United Rugby Championship Predictions – Round 3

The Gauteng teams are in action on Friday night with the Bulls playing host to Connacht in Pretoria and the Lions colliding with Cardiff at the Arms Park.

Come Saturday, the coastal sides will showcase their skills with the Stormers entertaining Edinburgh in Cape Town and the Sharks doing battle with the Dragons in Newport.

Bulls v Connacht

Friday, 30 September – 18:30

Focus is the key word for the Bulls this week after they nearly squandered a home win against Edinburgh last Saturday.

In control for most of the match after racing into a 10-point lead, lackadaisical defence in the third quarter and soft errors like failing to field a restart, which led to a try, spoke of an early-season lack of focus. Fortunately for them, Morne Steyn saved the day, but more than up-skilling the focus this week will be on staying focused for the full 80 minutes.

Winless Connacht won’t roll over and had success pinning the Stormers in their 22 with clever chips from the base. However, their disciplinary issues extended far beyond Bundee Aki’s red card. They were constantly blown up at the breakdown and they once again coughed up the ball with mediocre handling.

Bank on the Bulls to bag a convincing win.   

Prediction: Bulls by 16. 

Suggested Bet: Connacht +18.5 at 1.82.

Cardiff v Lions

Friday, 30 September – 20:35

Brimming with belief after their 28-27 come-from-behind win over the Ospreys, the Lions will fancy their chances against a Cardiff side coming off a 52-24 loss to the Warriors.

The pride of Johannesburg have always been a team of grit and once they discover their character, as they did in Swansea, they’re a challenge for any side and not a bad shout to pull off another upset.

That said, I expect Cardiff to bounce back. The context of last weekend’s heavy defeat in Glasgow is that it was down to them conceding three tries when they were down to 14 men.

Moreover, they’re very much a home team. They claimed some big scalps in their backyard last season, including that of Leinster, and started this season with a shock win over Munster, so I see them holding off the Lions.

Prediction: Cardiff by 3. 

Suggested Bet: Lions +6.5 at 1.86.

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Ulster v Leinster

Friday, 30 September – 20:35

This fierce Irish derby is always intense and it should be another cracker between the tournament’s early pacesetters. Both teams have collected maximum log points from their first two fixtures, Ulster crushing Connacht (36-10) and the Scarlets (55-39) and Leinster lashing Benetton (42-10) after surviving a scare against Zebre (33-29).

Ulster did the double over their staunch rivals last season, backing up a 20-10 away win with an 18-13 victory at home, so one shouldn’t automatically lean towards Leinster because of their pedigree. Having said that, in a game that could go either way, the visitors have slightly better value.

Prediction: Leinster by 1. 

Suggested Bet: Leinster at 1.95.

Stormers v Edinburgh

Saturday, 01 October – 14:00

For an opening outing, the Stormers had spectacular synergy in their 38-15 win over Connacht. Highlighted by the terrific try finished off by Andre-Hugo Venter, their impressive interplay between the forward and backs will stand them in good stead against a quality Edinburgh team. 

Last season’s Scottish/Italian Shield winners showed, after a slow start at Loftus, that they have the power and desire to dig themselves out of trouble as they came back and nearly snatched it by upping the physicality and winning the scraps.

It’ll be on the Capetonians to match them in the key area the Bulls did not, namely effort, to ensure they don’t gift them turnovers.

The Stormers dominated at scrum time and should have the ascendency again, while the line speed they had on defence to pin Connacht behind the gain line should allow them to thwart the patient Edinburgh attack and help pick up the win.

Prediction: Stormers by 7. 

Suggested Bet: Edinburgh +9.5 at 1.86.

Ospreys v Glasgow Warriors

Saturday, 01 October – 16:05

It was clear in their 28-point trouncing of Cardiff that the Warriors were indeed undercooked in their heavy opening-round loss to Benetton.

Having shaken off the rust in style, they have momentum on their side against an Ospreys team who salvaged a draw with a last-gasp try in Round One and lost to the Lions at home last weekend.

Glasgow showed great killer instinct and with the Ospreys’ substitutes falling as flat as they did, I’m backing the underdog visitors to outlast their hosts.   

Prediction: Glasgow Warriors by 2. 

Suggested Bet: Glasgow Warriors at 2.15.

Munster v Zebre

Saturday, 01 October – 18:05

Munster have endured a nightmare start to the season, dropping both of their matches to underdogs Cardiff and the Dragons on the road. This is the most welcome of homecomings for them.

Zebre, for the second week in a row, nearly came back from the dead to stun the Sharks but like Munster are winless going into this one.

The difference maker in this match will be the rain as it’ll dilute the flashes of brilliance that fuelled the Italians’ fightback efforts. Without that magic, they won’t be able to overcome the power coming their way.   

Prediction: Munster by 6. 

Suggested Bet: Zebre +32.5 at 1.83.

Benetton v Scarlets

Saturday, 01 October – 18:15

After coming up empty away to Leinster, Benetton are back at home where they blew away Glasgow in Round One. The Scarlets were never within reach but also didn’t go away in their try-fest against Ulster. The bottom line, though, was a 55-39 loss at home that left them winless.

Home comforts should be enough for the Italians in another wet-weather game.

Prediction: Benetton by 7.

Suggested Bet: Benetton -3.5 at 1.85.

Dragons v Sharks

Saturday, 01 October – 20:35

The timing of the Sharks’ trip to Newport will make the challenge considerably tougher as the Dragons’ surprise 23-17 win over Munster was their first at home in almost 18 months. It was the type of victory to build a season on as it erased the 44-6 away loss to Edinburgh and was the first home game under Dai Flanagan.  

As good as the Sharks looked to storm into a 28-3 lead and wrap up the bonus point in the first half, they looked equally ordinary in the second and oh so nearly came unstuck against Zebre in Parma.

They’ll take confidence from the fact that they started their campaign with a full house but will know their defence needs to drastically improve after they missed 20 tackles.

This will be a completely different game, though, as it – as the earlier games – is set to be played in the rain. That in itself will aid the Durbanites’ leaky defence.

Discipline is the key to victory for the visitors. The Dragons have scored just a solitary try, their source of points being newly-recruited flyhalf JJ Hanrahan, who’s a sharpshooter off the tee.

The Sharks have the superior pack and that should prove decisive in the wet conditions if they stay disciplined.

Prediction: Sharks by 3. 

Suggested Bet: Dragons +7.5 at 1.5.