26 June 2019, by: Quintin van Jaarsveld

SUPER RUGBY PREDICTIONS – SEMI-FINALS 

The stage is set for two contrastingly compelling Super Rugby semi-final showdowns on Saturday.

The battle in Buenos Aires is expected to be a fierce arm-wrestle as the Jaguares make their maiden semi-final appearance against the Brumbies, while the defending-champion Crusaders and Hurricanes are set to thrill in a fast-paced New Zealand derby in Christchurch.

BET: Super Rugby Semi-finals

Something has to give when the two form teams of the competition collide. The South African Conference-winning Jaguares have won six in a row, while the Australian Conference-clinching Brumbies are on a seven-match winning streak, their most successful stretch since 2004/5.

The Jaguares are a team who grow an extra arm and a leg at home and they don’t come much bigger than a first-ever home semi-final. The Argentinians have won 10 of their last 12 games on the bounce in Buenos Aires, including the last five – their longest-ever home winning streak. The layout of the stadium is such that it’s an intimidating battleground for opposing teams and local fans will be out in full force for this historic fixture.

So much will depend on the first half. It’ll be imperative for the Brumbies to get off to a start strong and silence the usually raucous crowd if they are to spoil the Argentinians’ party. This, it just so happens, has been the Brumbies’ speciality this season; they’ve scored 42 first-half tries, more than any other team and 15 more than the Jaguares.

They have the forwards-driven, power-based style to cause the Jaguares problems, too, especially when it comes to their near-
unstoppable driving maul, which has been their biggest source of tries this season.

The Jaguares have an edge over just about every team they come up against in terms of depth and continuity. Every single member of their squad knows exactly what’s required of him in his specific role, giving them a lethal synergy on attack and bonding trust on defence, which will be too much for the Brumbies to overcome.

Prediction: Jaguares by 5. (Suggested BET – Jaguares to win by 1-12 points)

The tournament’s two top teams go toe-to-toe for a place in the final. While the Crusaders finished at the top of the log and secured the all-important home ground advantage in the play-offs, it’s the Hurricanes who have actually recorded the most wins this season with 12 – one more than the ‘Saders and Jaguares.

When it comes to head-to-head encounters, the Crusaders have had the Hurricanes’ number in recent years, winning the last four on the trot, including this year’s round-robin clashes commandingly – triumphing 38-22 at home in Round Two and 32-8 in Wellington in Round Seven.

However, if there’s one team who could match the class of the Crusaders from one to 23 and dethrone the dominant defending champions in a knockout game, it’s the Hurricanes, who were the last team to defeat them in Christchurch back in Round 17 in 2016. The ‘Saders have since gone on a 29-game home unbeaten run.

The key to victory for the ‘Canes is a complete team performance. That has been their Achilles’ Heel against the Crusaders. Brilliant individual performances from the likes of Beauden Barrett, TJ Perenara and Ardie Savea are enough for the ‘Canes to sink most sides but don’t cut it against the Crusaders, who function fluidly as a team as opposed to a talented group of individuals.

I expect a much closer contest than their two previous meetings this season given the tense, knockout nature of the clash,
but the result will be the same.

If you were to back an underdog this weekend, the Chiefs would be a good choice, although the Argentinians will probably pip it.

Prediction: Crusaders by nine. (Suggested BET – Crusaders -7.5)

BET: Super Rugby 2019