United Rugby Championship Predictions – Round 1

Strap in for a wild ride as the great oval ball odyssey that is the United Rugby Championship gets underway on Friday, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

The cross-hemisphere competition has changed the landscape of club rugby and captured the imagination of fans in South Africa, Ireland, Wales, Scotland, Italy and beyond since its inception in 2021. The fourth edition promises to be another superb spectacle and if the first three instalments have taught us anything, it’s to expect the unexpected.

Despite three successive semi-final exits, Leinster are once again the overwhelming favourites to win the title at 1.62 outright, followed by fellow Irish giants Munster and the Bulls at 6.50 each.

Inaugural champions the Stormers are fourth at 11.00 with defending champions the Glasgow Warriors fifth at 15.00, followed by the Sharks and Ulster at 19.00 each, while the Lions are 11th with outright odds of 81.00.

Due to a request from SA Rugby, the South African derbies that were originally scheduled to take place on Saturday have been postponed to next year to avoid a clash with the Currie Cup final, so the local sides will only kick off their campaigns next weekend.

However, there are still plenty of quality clashes to be excited about. Here’s how we see things playing out…

Edinburgh v Leinster

Friday, 20 September – 20:35

Sean Everitt’s first season at the helm of Edinburgh last year was an improvement on the previous campaign as he took the Scottish club from 12th to 10th and the goal this time around will be to make the top eight.

He has a talented squad to work with, one whose fundamentals were on point but whose wings were clipped. Everitt allowed for such limited enterprise on attack that his team had to work their tails off for little reward whereas they have the IP and skills to work smarter, not harder this season if the South African-born coach chooses to do so.

Every URC season has been the same story for star-studded Leinster. The Irish giants march into the semi-finals only to be dumped out each year. Can they finally kick that curse this year? On paper, they’ve only gotten stronger with major acquisitions like Jordie Barrett and RG Snyman, although, the latter is currently injured.  

Leinster have won the last five fixtures between these sides, and they should keep their streak going to start the season on the right note.

Prediction: Leinster by 10.

Suggested Bet: Leinster -8.5 at 1.83.

Cardiff v Zebre

Friday, 20 September – 20:35

One of last season’s biggest disappointments, Cardiff surrendered the Welsh Shield and dropped two places from the previous season as they finished 12th. Thinus de Beer and company were the nearly men of the campaign, picking up 10 losing bonus points, and will want to find a way to get over the line in such close contests this season to improve their fortunes.

Wooden spoonists since the URC’s inception, Zebre could only manage one-win last season, a 20-17 triumph over the Dragons, and they seem destined to remain rooted at the bottom of the log. They have a new coach in Massimo Brunello, the former Italian Under-20s mentor, so perhaps he’ll be able to get more out of the players.

The men from Parma scored a late try to draw this fixture last season, so they’ll fancy their chances, but then, that was at home. Expect Cardiff to get off the mark.

Prediction: Cardiff by 12.

Suggested Bet: Zebre +15.5 at 1.83.

Dragons v Ospreys

Saturday, 21 September – 16:00

The Dragons have been stuck between a rock and a hard place since the inception of the URC. Due to a severe lack of depth, they’ve finished 15th in each of the three seasons and there’s nothing that suggests things will be different this time around. 

The Ospreys had a great 2023-24 season that saw them win the Welsh Shield for a second time and qualify for the playoffs in eighth position, with their campaign coming to an end away to Munster in the quarter-finals.

They only managed three wins on the road, though, so they’ll want to kick their travel blues this year. They haven’t won at Rodney Parade since 2021, so it’s tempting to go with the Dragons. However, my money is on the Ospreys.

Prediction: Ospreys by 3.

Suggested Bet: Dragons +6.5 at 1.84.

Munster v Connacht

Saturday, 21 September – 18:30

As magnificent as Munster were to win the title on the road in 2022-23, they were equally wasteful to squander an ideal scenario to retain their crown after finishing the league phase at the top of the table.

They’ll use the pain of their semi-final exit at the hands of the Glasgow Warriors as fuel in their quest to regain the trophy and have firepower upfront and flash in the backline to make another serious run at the title. They’ve lost one South African in RG Snyman but have added another in Thaakir Abrahams.

Expect more from Connacht this season after they finished 11th last time out. A lack of depth and leaky defence held them back, so they would’ve worked hard on their D and have boosted their squad with the likes of Josh Ioane, Temi Lasisi, Ben Murphy, Piers O’Conor, Adam McBurney and David O’Connor.

The home team came out on top in each of last season’s battles between these Irish clubs and that’ll continue, at least for this game.

Prediction: Munster by 10.

Suggested Bet: Connacht +11.5 at 1.83.

Benetton v Scarlets

Saturday, 21 September – 20:35

Benetton will look to build on a successful 2023-24 season in which they made the top eight before losing 30-23 to the Bulls in the quarter-finals.

With their accurate kicking game, patience and ability to punish the opposition for their mistakes, they should be in the playoff mix again, especially after having bolstered their ranks with the likes of Louis Lynagh and Matt Gallagher, both of whom make the move from the English Premiership to the URC.

After a decent maiden campaign in which they finished 10th and just a single point behind the Welsh Shield-winning Ospreys, the Scarlets regressed to also-rans, finishing 14th and 13th in the next two campaigns. Having lost key trio Wyn Jones, Kieran Hardy and Jonathan Davies, don’t expect much from them this season either. 

Bank on Benetton to get the ball rolling.

Prediction: Benetton by 12.

Suggested Bet: Benetton -8.5 at 1.84.

Ulster v Glasgow Warriors

Saturday, 21 September – 20:45

Ulster endured a tumultuous 2023-24 season in which CEO Jonny Petrie and coach Dan McFarland were axed and they still managed to make the playoffs in sixth position.

Much of that was thanks to their forward pack and Richie Murphy, who picked up the pieces and started the rebuilding phase as interim coach, and with him now elevated to permanent boss, it’s an exciting time for Ulster fans.

They get an opportunity to show they mean business by taking down the defending champions straight out of the gate. Murphy has largely stuck to his guns, his most notable signing being Werner Kok from the Sharks.

Glasgow went from dark horses to undeniable in their shock run to the title last season. South African-born coach Franco Smith has whipped the Warriors into a well-oiled machine with plenty of grit to match their attacking prowess and tactical nous and they should be in the title conversation again.

Having taken the hardest possible route to glory last season by beating the Stormers, Munster and Bulls away from home in the playoffs, they showed they can win on the road, so it might be worth backing them in this one. I do, however, feel Ulster will have their ducks in a row and will come away with the win. 

Prediction: Ulster by 3.

Suggested Bet: Glasgow Warriors +3.5 at 1.83.

Quintin van Jaarsveld

Quintin Van Jaarsveld is a former MDDA-Sanlam SA Local Sports Journalist of the Year and a former three-time Vodacom KwaZulu-Natal Sports Journalist of the Year. Formerly the sports editor and Outstanding Journalist of the Year award winner at The Fever Media Group, deputy editor at eHowzit, editor at SARugby.com and senior staff writer at Rugby365.com, he boasts over 15 years’ experience and is currently a freelance sports writer.