United Rugby Championship Predictions – Round 14

The United Rugby Championship resumes with the South African sides locked in local derbies this weekend, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

Both South African showdowns will be held on the Highveld on Saturday with the Lions hosting the Sharks in Johannesburg before the Bulls welcome arch-rivals the Stormers to Pretoria.

Glasgow Warriors v Ulster

Friday, 17 February – 21:35

The action kicks off in a big way with the fifth-placed team playing host to the third-placed side. Both claimed comprehensive wins before the Six Nations break, Glasgow slaying the Dragons 42-28 and Ulster smashing a second-string Stormers outfit 35-5.

The Warriors’ impeccable home record makes them incredibly enticing. They haven’t lost at their fortress since a 38-31 European Champions Cup defeat to La Rochelle at the start of 2022. However, Ulster were victorious on their last trip to Glasgow in 2019, leaving with a 19-13 win, and their superior depth should see them repeat the feat.

Prediction: Ulster by 3.

Suggested Bet: Ulster at 2.25.

Munster v Ospreys

Friday, 17 February – 21:35

Both of these teams are on the up. Munster have won four of their last five and the Ospreys six of their last seven to surprisingly qualify for the European Champions Cup knockouts. 

The six-place gap between sixth-placed Munster and their visitors highlights the difference in class between them and I can’t see the Welsh region pulling off the upset away from home.

Prediction: Munster by 14.

Suggested Bet: Ospreys +16.5 at 1.83.

Lions v Sharks

Saturday, 18 February – 15:00

With the major gap in budget and pulling power, the Sharks are held to a higher standard than the Lions, who year on year have to make do with youngsters and undesired journeymen. So even though the Lions languish in 13th, five places below the Durbanites, and have to win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive, it’s the Sharks who’re under pressure.

Clearly not the same side without their slew of Springboks, who they’ll have to do without for the next few weeks, they were humiliated 46-19 by the Stormers at home last time out. Neil Powell called that performance unacceptable and will demand redemption.

The Lions have won just one of their last seven games in all competitions and haven’t won a local derby in over a year, so bank on the Sharks to bounce back.

Prediction: Sharks by 7.

Suggested Bet: Sharks -5.5 at 1.88.

Bulls v Stormers

Saturday, 18 February – 17:05

The big clash of the weekend from a local perspective. The North/South derby is always a special attraction filled with pride, passion and extreme physicality. Wins don’t come much sweeter nor losses more painful than against the old enemy.

The Stormers, under John Dobson, are unbeaten against the Jake White-coached Bulls, and if that record continues, the Capetonians will all but clinch the South African Shield for the second consecutive year.

For the Bulls, who’re second in the local conference, a win would finally get the monkey off their back and narrow the current 10-point gap between them and their arch-rivals.

What makes this clash different to the previous ones is the absence of the contracted Springboks, which will severely hamper the visitors, and a massive double boost for the Bulls. The returns of White and Sbu Nkosi, who were both in dark places for different reasons, are much more than just tactical and talent-related.

They transcend sport and that motivation, having a more settled team and home-ground advantage should see them turn back a depleted Stormers side.

Prediction: Bulls by 6.

Suggested Bet: Bulls -4.5 at 1.84.

Zebre v Connacht

Saturday, 18 February – 17:05

Zebre were at home and pushed the Ospreys close in the previous round but went down 28-24 to remain winless. Connacht are a better side than the Ospreys. They beat the Sharks and Lions convincingly in their last two URC fixtures and are within reach of the top eight, so expect the Irish club to claim the full five log points.

Prediction: Connacht by 12.

Suggested Bet: Connacht -10.5 at 1.83.

Scarlets v Edinburgh

Saturday, 18 February – 19:15

Even though Edinburgh haven’t been at their best, many will fancy them as underdogs here. They’re higher-placed – five spots ahead of the Scarlets – but are 1-5 in their last six URC games, with that lone win coming against basement-dwellers Zebre.

The Scarlets, meanwhile, are on a five-match winning streak in all competitions, most recently beating the Bulls 37-28. They had a 92% tackle success rate in that game, which suggests they’ll outscore an Edinburgh team who scored just 24 points against Zebre and 19 in a losing effort against the Sharks in their last two URC ties. 

Prediction: Scarlets by 3. 

Suggested Bet: Scarlets -1.5 at 1.88.

Cardiff v Benetton

Saturday, 18 February – 19:15

Benetton were on a six-match winning streak in all competitions before they were beaten 40-30 by Munster in the last round. In seventh place, they can ill afford to lose to 11th-placed Cardiff.

The Welsh side have lost their last three URC games but they’ve never dropped a home game to Benetton. That’s why they’re the favourites and why I’m siding with them.

Prediction: Cardiff by 3.

Suggested Bet: Benetton +8.5 at 1.83.

Leinster v Dragons

Saturday, 18 February – 21:35

With all due respect to the Dragons, there’s not much to say here. Leinster had no problem crushing Cardiff 38-14 without their boatload of Test stars and they’ll do the same to the Dragons, who’ve won just three games.  

Prediction: Leinster by 22. 

Suggested Bet: Dragons +24.5 at 1.83.