29 January 2020, by: Quintin van Jaarsveld

Super Rugby Predictions – Round 1

The Super Rugby rocket ship will once again take off with much excitement and intrigue on Friday, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

The 25th edition of the game-changing tournament is all about history. It’s about celebrating the legacy of the first official international domestic competition. It’s about closing a chapter, as this year’s milestone tournament will be the last under the 15-team conference system, with the sun setting on the Sunwolves at the end of the season. And it’s about making history. Can the Crusaders become the first team to pull off an unprecedented four-peat? Will former winners reach the mountain top again, or will new champions rise?

Derbies are the order of the day on Friday; the action starts in Auckland, where the Blues host the Chiefs before the Brumbies take on the Reds in Canberra and the Sharks battle the Bulls in Durban. Saturday sees the Sunwolves meet the Melbourne Rebels, the Crusaders collide with the Waratahs, the Stormers host the Hurricanes and the Jaguares tackle the Lions.

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The Blues (1.40) have an abysmal record against New Zealand opposition. The Chiefs (0.65) have won eight of the last 10 derbies but the Blues have the bragging rights going into the tournament opener after a shock 23-8 win in their last meeting, also in Auckland. They made the buy of the off-season, landing Beauden Barrett, but the All Blacks superstar will miss the opening rounds of the tournament. The Chiefs, in turn, have acquired the services of Warren Gatland following his highly successful 12-year tenure as Wales coach, and have welcomed back key figures like Damian McKenzie and Aaron Cruden, elevating them to true title contenders. We can’t see the Gatland era kicking off in any other way than a win.

Prediction: Chiefs by 7.

Total points scored: 59

Suggested BET: Chiefs to win by 1-12 points at 1.75

BET: SUPER RUGBY

The Brumbies (0.35) won the Australian Conference last year and look set to do the same this season. The Reds (2.55), meanwhile, were the weakest of the Australian franchises and finished 14th overall. The young Reds will be better for the experience they gained despite the results not going their way (6-10 win-loss record) in 2019 and have bolstered their ranks with Wallabies duo James O’Connor and Henry Speight. That said, the Brumbies are the more mature and balanced team and should register a comfortable win at home.

Prediction: Brumbies by 12.

Total points scored: 46.

Suggested BET: Brumbies -7.5 at 0.95

BET: SUPER RUGBY

An early litmus test for the new-look Sharks (0.50). As the only fixture before their Australasian tour, they’ll be fuelled with an anxious urgency to get the season off to a winning start. They’ll be desperate to turn around their dreadful home record in recent years as well. They won just three of their eight games at Kings Park last season and have dropped four straight in Durban against the Bulls (1.80). All the pressure will, therefore, be on them.

Early-season matches in Durban are notoriously ugly affairs due to the humidity, and with thunderstorms forecast during the course of the day, the ball will be that much more difficult to handle. Wet conditions and a slippery ball would favour the visitors as it would dilute the potency of the Sharks’ Springbok-laden backline and play into seasoned tactical general Morne Steyn’s strengths. We’re backing the Bulls, as underdogs, to edge a low-scoring game.

Prediction: Bulls by two.

Total points scored: 40.

Suggested BET: Bulls to win at 1.80

BET: SUPER RUGBY

The Sunwolves (6.25) will be determined to make the most of their final season and a home game to kick-off things off will bolster their hope. They’ve always played with passion and heart but have been rooted at the bottom of the table since their arrival because of a lack of vision, identity and depth. Expect to see these pros and cons in motion against one of Australia’s top two teams. After flirting with a playoff appearance for several seasons, the Rebels (0.10) will want nothing more than to claim a full five log points to kick-start their 2020 surge and they should do just that.

Prediction: Melbourne Rebels by 14.

Total points scored: 56.

Suggested BET: Rebels to win by 13+ at 0.60

BET: SUPER RUGBY

The Crusaders (0.08) at home should be a given, and we’re certainly tipping them to come up trumps, but there are a few factors to consider before placing a bet. Firstly, the Waratahs (7.00) have long been the Saders’ bogey team; they famously pipped them at the death in the 2014 final (33-32) to clinch their first title, beat them convincingly (33-22) the following year and handed them the first of just two losses (20-12) last year. Secondly, the match is being played in Nelson, not in the Saders’ Christchurch fortress, plus the defending champions have lost a host of key players. The Tahs, who’ve lost big names themselves, could hang tough initially, but ultimately, they’ll be outclassed.

Prediction: Crusaders by 15.

Total points scored: 51.

Suggested BET: Crusaders by 13+ at 0.50

BET: SUPER RUGBY

Season openers don’t come much tougher than a clash against the Canes. Fortunately for the Stormers (0.75), the contest is in Cape Town, where they’ve won seven of the 10 ties between the teams, including a 19-18 victory in the last encounter back in 2014. Saturday’s showdown is set to be tight and tense as well.

The star-studded Stormers know that they have their best chance yet of capturing their maiden title this year, and they’ll want to make a statement with a win over the men from Wellington. Brimming with World Cup winners, the hosts have the pack to impose their will on the visitors and control the tempo of the match.

As a first-round match, gaps will be there to exploit on either side and the advantage here goes to the Canes (1.20) and their lethal backs and world-class finishing. Discipline and goal-kicking could be the difference, and we suspect the underdog Stormers will have a slight edge in both departments. A lot rides on the availability of Pieter-Steph du Toit; if the World Player of the Year is cleared from his injury niggle, we have the hosts eking out the win.

Prediction: Stormers by two.

Total points scored: 44.

Suggested BET: Stormers to win by 1.80

Value BET: HT/FT – Hurricanes/Stormers at 5.00

BET: SUPER RUGBY

After three fruitless excursions, the Lions (3.75) broke their Buenos Aires duck last year. The 25-16 win was very much a surprise but they backed it up with a 47-39 triumph in the return fixture in Johannesburg. The Jaguares (0.22) grew stronger as the season progressed and matured into a monster en route to reaching their first final. They look the business yet again and, crucially, the players have had time to recover after being played into the dirt at domestic and international level last year. A fast start will give the visitors a shot, but a refreshed Jaguares side should outmuscle the leaner Lions in front of their passionate home crowd.

Prediction: Jaguares by 11.

Total points scored: 51.

Suggested BET: Jaguares by 1-12 points at 1.70

Value BET: Lions to win at 3.75

BET: SUPER RUGBY

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