19 February 2020, by: Quintin van Jaarsveld

Super Rugby Predictions – Round 4

A feast of Super Rugby action awaits on Saturday with no less than six showdowns set to keep fans on the edge of their seats, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

The fourth round, however, kicks off with a New Zealand derby on Friday, with the Crusaders playing host to the Highlanders.

The pick of the action on Super Saturday is the top-of-the-South African Conference clash between the Stormers and the Jaguares at Newlands, with the Cape Town team currently enjoying a three-point lead over the Argentine side.

With compelling contests across the board, here’s how we see things playing out in Round Four:

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The Highlanders (8.00) showed great grit to snatch a late win over the Brumbies in Canberra last weekend, but grit alone won’t be enough against the Crusaders (0.07), who bounced back from their loss to the Chiefs with an emphatic away win over the Blues and are back at their fortress for this one. Whereas they needed to pick up the pace Down Under, the Highlanders have to slow down the tempo and make it a dog fight against the ‘Saders. Like the Blues, however, they – based on the Sharks game – don’t have the defensive chops to contain the dangerous defending champions, so we see the ‘Saders coasting to victory.

Prediction: Crusaders by 14.

Total Points scored: 58

Suggested BET: Crusaders to win by 13 or more at 0.60

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The Rebels (1.40) played solid wet-weather rugby to sink the ‘Tahs and the timely first win of the season have bolstered the men from Melbourne’s odds against the Sharks (0.65). So, too, does the number of injuries the Sharks suffered just before and during the clash against the ‘Canes, which led to their first loss of the season.

Had the Durbanites been at full-strength, one could’ve comfortably gone with them. Nevertheless, Curwin Bosch will be back and with time to adapt to the injury disruptions, they’ll be a bit more settled and their complete brand of rugby, with red-hot No.8 Sikhumbuzo Notshe as the link, should trouble the hosts’ suspect defence enough to secure them another tour triumph.

Prediction: Sharks by 5.

Total Points scored: 52

Suggested BET: Sharks to win at 0.65

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How good are the Brumbies (5.75) really? Were they exposed in the last-gasp loss to the Highlanders last week? This contest between the table-topping Chiefs (0.12) and the men from Canberra, currently third, will give a good indication of whether the Brumbies are title contenders or pretenders. Warren Gatland’s charges have hit the ground running and are one of only two remaining unbeaten teams along with the Stormers.

They have the Brumbies beat upfront and in the backline, and if that’s not enough, history has shown the home team usually come out on top in this rivalry, with only one of the last 12 meetings being won by the visitors – the Chiefs winning that one 48-23 in 2016. We’re backing the Chiefs to extend their streak with a two-score win.

Prediction: Chiefs by 11.

Total Points scored: 51

Suggested BET: Chiefs -6.5 at 0.40

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The big question here is, how much do the Reds (0.10) have in the tank after travelling halfway across the world, from Johannesburg to Buenos Aires and back to Brisbane? Brad Thorn’s men have been the unluckiest team in the 2020 tournament thus far, pushing the Brumbies (27-24), Lions (27-20) and Jaguares (43-27) to their limits only to fall short in the end. It does, however, point to the inexperience of the young squad, who played like superstars last week as they shot into a 24-7 lead against last year’s losing finalists before capitulation badly in the second half. Still, the energy from their home fans should drive them to a convincing victory against a side (6.25) who leaked 70 points in their two games thus far.

Prediction: Reds by 13.

Total Points scored: 57

Suggested BET: Reds to win by 13 or more at 0.75

BET: SUPER RUGBY

A crunch clash between the pace-setters in the South African Conference, both teams will approach this like a Test match, knowing whoever emerges victorious will take early control of the division and send a clear message to the other top title contenders. The Stormers’ (0.45) great escape against the Lions can and should be viewed in two ways – it underlined the Capetonians’ struggles to capitalise on opportunities yet it also revealed their championship-level character to pull the game out of the fire.

The Jaguares (2.05) will undoubtedly be their toughest challenge to date. They staged a terrific comeback against the Reds and, unlike the Lions, saw it through to win handsomely in the end, so they’ll be a threat for the full 80 minutes and won’t let the Stormers off the hook if they are in the ascendency down the stretch. The visitors’ pack weigh up well against the Stormers, which will make for a bruising battle, but the hosts should have the edge in the set-pieces.

This is the time for the Stormers’ backs to come to the party and for Damian Willemse to find his radar off the tree. Coach John Dobson has said impressive loose forward Jaco Coetzee and star scrumhalf Herschel Jantjies should be back from injury and they’ll serve as a massive double boost. In what’s set to be a war of attrition, the hosts should outlast the Argentinians.

Prediction: Stormers by 3.

Total Points scored: 53

Suggested BET: Stormers to win by 1-12 points at 1.50

BET: SUPER RUGBY

We’re only in Round Four and this is already a must-win for the Bulls (1.10) if they hope to make a significant splash this season. Lose this one, at home, to go 0-3, and they’ll effectively be confirmed as also-rans. One of just three winless teams, the return of Morné Steyn hasn’t yielded the results Pote Human had envisioned. The 13-0 loss to the Stormers was cringe-worthy as the Springbok stalwart bumbled in his attempt to get his backline away.

This match-up, however, suits Steyn’s tactical style. Engaging in a fast-paced firefight against a New Zealand side is never a good idea. At altitude, the Bulls will look to wear out the visitors upfront and hope to capitalise in the final quarter. Recent history shows that the men from Pretoria do well against the Blues (0.80), winning four of the last five and drawing the other 22-all in Auckland last year. At home and fuelled by desperation, we’re backing the Bulls to edge it.

Prediction: Bulls by 4.

Total Points scored: 40

Suggested BET: Bulls to win at 1.10

BET: SUPER RUGBY

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