26 February 2020, by: Quintin van Jaarsveld

Super Rugby Predictions – Round 5

The Sharks will be keen to end their successful Australasian sojourn on a high when they take on the Reds on Saturday, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

Round Five of Super Rugby kicks off from a South African perspective with the Lions tackling the winless Waratahs to start their tour on Friday.

Joining the Sharks in action on Saturday, the unbeaten Stormers will seek to consolidate their place at the top of the log when they battle the Blues at Newlands before the Bulls will look to finally open their account when they welcome the Jaguares to Loftus Versfeld.

Here’s how we see things playing out in Round Five:ALSO READ: SA SUPER RUGBY TEAM OF THE WEEK – ROUND 4

ALSO READ: UNFORGETTABLE SUPER RUGBY MOMEMTS – 25 YEARS The Highlanders (0.16) will feel they had a tough draw to kick-off their campaign, first having a bye in the opening round and then running into the Sharks and Crusaders. They’ll thus see this more favourable match-up as an opportunity to reset and ‘start’ things right. After allowing the Sharks to storm the gates, we feel the Highlanders will be more alert, won’t allow the Rebels (4.25) to start fast and will make their home ground advantage count this time around, something they’ve done all four times they’ve hosted the men from Melbourne.Prediction: Highlanders by 9.

Total Points scored: 45

Suggested BET: Highlanders -6.5 at 0.40

BET: SUPER RUGBYThe Lions (1.40) could not have asked for a better lay-up (to use a basketball phrase) to start their Australasian tour than a meeting with the Waratahs (0.65), who’ve been listless and languish at the bottom of the log without a single point from their three games. They were no match for the Crusaders (43-25) or Rebels (24-10) on the road and were blown away 32-12 by the Blues in Newcastle, their fourth loss on home soil going back to last year.

The Lions have won the last five against the ‘Tahs, including a 29-0 shutout the last time they met in Sydney in 2018. The pride of Johannesburg recovered from their heavy defeat to the Jaguares in the first round with a 27-20 win over the Reds and, more impressively, almost upset the Stormers last time out. They would’ve felt they should’ve won that game and would still be kicking themselves that they leaked that decisive try at the death.

Last week’s bye didn’t do them any favours as they would’ve benefitted more from the victories in defeat – the momentum and confidence they’d gained from the spirited showing against the Stormers. Conversely, their bye last week came at the perfect time for the ‘Tahs, offering them an opportunity to reassess and start fresh. That gives the hosts an edge they desperately need, one we suspect will nudge them over the line.Prediction: Waratahs by 1.

Total Points scored: 49

Suggested BET: Waratahs to win at 0.65

BET: SUPER RUGBYWhere to from here for the Sunwolves (16.75) after their 64-5 skinning by the Reds last weekend? It’ll be one-way traffic, no doubt about it, but how big of a blowout will it be? No rain is forecast for Napier, so there goes that safety net for the Sunwolves. They should come out with more fire in an attempt to restore a measure of pride, but the margin will largely come down to selection on the ‘Canes’ (0.01) part. The Wellington outfit had a bye last week, so it’ll be interesting to see whether they still decide to rest key players. At the very least, they’ll win by 20, but they could double that if they go with a full-strength side.Prediction: Hurricanes by 30.

Total Points scored: 48

Suggested BET: Hurricanes -27.5 at 0.45

BET: SUPER RUGBYWe mentioned previously that the Reds (0.95) weren’t far off from where they wanted to be after pushing the Brumbies (27-24) and Lions (27-20) close and scaring the Jaguares (43-27) before letting a healthy lead slip. Last weekend, everything clicked. Sure, the Sunwolves were woeful, but the Reds played some terrific rugby to rack up their biggest-ever win (64-5). The victory came at a perfect time for them and makes Saturday’s showdown much more interesting.

Scrumhalf Tate McDermott has been the key man for the young Reds so far. He looks like a Wallaby in the making and is an attacking spark as playmaker and sniper around the fringes. He’s scored four tries and provided the assist for four more, an eight-try involvement that’s unmatched this year. Pairing James O’Connor with him last week was the missing piece of the puzzle, but it’s McDermott who the Sharks (0.90) will have to target.

The Sharks’ set-pieces haven’t been as strong as they should be, but both their scrum and lineout functioned better in the convincing 36-24 victory over the Rebels last weekend. The Durban side have dazzled with their enterprising play, but a tighter, more direct approach is their best course of action in Brisbane.

We expect them to employ this strategy to deny the hosts front foot ball and soften them up. It’s a big ask from the forwards in the final match on tour, but with a real opportunity to turn a good tour into a great one, we believe they’ll be up for it.Prediction: Sharks by 5.

Total Points scored: 51

Suggested BET: Sharks to win at 0.90

BET: SUPER RUGBYThe last-gasp win over the Bulls would’ve bolstered the Blues’ (3.00) belief that they can conquer the Stormers (0.30) in Cape Town, but the challenge remains Table Mountain-esque in scale. The wet conditions at Loftus diluted the Aucklanders’ attacking potency and with no rain expected on Saturday, they’ll pose more questions with ball-in-hand this weekend.

The Stormers are the last remaining undefeated team and largely have their resolute defence to thank for that. Having remarkably only conceded seven points in their three home games, they’re well equipped to contain the Blues. The log leaders still need to find their rhythm on attack, and breaching the Blues’ line won’t be easy. They tend to concede penalties, however, which the Stormers could exploit to maul through them rather than find ways around them.

The visitors’ victory at Loftus ought to have eliminated the possibility of complacency on the part of the Stormers. They’ll have to work for it, but the Stormers should seal a fifth straight win by a comfortable margin.Prediction: Stormers by 11.

Total Points scored: 53

Suggested BET: Stormers -3.5 at 0.40

BET: SUPER RUGBYLike the Lions against the Stormers a fortnight ago, the Bulls will be wondering how they let victory slip against the Blues at the death. There’s a possibility that rain could help their cause again this weekend, but even so, it’s tough seeing them beating the men from Buenos Aires, especially given the visitors will welcome back a string of star players who were rested in the loss to the Stormers.

Winless after three games, the Bulls are stuck between a rock and a hard place with no clear path out of their predicament. They’re clinging to the tactical-kicking gameplan that won the franchise three championships between 2007 and 2010 but they don’t have the physical pack to pull it off. The Jaguares are strong across the board and they’re bound to compound the Bulls’ woes, especially if they keep the penalty count down.Prediction: Jaguares by 12.

Total Points scored: 36

Suggested BET: Jaguares to win at 0.60

BET: SUPER RUGBY

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