05 February 2020, by: Quintin van Jaarsveld

Super Rugby Predictions – Round 2

The second round of this year’s Super Rugby tournament features a triple-header of massive conference clashes, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

The prospective strongest sides in both the Australian and New Zealand Conference will go head-to-head, while the Stormers and Bulls will renew their storied rivalry at Newlands on Saturday.

Also on Saturday, which is stacked with five fascinating fixtures, the Lions will look to exorcise the demons of their opening-round drubbing in Buenos Aires when they welcome the Reds to Ellis Park.

Kicking off the action on Friday morning (South African time) is the Sharks, who’ll be hell-bent on parlaying their win over the Bulls into a victory in their Australasian tour-opener against the Highlanders, the last team to kick-off their 2020 campaign.

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While it wasn’t aesthetically pleasing, the 23-15 home win over the Bulls was massive for the Sharks. Starting the Sean Everitt era with a win and snapping a nine-match losing streak against the Pretoria side would’ve given them belief that they can kick-off their tour with a win. Dunedin is also as happy a New Zealand hunting ground as it gets for the Sharks (2.25), with the Durban side having won five of their 11 games there, including the last clash (15-14) in 2016.

The problem is, they’re running into a fresh and solid Highlanders (0.40) side who sat out the opening round. If the Sharks can rectify their set-piece problems, they’re in with a shot. However, considering that they’ll be restricted to just one training session due to the travelling, as per Everitt, that shot is a long one.

Prediction: Highlanders by 11.

Suggested BET: Highlanders -6.5 at 0.90

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The Brumbies (0.35) and Rebels (2.55) finished one and two in the Australian Conference in 2019 and are set to duke it out for the division trophy again this year. The Brumbies got a real test in the spirited Reds and came through it for the better. The hard-fought 27-24 win was perfect preparation for this key clash and makes them sizeable favourites at home against a Rebels team reeling from a shock 36-27 loss to the Sunwolves.

The men from Melbourne have much to atone for, and big derbies are known to bring out the best in teams. They’d be buoyed by the fact that they did the double over the Canberra side last year, but they simply have too much ground to make up in the space of a week to challenge the Brumbies the way the Reds did.

Prediction: Brumbies by 12.

Suggested BET: Brumbies -7.5 at 0.90

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This should be an absolute cracker – a titanic clash of what’s widely regarded as this year’s two top New Zealand teams and two of the strongest title contenders. The defending-champion Crusaders (0.65) sent a clear message to title hopefuls at the expense of the Waratahs (43-25) to kick-off their campaign, while the Chiefs (1.40) weren’t as convincing as they were expected to be against the Blues.

What their first game under Warren Gatland did reveal was a championship-calibre character to avoid defeat (37-29) and the impact the returning Aaron Cruden will have on the team. If you’re going to bet against the Saders, this is one of the games to do it. That said, playing the Chiefs at home this early, rather than later when they’ve found their groove, favours the settled Saders, and the hosts are likely to be without injured All Blacks trio Damian McKenzie, Angus Ta’avao and Nepo Laulala.

Prediction: Crusaders by 6.

Suggested BET: Crusaders to win 0.65

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The toughest call of the round. The Blues (0.80) looked quite good early on against the Chiefs and threatened a big upset (before going down 37-29), but they did the same in last year’s season-opener, pushing the Crusaders to the limit only to be pipped 24-22. The Waratahs (1.10), however, were worse than anticipated and condemned to a crushing 43-25 defeat by the Saders.

Their saving grace could be having home ground advantage this weekend, not just for obvious reasons, but also because the Blues didn’t win a single game on the road in 2019. They did, however, prevail on their two previous visits (40-33 in 2017 and 24-21 in 2018) to the region and last year’s 32-29 win was their fourth in a row over the Tahs, which is a big reason why they’re instilled as favourites. Given how tight it is, the Tahs come at a good price at home.

Prediction: Waratahs by 1.

Suggested BET: Waratahs to win at 1.10

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The Reds (2.10) showed a lot in their narrow loss to the Brumbies (27-24), which is more than you can say for the Lions (0.40), who floundered their way to a 38-8 hiding in Buenos Aires. The sides are in similar stages of development, both largely in their second season as a squad, so the mental battle will be as important as the physical.

New Lions captain Elton Jantjies had one of those days against the Jaguares, and while he’s far from solely to blame for the drubbing, it’s well known that if he plays well, the Lions fire and vice versa. The Springbok veteran has the experience to bounce back and with rain forecast, much will rest on his shoulders. We see Jantjies stepping up and the energy of the first home game getting the Lions over the line.

Prediction: Lions by 6.

Suggested BET: Lions -5.5 at 0.85

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The North-South derby is always a fiercely contested clash of skill and will and the latest chapter in South African rugby’s greatest domestic rivalry should be no different. Both teams are coming off brutal battles, but it’s the Stormers (0.25) who are worse off, losing Siya Kolisi and Bongi Mbonambi in the 27-0 shut out of the Hurricanes.

The star duo’s absence increases the Bulls’ (3.55) chances of springing an upset, but the Cape franchise still have a host of other World Cup-winning Springboks to outmuscle the visitors. Worryingly for the Bulls, they were allowed to play their tactical-kicking game in Durban and still came up short (23-15). They also failed to capitalise on their set-piece dominance. They’re unlikely to have either of those luxuries at Newlands and look set to bend the knee to the impressive Stormers.

Prediction: Stormers by 10.

Suggested BET: Stormers -9.5 at 0.85

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Two teams who made completely contrasting starts to the season, the Jaguares (0.50) running riot against the Lions (38-8) and the Hurricanes (1.90) humiliatingly blanked by the Stormers (27-0). Based on last weekend, the Jaguares are the obvious pick, and while we expect them to triumph, the Canes are a much better side than they showed at Newlands. They’ll be seeking redemption and should push the Jaguares close. That said, the travel bogey and brutal Cape Town clash will take its toll and the Argentinians have the pack to rub salt in the visitors’ wounds.

Prediction: Jaguares by 7.

Suggested BET: Jaguares -4.5 at 0.85

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