winning start to his tenure as head coach as they edged Scarlets 26-22 at their new stadium. They put 50 points on Benetton in a pre-season friendly, but the scoreboard is not the be-all and end-all in warm-up matches. 

League games between the two teams have been tight in recent years with the home side winning the last three. Edinburgh edged the 2018 fixture 31-30 before Benetton claimed back-to-back wins (18-16 and 18-10) in 2018. I see that trend being broken as the visitors have enough firepower to come away with the win.

Prediction: Edinburgh by 6.

Suggested Bet: Edinburgh -1.5 at 1.86.

Glasgow Warriors v Sharks

Saturday, 2 October – 16:00

The performances the teams put forth in their opening round defeats couldn’t have been more different. Gutsy Glasgow exceeded expectations as they gave Ulster a serious run for their money at Kingspan Stadium while the Sharks were blown out of the water by Munster (42-17). 

Like the Bulls, the Sharks are better than what they showed, but their discipline and desire were equally disappointing. They conceded well over a dozen penalties and their slumped body language revealed a beaten team well before the final whistle went. 

Not only were the Warriors far more accurate than the Sharks, but they crucially lived up to their name in the 35-29 away loss to Ulster. Half the battle for the Sharks will be to match the intensity of the hosts. Big ball carriers like Thomas du Toit and Le Roux Roets will play key roles in the rain and if Curwin Bosch comes to the fore with his booming boot, the Sharks will be in with a shout.  

However, with Richie Gray and Duncan Weir at No.5 at No.10 to steer the ship and a world-class back row, Glasgow should get it done with a bit of breathing room. 

Prediction: Glasgow Warriors by 8.

Suggested Bet: Sharks +9.5 at 1.82.

Zebre v Ulster

Saturday, 2 October – 18:15

No analysis is needed here. While Zebre showed good fighting spirit to claw their way back two within 12 points against the Lions, Ulster are levels above them in every way. It won’t be raining in Parma, so I’m expecting a runaway win for the vaunted visitors. 

Prediction: Ulster by at least 21.

Munster v Stormers

Saturday, 2 October – 20:35

That a rusty Munster outfit were much too strong for the Sharks spells trouble for the Stormers. Seriously sloppy in the first half, the Red Army still romped to a 42-17 win and John Dobson’s charges can expect a better version of the star-studded side come Saturday.  

The Capetonians will be kicking themselves for letting victory slip through their fingers in Treviso. The dogged defence that served them so well when they were stuck in their half for most of the first 40 took its toll in the second with Benetton coming back to clinch a 22-18 win. 

They’ll have an ally the Durbanites didn’t in the rain. A cold, wet clash at Thomond Park is no picnic but it’s the lesser of two evils. If they gave Munster the amount of ball they gave Benetton under clear skies it would’ve been ugly. Now, at least, conditions will dilute a lot of the hosts’ dangers.

Like most teams, the Stormers don’t have the pack to compete with Munster in an arm-wrestle and they had major lineout woes last weekend. They’re bound to leave Limerick with a loss but the weather will at least lessen the margin.

Prediction: Munster by 19.

Suggested Bet: Stormers +24.5 at 1.82.

Ospreys v Cardiff

Saturday, 2 October – 20:35

Ospreys will be aiming to make it two derby wins on the trot after beating the Dragons 27-23 in their own backyard to kick off their campaign. Cardiff had it a bit easier as they started at home and made full use of that advantage to conquer Connacht 33-21.

Ospreys have ruled this rivalry in recent years, winning six of the last eight encounters including the last two convincingly earlier this year (17-3 on the road and 36-14 at home), so all signs point to another win for the Rhys Webb-led side.

Prediction: Ospreys by 7. 

Suggested Bet: Ospreys -1.5 at 1.88.

Dragons v Leinster

Sunday, 3 October – 15:00

The weakest of the Welsh teams, the Dragons gave their supporters hope of an improved season when they led at half-time only to surrender their advantage and go down 27-23 to Ospreys last Sunday. The only thing worse than starting off with a loss at home is dropping two straight on your stomping ground and that’s all but inevitable as they host the tournament favourites.

Leinster laid down an emphatic marker in their trampling of the Bulls and the Dragons simply don’t have the capacity to be competitive against the well-oiled Irish giants. Rain will only lead to well-rounded Leinster going to their power game to bulldoze their hosts.  

Prediction: Leinster by 20.

Suggested Bet: Leinster -18.5 at 1.82.