Six Nations Predictions 2025 – Round 5

Topping the table on 16 points, Les Bleus have the inside track following their championship-altering 47-22 triumph over double-defending champions Ireland last weekend.

Also in the title hunt are England, who are second on 15, Ireland, who are third on 14 and fourth-placed Scotland, who are on 11 points.

The final round of matches will see Italy host Ireland in Rome and Wales welcome England to Cardiff before France and Scotland wrap things up at the Stade de France.

France:

Log leaders France have several routes to claiming the championship, depending on their result against Scotland and how England and Ireland perform in their respective matches.

Outright Victory: France will win the championship if they defeat Scotland with a bonus point (BP), taking them to 21 points.

Win Without a BP: France can still secure the title with a victory (no BP) if England either wins without a BP, draws (with or without a BP), or loses (with or without a BP), keeping France on 20 points.

Draw Scenarios: A draw with a BP against Scotland will still secure the title if England and Ireland do not surpass them in points.

Losing and Bonus Points: If France lose but secure two BPs, they can still win if England and Ireland both lose without bonus points.

Points Difference: If France finish level on points with England or Ireland, their title chances depend on superior points difference, making every scoreline crucial.

England:

England’s path to the title hinges on their performance against Wales and the outcome of France’s match.

Outright Victory: England will win the championship if they beat Wales with a BP and France either draw or lose to Scotland. This would put them on 20 points.

Win Without a BP: If England win without a BP and France fail to win, England can claim the title with 19 points.

Draw or Close Loss: England can still win the championship if they draw with a BP or lose with two BPs, provided France and Ireland both lose their matches.

Points Difference: If England and France finish level on points, England must surpass France on points difference to win.

Ireland

Though slightly behind, Ireland still have a chance to claim the title if results go their way.

Outright Victory: Ireland will win the championship if they beat Italy with a BP and both France and England fail to win their matches.

Win Without a BP: If Ireland win without a BP and both France and England lose, Ireland can take the title with 18 points.

Draw or Close Loss: If Ireland draw with a BP or lose with two BPs, they can still win the Championship if both France and England lose and they hold a superior points difference.

Points Difference: Like France and England, Ireland’s title hopes may come down to points difference if teams are level on match points at the end of the tournament.

Scotland:

If they defeat France with a bonus point and surpass them on points difference, provided France lose without earning a bonus point.

If they finish ahead of England on points difference, assuming England lose to Wales but earn a bonus point.

They surpass Ireland on points difference if Ireland draw or lose to Italy while collecting two bonus points.

In this scenario, Scotland would finish on 16 points, with the title decided by points difference.

Here’s how we see things playing out:

Italy v Ireland

When: Saturday, 15 March – 16:15 SAST

How quickly things can change. From closing in on an unprecedented three-peat and a Grand Slam, Ireland dropped from the top of the table to third with their heavy defeat at home to France last weekend.

They’ll put on brave faces this week, but they’ll know they’ve all but let the title slip. All they can do now is take out their anger on Italy, secure a full house and see how the chips fall.

Italy bounced back pretty well from their 73-24 hiding by the French with a strong first-half performance against England last weekend. They trailed just 21-17 at the break before the hosts pulled away in the second half for a 47-24 win.

The Azzurri will score a couple of good tries but will leak more to go down to an irritated Ireland.

Prediction: Ireland by 21.
Suggested Bet: Ireland -19.5 at 1.80.

Wales v England

When: Saturday, 15 March – 18:45 SAST

With England having everything to play for, poor Wales are in for more disappointment.

After their encouraging first outing under caretaker coach Matt Sherratt against Ireland in Round Three, things started badly in Edinburgh last weekend but they showed good fighting spirit to only lose by six in the end.

Being back home, they’ll be especially fired up and will look to snap their record 16-match losing streak to avoid a second successive winless championship campaign and wooden spoon.

A team on the up, England have landed on some good combinations and are gelling more than they have in recent memory. They’re high on momentum and confidence and know they need a bonus point victory to put some pressure on France, so they’ll be locked in and leave Cardiff with maximum points.

Prediction: England by 14.
Suggested Bet: England -11.5 at 1.90.

France v Scotland

When: Saturday, 15 March – 22:00 SAST

Simply irresistible in their record win in Dublin, France turned the tournament on its head and is now in perfect position to end Ireland’s reign as the kings of the north.

Scotland also came to the party against Wales but did drop off in the final quarter. Still, Finn Russell’s return to form – plus Antoine Dupont’s injury-enforced absence – will give Scottish supporters hope that their team can do the improbable in Paris.

The reality, however, is that the French forwards are too big and strong for the Scots to handle. They’re a colossal wrecking crew who do the hard yards up front so their backs can flourish. The loss of Dupont is a massive blow, but like they showed in Dublin, they’re not a one-man team.

Scotland may have their moments, but France should march to glory.

Prediction: France by 19.
Suggested Bet: France -17.5 at 1.90.