United Rugby Championship Predictions – Round 1

The super-charged second edition of the United Rugby Championship blasts off this weekend with Saturday’s Jukskei derby in Johannesburg headlining the opening-round fixtures, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

We go again.

After a blockbuster inaugural season that saw the Stormers edge, the Bulls in an all-South African rugby final, anticipation and excitement levels are through the roof for the second act.

The cross hemisphere competition gets underway with Benetton hosting the Glasgow Warriors on Friday.

The clash between the Lions and the Bulls is the main attraction of an action-packed Saturday, which includes Zebre Parma playing Leinster, Cardiff confronting Munster, Scarlets tackling the Ospreys, Edinburgh entertaining the Dragons, and Ulster colliding with Connacht.

The defending-champion Stormers, and fellow South African coastal franchise the Sharks, have a bye.

Europe’s perennial powerhouse team Leinster are the overwhelming favourites to take out the title at 1.57 outright, followed by fellow Irish giants Munster at 8.00.

The Stormers and Sharks are expected to lead the local charge at 10.00, Ulster carry odds of 11.00 followed by the Bulls at 13.00. The Lions are expected to struggle again this season and have odds of 101.00.

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Benetton v Glasgow Warriors

Friday, 16 September – 18:30

The season kicks off with what should be a tightly-contested clash as this rivalry has been just that. They split last season’s games, with the home team coming up trumps on each occasion, while the Warriors have a 4-3 edge in the last seven meetings.

The major difference here is that Glasgow’s ushering in a new era under Franco Smith. The South African mastermind stepped down as coach of the Italian national side to take over from Danny Wilson, who failed to deliver the Scottish/Italian Shield.

He’ll bring with him fresh ideas and has in-depth knowledge of Benetton’s Test stars, a combination that should see his tenure get off to a winning start in the Treviso rain.

Prediction: Glasgow Warriors by 7.

Suggested Bet: Glasgow Warriors -5.5 at 1.84.

Zebre Parma v Leinster

Saturday, 17 September – 14:00

As if being no-hopers isn’t bad enough, Zebre have no luck either, drawing the toughest possible opposition first up. Last season’s wooden spoonists have picked up several new players in the hopes of a more fruitful campaign, including South African imports like Kobus van Wyk, Richard Kriel, and MJ Pelser.

That should help them possibly overcome a couple of lower-level teams but it won’t change what’ll be a bonus-point triumph for the visiting title favourites. Rain will shave 15-odd points off the scoreline, so I like Zebre on the plus.

Prediction: Leinster by 24.

Suggested Bet: Zebre +27.5 at 1.84.

Lions v Bulls

Saturday, 17 September – 16:05

The Lions have long been stuck in a loop of having to start from scratch each season and this year’s no different. They’ve lost both of their 2021-22 MVPs, Vincent Tshituka and Burger Odendaal, plus rising stars like Wandisile Simelane and Carlu Sadie to name a few.

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The players they’ve brought in are solid rather than spectacular and the pride of Johannesburg look destined to prop up the South African Shield again. As a fresh start, this derby at home is extremely important for them to make a statement that they’ve come to play this year, and as such, they’ll throw everything at their vaunted neighbours.

Hoping to go one better this year, the Bulls have significantly greater depth, which they’ve bolstered further with the likes of Simelane, Sbu Nkosi, and Marco van Staden. Last year’s runners-up have clear structures in place, whereas the Lions have been erratic under Ivan van Rooyen, and with a host of players who could/should have been part of the Springbok squad available to them, bank on the Bulls to secure a rather solid win.

Prediction: Bulls by 10.

Suggested Bet: Bulls -9.5 at 1.84.

Cardiff v Munster

Saturday, 17 September – 16:05

While they weren’t expected to reach the playoffs, Cardiff underperformed last season, finishing 14th. The signings of star duo Taulupe Faletau and Liam Williams are huge for them and although they’ll have home ground advantage, they haven’t won this fixture since 2018.

Munster kick-off a new era with Graham Rowntree taking the reins from Johann van Graan. With a stellar squad that have them instilled as second-favourites to go all the way, Munster are on a mission this season.

After falling out of the top four on the final weekend and being knocked out by Ulster away last season, the focus will be their slogan this year and that single-mindedness will see them conquer Cardiff.

Prediction: Munster by 11.

Suggested Bet: Munster -6.5 at 1.84.

Scarlets v Ospreys

Saturday, 17 September – 18:15

The fierce rivals get right back to it after their season-long battle saw the Ospreys edge the Scarlets to the Welsh Shield honours and European Champions Cup berth that comes with it by a single point.

They’ve only made one key signing each, the Scarlets snapping up All Blacks back-rower Vaea Fifita and Australian-born flyhalf Jack Walsh joining the Ospreys from Exeter.

They were 1-1 last season, however, the Scarlets have won the last six games between the two at home, dating back to 2016. I’m happy to back that streak. 

Prediction: Scarlets by 3.

Suggested Bet: Ospreys +4.5 at 1.86.

Edinburgh v Dragons

Saturday, 17 September – 20:35

With a dreadful 15th-place finish last season, the Dragons have made sweeping changes. They have a new name – moving from Dragons Rugby to Dragons RFC – a new badge, modified team colours, and a slew of exciting new signings including flyhalf JJ Hanrahan, who joins from Clermont and has had two stints at Munster

Edinburgh, who finished the regular season in seventh position, have strengthened their ranks with the likes of English-born lock Sam Skinner and South African-born speedster Wes Goosen, who made the jump from Super Rugby, where he featured for the Hurricanes since 2016.

With their powerful pack and solid backline, Edinburgh should retain the Scottish/Italian Shield and qualify for the playoffs again, a journey that starts with overpowering the Dragons.   

Prediction: Edinburgh by 12.

Suggested Bet: Dragons +14.5 at 1.86.

Ulster v Connacht

Saturday, 17 September – 20:35

The first Irish derby of the season should finish the opening round on a high. Ulster were one play away from reaching the inaugural final, Dan McFarland’s men having their dreams dashed by Manie Libbok’s clutch conversion of Warrick Gelant’s last-gasp try.

Connacht, predictably, failed to reach the playoffs and finished last in the Irish Shield. As the smallest of the Irish regions, they’re perennial underdogs and while I expect Ulster to be too strong for them at home, there is a chance Connacht can cause the upset.

They’ve done it six of the last 10 times they’ve played the men from Belfast, including last season when they romped to a 36-11 win before Ulster gained revenge with a 32-12 victory in the return fixture. 

Prediction: Ulster by 10.

Suggested Bet: Connacht +11.5 at 1.82.

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